Tag: Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 36-27-2 (57.1%) *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (-102)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (1-1, 2.37 ERA)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-0, 2.80 ERA)

Marco Gonzales has been fantastic at T-Mobile Park this season, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts there. The Cubs have been quite good against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the Top-10 of most categories, but they do have a big series against the rival Cardinals starting Friday afternoon. Perhaps, Gonzales catches a Chicago team looking ahead to its next series and continues that string of dominance at home.

Jon Lester will be pitching about 35 miles from the place he attended high school (Tacoma, WA) as a teenager — could be some distractions with family, ticket requests, etc. In his last start, Lester returned from a two-week stint on the Injured List and looked great in five limited innings against the Dodgers. However, if the Cubs hold him to about 79 pitches once again, that means their bullpen will present in this game. And that’s a good thing for the Mariners, considering the Cub’s pen has the second-worst SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days. Additionally, the Seattle’s offense has the second-best analytical metrics against left-handed pitching this season, which could certainly make life even more difficult on Lester.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, -120)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (1-0, 3.93 ERA)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (2-0, 5.68 ERA)

OK, let’s try this again. I took the Phillies on the 1.5-run line yesterday and that was an absolute disaster. Part of that could be due to the Tigers changing their starting pitcher mid-day, thus not giving Philly enough time to prepare for Spencer Turnbull.

It’s about damn time that Aaron Nola gets back on the good foot. He hasn’t had that trademark ace-start since Opening Day, although, holding the Marlins to one run in that last start still came at the expense of allowing seven hits. However, the Tigers own the third-worst power metrics (ISO: .141) and fifth-worst weighted on-base percentage (wOBA: .290) against right-handed pitching. Nola has been fantastic at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career, compiling a 25-14 record to go along with a 3.17 ERA in 50 career starts there.

The total on this game dropped an entire run, as did each team’s IRT (Tigers: -0.7, Phillies: -0.4), so I believe that’s even further evidence that Nola gets back to elite form tonight. Not to mention, the Phils -245 moneyline number is BY FAR their highest of the season and their 42-digit increase on the moneyline since the open is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins
CLE: Corey Kluber – R (2-2, 5.81 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (2-0, 2.17 ERA)

This is an excellent pitching matchup going down in Miami tonight, and it’s quite interesting to note that Caleb Smith is actually the one coming in on a high note – not Corey Kluber. Smith has been dazzling tough NL East opponents in each of his five starts, the last four being of the quality variety. In fact, Smith has allowed 2 runs or fewer in four of those five starts. The Indians’ offense has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the bottom five of most major categories in that split.

Kluber, much like Nola (who I talked about earlier), needs to get back on the good foot to elite form. Aside from Opening Day (again like Nola), Kluber really hasn’t had that trademark ace-start that we’re all so accustomed to. Thankfully, he’ll be taking on a National League team, which takes away the DH, and it helps that the Marlins are one of (if not) the worst offensive team in baseball.

So, we’ve got two talented pitchers against two anemic offenses. No reason to get cute here, especially with the game total dropping a half-run to 6.5. Also, the Indians’ IRT (-0.5) and moneyline (-34 digits) both dropped significantly, thus alluding to yet another good outing by Smith. I don’t think the Marlins rough up Kluber, but it does seem like they could pull the upset in a low-scoring game tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, April 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

– MLB Season Record: 35-24-2 (59.3%)

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +100)
DET: Tyson Ross – R (1-3, 4.03 ERA)
PHI: Vince Velasquez – R (1-0, 1.99 ERA)

Vince Velasquez has been outstanding to the start the season, allowing only five runs over 22 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.01. Tonight, he’ll take the mound against a Tigers team that has scored the fewest runs (91) in the American League – third-worst overall. Detroit also ranks fourth-worst in K-rate (26.6%) against right-handed pitching.

The value for Philly on the 1.5-run line (+100) is fantastic, compared to the -210 moneyline to win outright. There’s a noticeable difference of talent between each of these lineups, so I’m rolling with the Phils who are 11-5 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-120) – St. Louis Cardinals (-106) at Washington Nationals
STL: Adam Wainwright – R (2-2, 3.96 ERA)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-3, 6.00 ERA)

Anibal Sanchez and his 1.78 WHIP run into a hot Cardinals team that has won eight of their last nine games. In fact, Sanchez has allowed at least eight baserunners in all five of his starts this season. It’s a likely scenario that St. Louis exceeds the 9.5 total all by itself, considering the Nationals also have the league’s worst bullpen.

Adam Wainwright hasn’t been terrible this season, but it’s not like he’s been immaculate either. His last outing against the Brewers inspired some hope, yet most of his better starts came against doormats like the Padres and Pirates. I’d expect Wainwright to cough up some runs, but surely not as many as Sanchez and the Nationals’ bullpen.

The IRT increased slightly for both teams, with the total jumping up a half-run to 9.5, so Vegas is liking a high-scoring game in DC tonight. Not to mention, the -120 juice on the over is quite telling, especially with it only being -102 on the under. The SK Value Pick trends also have the highest grade of the night on the Cardinals to win outright, so we’ve got a nice double-dip on our hands!

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 9 – Washington Nationals: 6 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 (-108) – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (2-0, 5.25 ERA)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-2, 3.65 ERA)

Well, I had Over 8 in this game last night and was let down big time by both squads. The Giants had baserunners on all night, but couldn’t get them around to score – they actually got all three of their runs on one swing, of course. The Dodgers had the potential for a massive sixth inning but a line drive, which would have scored two more runs, got caught and turned into a double play. Ugh, is all I have to say about that.

It’s a new day, though, as Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers. His 5.25 ERA is a bit skewed, considering the tough level of competition he’s gone against – the Reds were his easiest opponent and it’s no surprise that was his best start of the season. The Giants have MLB’s second-worst wOBA (.275) against right-handed pitching this season, so I’d expect Buehler to have a fantastic night and possibly begin a long string of quality starts in the process.

Drew Pomeranz has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season. One of those starts was against these same Dodgers, and Pomeranz allowed two runs over five innings. The Dodgers do have the eighth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching this season, so that lends some more optimism to the under in this game.

All in all, we do have two viable pitchers in one of the league’s worst parks for offense and teams with two of the lower IRTs on the slate. Not to mention, the SK Value Pick trends have a B+ grade for the under for this game. Vegas dropped the Dodgers’ IRT -0.5 quite early on today, which subsequently moved the total from 7.5 to 7.0. Defense! (clap, clap) Defense!

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* MLB Picks have been running hot this season, going 22-11-2 in the Value Bets article! *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (1-1, 7.47 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (2-1, 2.25 ERA)

Zack Wheeler had his best outing of the season last time out, so I guess his key to success is just not facing the Nationals? Maybe not, but Wheeler does have solid have numbers against most of the Phils’ lineup and should be able to build off that last performance.

Jake Arrieta has only allowed five runs over his first 20 innings of the season and finally kept the walks to a minimum after allowing six of them on a chilly Sunday night game against the Braves.

The Mets will be without leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo and that could be an issue for a team that relies on his hustle, with not much of that coming from anywhere else in the lineup. Also, the Phils will be without one of their best hitters, Jean Segura.

The bullpens have been used quite a bit over the last few days, so I’d expect both starters to go six (maybe even seven) innings today and be masterful in the process. Not to mention, we have already seen a total of 30 runs in the first two games of this series – we’re due for an under.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3 *

[1:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
STL: Michael Wacha – R (0-0, 5.28 ERA)
MIL: Corbin Burnes – R (0-1, 10.05 ERA)

The Brewers and Cardinals have faced each other six times already this season, all at Miller Park, and combined to score at least nine runs in five of those games. Well, be prepared to see it happen for the sixth time in seven games.

Michael Wacha is putting a ton of runners on base (1.83 WHIP) and that’s just not a good recipe for success against the Brewers, who rank fifth in RBI (96) and seventh in on-base percentage (.347) in MLB. To make the over even more glamorous, Corbin Burnes is also putting guys on base (1.88 WHIP) and he’s allowed three homers in each of his three starts this season. There will be plenty of baserunners, with great offenses to knock them in.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 8 – Milwaukee Brewers: 7 *

MLB Betting Preview for Saturday, April 6 (Afternoon Games)

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets  – Total: 7
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 1.69 ERA)

The total of seven is quite interesting in this game, as both pitchers haven’t had too much success against each of these teams. Matz is 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Nationals, while Corbin is 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA in nine starts (10 appearances) against the Mets. Not to mention, both teams had a day of rest yesterday, while the Mets’ bullpen has a 5.21 ERA this season and the Nats’ bullpen has an MLB-worst 10.38 ERA.

It should be no surprise that I’m rolling with the over in this game…

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 4

[2:05 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (-150) – Total: 8
MIN: Michael Pineda – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

Arrieta struggled with some control issues in his season debut but still managed to wiggle out by giving up only one run. It’s the offense behind him, though, that makes the Phillies such an appealing bet. After all, they have scored at least eight runs in all but one of their six games this season.

Those bats will need to be sharp today against Pineda, who is a very talented pitcher but also has a tight leash as he eases his way back to a normal workload after missing nearly a year and a half.

All in all, the Phils are a more talented team and should take over late when these teams end up going to their respective bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-110) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8.5
SEA: Mike Leake – R (1-0, 3.00 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (1-0, 2.70 ERA)

In yesterday’s preview for this matchup, I mentioned the White Sox defense could be in serious trouble with eight errors (fourth-worst in MLB) over five games. Well, it ended up being the Mariners’ defense that cost their team the loss, with three errors, now totaling an MLB-worst 16 of them in nine games.

So, two teams that have been terrible on defense… what could go wrong? Everything, and that’s why I’m going with the over once again in this matchup. Six of Seattle’s nine games have gone over the total, while five of Chicago’s six games have done the same. Not to mention, a few of these White Sox hitters have hit Leake well when they’ve seen him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5