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European football preview

B Dortmund v E Frankfurt (Over 2.5 goals)
Borussia Dortmund’s 4-3 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Saturday was the 17th successive league and cup game in which Dortmund were involved in a game with three or more goals scored. The last time they featured in a game with under 2.5 goals was on October 26 when they were held to a rare goalless draw at Schalke. Dortmund’s last 12 league games has seen a total of 60 goals scored at an average of five per game. This weekend, Dortmund host Eintracht Frankfurt at the Westfalenstadion in a game that could well see three or more goals scored. Frankfurt’s last two games in the German Cup and the league have seen a total of four and five goals respectively. They beat RB Leipzig 3-1 to reach the quarter-finals of the German Cup while they scored five goals without reply at home to Augsburg in the league last Friday night. When the two sides met earlier this season, they shared the points after a 2-2 draw in Frankfurt. It was the seventh time in the last eight meetings in which these two sides combined for three or more goals. And in those eight encounters, there were goals for both Dortmund and Frankfurt which is another bet that should be considered.

Sampdoria v Fiorentina (BTTS)
Fiorentina travel to Sampdoria with both sides in need of a win to help move them away from the wrong end of the Serie A table. Sampdoria sit 16th, four points clear of the relegation zone while Fiorentina are two points and two places better off after 23 games of the 38-game season. When these two sides play against each other, they usually produce entertaining games with goals for both sides. The last nine meetings have seen goals for both teams including the reverse fixture this season when Fiorentina claimed a 2-1 win at the Artemio Franchi Stadium against a Sampdoria side reduced to 10 men in the 54th minute. Two of Fiorentina’s last three games in all competitions have seen BTTS land while four of the last five league games Sampdoria have played has seen goals for both them and their opponents. There is also a chance this game could see over 2,5 total goals scored based on recent trends and historic data. Six of the seven meetings have seen a minimum of three match goals scored while four of Sampdoria’s last five have seen at least three goals scored including their 3-1 win at Torino last Saturday. Fiorentina’s 2-1 defeat at home to Atalanta was their third successive game in which three or more goals had been scored.

Athletic Bilbao v Osasuna (BTTS)
In Spain, Osasuna can move level with their weekend opponents Athletic Bilbao if they can get the win at San Mames. There is a very good chance this game could see at least one goal for each team given the fact the last four meetings there has been goals for both Bilbao and Osasuna. That includes Bilbao’s 2-1 win at Osasuna on November 24 when Kenan Kodro scored the winner 11 minutes from time. Four of the last five La Liga games Bilbao have played have seen goals for both Bilbao and the team they have been playing and that includes their 2-1 defeat at Real Sociedad last Sunday. It was the eighth league game in which Bilbao failed to win. As for Osasuna, Sunday’s 4-1 defeat at home to Real Madrid was the fourth time in the last five league and cup games they had been involved in a game where BTTS has landed. Both Osasuna and Bilbao have scored in nine of their last 10 league and cup games so scoring is not a problem.

Vitesse Arnhem v Heerenveen (BTTS)
One of the most remarkable stats coming out of European football involves Dutch Eredivisie side Heerenveen. When Sherel Floranus equalised in their 1-1 draw at home to VVV Venlo, it took their total of games in which there were goals for both teams to 13. The last time the Super Frisians were not involved in a game when both they and their opponents found each other’s net was on October 5 when they beat Zwolle 1-0 at the Abe Lenstra Stadion. This weekend, Heerenveen travel to Arnhem where they will face Vitesse, When they two sides met earlier this season, the two sides combined for five goals as Heerenveen came from 2-0 down to win 3-2. That was the sixth time in their last seven meetings in which each team scored against the other and includes the last four. Vitesse Arnhem’s last home game ended in a 1-1 draw when FC Emmen were the visitors to GelreDome. It won’t surprise many people if this game finishes with goals for both sides.

Spread Knowledge announces alpha launch today

We are constantly working to make Spread Knowledge the hub of the sports betting analytics community. We’re happy to announce that we’re entering the next phase of making this vision a reality. Today we’re launching the Alpha release of the Spread Knowledge product.

We have spent the last 10 weeks overhauling the app and navigation, ensuring they are fun to use, easy to understand and, of course, an offering that enables you to become a winning bettor.  Our app now is significantly improved. We’ve simplified numbers and widgets while addressing some key transparency issues.

Here are some of the new feature highlights:

New Value Pick Key + Filter – you can now easily view the past results for each letter grade at the top of most picks pages.  Here is an example where you can see the positive recent performance of A’s and B’s, but a negative performance of the C’s and D’s.  These letters also function as a filter mechanism, allowing you to focus on certain letter picks. For example, you now can filter tools such as “Value Picks” to only display A’s or B’s.

Following Systems – we have consolidated and cleaned up the Systems pages. The “Leaderboard” and “Follow Systems” now are one and the same.  Now there is one place where you can easily click FOLLOW to subscribe and receive the picks a top-performing system makes as soon as they are made.  Once that system machine or user confirms a pick on Spread Knowledge, that pick immediately will be sent to you if you have subscribed to FOLLOW them.  It’s easier than ever to follow the top systems and always be up to date with the top value picks from each sport or league.

All SK Pick History – we now publish all of our machine picks across all 100 machine systems that Spread Knowledge follows.  Transparency and trust is the key to a long-term winning sports betting system.  Now you can easily view all our picks to validate and prove that our machine systems highlight key value positions and consistently win over time.

These are just the first wave of improvements and additions we have in store for Spread Knowledge. We hope you like them and are able to use them to become an even more profitable, winning bettor.

Are there any changes you don’t like or have questions about? Is there anything else you’d like to see us add? Give us a shout at support@wp.spreadknowledge.com at any time. We’d love to hear from you and help you with your betting adventures.

SpreadKnowledge NBA Value Pick of the Day – Christmas Day, Wednesday, December 25th, 2019

Merry Christmas, everyone! There’s an exciting slate of NBA games on offer and our resident basketball expert is here to share his favorite picks with you to help you win some extra holiday cash.

Video Blog

Top picks: 

– B+: Boston (-160) over Toronto
– B+: Clippers (-108) over Lakers
– B+: New Orleans-Denver UNDER 219.5

Watch the video above to learn why he likes these bets.

For additional picks and analytics that will help you place winning bets this Christmas, hop into the Spread Knowledge app now.

Easily view our past historical results by using our new Key Filters highlighted here to drill down on A/B+ picks.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Betting Value Pick of the Day – Tuesday, October 22nd, 2019

After a regular season defined by home runs, it’s fitting that the 2019 World Series will feature some of the greatest starting pitching matchups in recent postseason history.

Three-time Cy Young-winner Max Scherzer will lock horns with this year’s AL Cy Young front-runner Gerrit Cole in an epic Game 1 showdown.

The Spread Knowledge MLB System thinks pitchers will indeed rule the game. The pick with the highest Trend Value Grade is betting the UNDER of 7 total runs scored. This pick sports a B+ Trend Value Score, with a predicted win rate of more than 55%.

Conversely, picking the OVER for 7 total runs scored has a C+ rating, with a 39% predicted win rate.

Other stats of interest:

  • Both pitchers were among the Top 10 ERA Leaders.
  • Scherzer and Cole ranked #1 and #2 in both FIP and K/9.
  • Cole led all of baseball with a 79% Quality Start rate. Scherzer’s impressive 63% Quality Start rate checked in at 63%.
  • In 67 combined starts, spanning both the regular season and playoffs, these pitchers have only allowed 4 runs or more 10 times combined. (15%).

By any measurement, these are two of the very best – if not the best – pitchers in all of baseball. Thus far, their regular season domination has carried over to the postseason.

The Spread Knowledge MLB System likes it, and we like it. We recommend betting UNDER 7 total runs scored for Game 1 of the 2019 World Series.

Want to see all of the Spread Knowledge MLB System’s picks? Start a free trial now.

SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day – Sunday, September 15

[8:20 p.m. EST] Under 52.5 – Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons

The SpreadKnowledge NFL Free Pick of the Day comes from the total on the Eagles-Falcons game on Sunday night. We’re taking the over, considering both teams have prolific offensive attacks that’ll get us where we need to go — over the total.

Both teams got off to slow starts in Week 1, but only the Eagles were able to catch themselves before falling on their faces. The Eagles overcame a 17-0 deficit and won by the score of 32-27 over the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Falcons fell behind 28-0 to the Vikings, and eventually lost 28-12, with their two touchdowns basically meaning nothing.

Carson Wentz shook off an early slow start to rebound 313 yards and three touchdowns. That shaky open made sense, though, considering he didn’t play any snaps during the preseason. Once things got going, Wentz was able to connect with WR DeSean Jackson for eight catches, 154 yards and two touchdowns.

The Eagles had a very balanced running attack with the three RBs each toting the rock. Miles Sanders led the way with 11 carries but only notched 25 yards in the process; Darren Sproles (nine carries for 47 yards) and Jordan Howard (six carries for 44 yards) were far more successful on the ground. Running backs typically give the Falcons a ton of issues, so having this talented trio of backs certainly bodes well for them moving the chains.

In reality, both the passing and running games can do a lot here, so that balanced-offense should give over-bettors plenty of optimism in this matchup.

It took Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense a while to finally get some points on the board, but they did eventually in the fourth quarter. With Case Keenum posting 380 passing yards and three touchdowns, expect Atlanta’s offense to have that same type of success. Especially with more dangerous receiving options like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, this should be a great spectacle of moving the ball through the air. Not to mention, Matty Ice has been much better historically at home in Atlanta.

In terms of running the ball, that’s probably not to be an effective way to move up and down the field. Last week, despite leading for more than half the game, the Redskins had 13 carries for 28 yards. Against the Vikings, the Falcons’ running backs didn’t have much success either, toting the rock for 49 yards on 15 carries.

Given how both teams will be moving the ball through the air, it’s only right to take the over in this one. We should have a lot more faith in Matty Ice when he’s playing at home, and that’ll have Wentz leading the Eagles down the field to match him. This should be a fun game to wrap up Sunday’s slate, and the whole country will be able to see it.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Eagles: 30 – Atlanta Falcons: 27

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge NCAAF Free Pick of the Day – Saturday, September 14

[7:00 p.m. EST] Under 46 – #9 Florida Gators (-8) at Kentucky Wildcats

The SpreadKnowledge College Football Free Pick of the day comes to us from the total on the Florida-Kentucky game. We’re taking the under, as we’ll have a backup QB in this game with two ferocious defenses.

Last year, Kentucky got their first win against Florida in over three decades. Let’s not get too excited about a repeat, though, as a certain factor of personnel will likely decide this one. It’ll be a nasty SEC game, but the Gators should be just fine in Lexington.

Felipe Franks had a solid game last week, going 25-for-27 with two touchdowns en route to a 45-0 win. Granted, this week’s opponent will be much tougher, but there is plenty of motivation for Franks to do well. After all, Franks was the QB last year when Florida’s huge win streak against Kentucky ended. There’s no doubt at all that he wants to right those wrongs. Look for him to play a composed game, and the rushing attack to chew some clock up in this matchup.

The Gators’ defense will be instrumental in this game as well. They’ve got tons of playmakers in their back seven and some nasty grinders up front. When Kentucky’s run game gets shut down early, look for the pass rush to start creating some havoc.

QB Terry Wilson was injured in Kentucky’s last game and he’ll miss the rest of the season. Now, they’ll turn to Troy transfer Sawyer Smith, and you have to wonder how he’ll do with a new set of personnel in a marquee game. Florida will bring a lot of pressure his way, and that could be problematic for the new signal-caller.

Kentucky’s defense is pretty solid, and it’ll be able to keep this one close for stretches of this game. Look for this one to be a tough contest for most of the night, but Florida will get it done at the end.

* Final Score Prediction * Florida Gators: 24 – Kentucky Wildcats: 16

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Friday, September 13

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (13-5, 3.06 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (10-7, 4.06 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us on the total from the Dodgers-Mets game on Friday. We’re taking the over here, considering both of these marquee names starting on the mound have had some troubles of late.

It’s that time of the year, where Clayton Kershaw starts to take a dip in performance. What’s even more strange is that he’s allowed nine homers over his last 22 innings of work.

Tonight, he’ll be facing a Mets team that owns the sixth-best weighted on-base average (.342) in MLB against left-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, this will be the third of four consecutive starts where New York will be facing a lefty starter. Considering this team is in a groove against lefties, and still in the Wild Card hunt, we could certainly see Kershaw struggle once again.

Speaking of struggling, Noah Syndergaard will take the mound for the Mets. While the Dodgers haven’t been playing a ton of meaningful baseball over the last few weeks, this is a good litmus test for them as they head towards the postseason.

Syndergaard has really struggled in two of his last three starts, and the Dodgers have more than a few capable bats to put pressure on him.

All in all, 7.5 runs is not a tough number to hit at all. While there are two infamous names on the mound, the value is just not adding up for bettors to go under the total here.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Mets: 6 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Thursday, September 12

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -130)
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (12-8, 4.87 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (18-5, 2.52 ERA/0.77 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. We like Houston to cover the run-line in this one.

This series has been absolutely crazy, as the Astros opened with 15 runs and the A’s answered back the next night with 21. Oakland even took last night’s meeting, giving them a 5-2 record against Houston over the last seven meetings. It’s time for the Astros to take one back – in convincing fashion.

Justin Verlander has faced some weak competition of late, but he didn’t make the schedule. In fact, he’s done his job and then some, allowing four hits or less in five straight starts. Verlander has simply owned Oakland this season, posted a 2-0 record and 1.29 ERA in three starts – a span of 21 innings. Look for him to do the same tonight.

It won’t be easy for the A’s, considering they’ll be facing one of MLB’s best. Even more evident is how much they’ve struggled against him, scoring only three runs in 21 innings.

Homer Bailey has been effective in his last few outings, but his last against the Astros – not so much. In that outing, he allowed nine runs in two innings en route to an 11-1 win for Houston. While Bailey has gotten away with facing lesser teams, the Astros are certainly not one of them.

Right-handed batters are hitting .304 (compared to .220) against Bailey this season, and the Astros have plenty of them. Guys like George Springer, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman can get the party popping in no time. Look for them to hop on Bailey early and often, just as they did last time they faced him.

We’ve got plenty of narratives to foresee the Astros clubbing the A’s tonight. Look for them to get to Bailey early and often, giving Verlander more than enough run support.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, September 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce our reduced prices! The packages are now going for:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: +112) at Philadelphia Phillies
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (7-5, 3.47 ERA/1.32 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.31 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Braves-Phillies game on Wednesday. We’re taking Atlanta to cover the 1.5-run spread in this matchup, considering the mismatch of starting pitchers.

Dallas Keuchel has tossed five straight quality starts (all ATL wins), and this coming at the right time as the Braves head down the stretch. His only outing against the Phillies this season went well on a personal level, allowing two runs over seven innings, but the lefty did take the loss in that one.

If Keuchel does have a knock, though, it’s his performance on the road – 3-4 record/5.26 ERA in seven starts, compared to 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts at home.

Zach Eflin has pitched well in his last three starts, albeit against lesser competition. That won’t help him tonight against a Braves team that has absolutely roped him this season for 14 hits (4 HR, .467 opposing batting average) and 17 runs (12 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings.

Eflin’s problems have mostly come against left-handed batters, and the Braves have plenty of pop from that side of the plate. In fact, lefties are crushing Eflin this season to the tune of a .529 slugging percentage and .876 OPS.

Six of the seven Braves’ wins against the Phillies have come by two runs or more, including each of the last five. Not to mention, Atlanta has won six of its last nine meetings with Philly.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 6 – Philadelphia Phillies: 3

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, September 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
You can sign up to grab the best analytics in the business at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Also, we’re happy to announce that we’re reducing prices this week before the start of NFL season. The prices on our packages are now going from:

– Member + AI Boost: $90.00 to $60.00/month
– Member: $30.00 to $20.00/month
– BRAND NEW FREE PACKAGE: (find details on website)

* Use the Promo Code (SK15OFF) for an additional 15% off your subscription for the next 6 months *

 

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
OAK: Tanner Roark – R (9-8, 3.86 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (13-4, 3.35 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Astros game. Houston absolutely clobbered Oakland by the score of 15-0 last night, taking an 11-0 lead after two innings.

Each of the last two Astros’ games has been quite silly, to say the least. The AL West leaders have now scored a total of 36 runs over the last two games, outscoring their opponents 36-1. Yikes!

While the A’s got destroyed last night, they do hit left-handed pitching well and did post a double-digit number of runs in two games late last week.
Tanner Roark has been outstanding since coming to Oakland, but fly-ball pitchers don’t tend to do well with the small dimensions at Minute Maid Park. Just as we saw last night, the Astros jumped all over a very good pitcher in Mike Fiers, and tonight’s matchup against Roark is another one they can certainly take advantage of.

Wade Miley has done a great job against the A’s this season, posting a 1.83 ERA in three meetings. However, Miley didn’t even record an out in his last start against the lowly Mariners, and that has to be a cause for concern heading into a matchup against a desperate team looking to rebound.

You can make the argument that Houston will cover 10 runs all by itself. Taking the Astros has plenty of value here, but it’s tough to fully trust Miley after that last start against the Mariners. We should have more faith in runs being scored, with a few homers being hit in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Houston Astros: 10 – Oakland Athletics: 5