SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, September 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

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[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: +112) at Philadelphia Phillies
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (7-5, 3.47 ERA/1.32 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.31 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Braves-Phillies game on Wednesday. We’re taking Atlanta to cover the 1.5-run spread in this matchup, considering the mismatch of starting pitchers.

Dallas Keuchel has tossed five straight quality starts (all ATL wins), and this coming at the right time as the Braves head down the stretch. His only outing against the Phillies this season went well on a personal level, allowing two runs over seven innings, but the lefty did take the loss in that one.

If Keuchel does have a knock, though, it’s his performance on the road – 3-4 record/5.26 ERA in seven starts, compared to 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts at home.

Zach Eflin has pitched well in his last three starts, albeit against lesser competition. That won’t help him tonight against a Braves team that has absolutely roped him this season for 14 hits (4 HR, .467 opposing batting average) and 17 runs (12 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings.

Eflin’s problems have mostly come against left-handed batters, and the Braves have plenty of pop from that side of the plate. In fact, lefties are crushing Eflin this season to the tune of a .529 slugging percentage and .876 OPS.

Six of the seven Braves’ wins against the Phillies have come by two runs or more, including each of the last five. Not to mention, Atlanta has won six of its last nine meetings with Philly.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 6 – Philadelphia Phillies: 3

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Wednesday, September 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
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In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

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[6:40 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (12-4, 3.45 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
CIN: Trevor Bauer – R (10-12, 4.53 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

The Phillies missed a golden opportunity to inch closer to the Cubs over the weekend, but they’ve won three straight games now to at least keep pace. While the Reds have fallen out of the playoff race, there is some motivation to not get completely clobbered in this series – tomorrow afternoon is the series finale. The over has seen plenty of bets early on for tonight’s total, but there might be a few reasons why that’s the wrong move.

We’re going with the under of 8.5 runs for the SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day.

Aaron Nola has stayed true to form as one of the best pitchers in baseball, allowing three runs or fewer in all six of his starts since the beginning of August. This is the time when Philly needs him most, as they try and make this last-month push towards the playoffs. As for Nola against Cincy, this is a matchup that has worked well before, considering its current roster owns a .171 batting average and four extra-base hits against him 82 career plate appearances.

The trade for Trevor Bauer to Cincy certainly hasn’t been one the team can be happy about. However, there’s something about Great American Ballpark that’s sitting well with him this season – even as a member of the Reds. In three starts there this season, Bauer owns a 2-1 record and 1.71 ERA/0.86 WHIP while striking out 31 batters – a span of 21 innings.

While Bauer’s numbers with the Reds aren’t great, it’s hard to ignore the success he’s had at Great American Ballpark this season. Nola is on top of his game and the Reds have only scored three runs in the first two games of this series.

We’ve had pre-game double-digit totals in the first two games of this series, and both games fell exactly at eight runs. So, with the 8.5-run total in tonight’s game, we’re going to see it fall just short of that number once again.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Sunday, September 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
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In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

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[7:00 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: +105)
NYM: Marcus Stroman – R (1-1, 4.91 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.50 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Mets-Phillies game on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Philly will be looking to avoid the sweep, and that’s why we’re taking them on the moneyline.

Zach Eflin got back on the good foot in his last start against the Marlins, going six innings while allowing only two runs en route to getting the win.

The Mets’ offense tends to love hitting at Citizens Bank Park, so the Phils will have to counter with some runs of their own. That’s certainly doable against Marcus Stroman, who still has yet to have that signature start as a member of the Mets.

Stroman has his struggles with control at times, and the Phils are a very disciplined and patient team at the plate. Look for them to put a few guys on base tonight and make Stroman pay for his mistakes.

We say it all the time – “The most dangerous baseball team is a desperate one.” With the season entering the final month, look for the Phils to have a sense of urgency and get this win tonight.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – New York Mets: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Friday, August 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 216-162-10 (57%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: -116) at Miami Marlins
PHI: Vince Velasquez – R (5-7, 4.35 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
MIA: Hector Noesi – R (0-3, 9.39 ERA/1.50 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Marlins-Phillies game on Friday night. We like Philly to cover the 1.5-run line, especially with two teams trending in very opposite directions.

Vince Velasquez has looked much better since that stint that landed him in the bullpen for an abbreviated time, especially of late. The right-hander has now allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last five starts, and we should probably expect that to be six in a row, considering he’ll be facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Marlins also own dreadful .276 weighted on-base average, .094 ISO (power metric) and 30% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

While Velasquez doesn’t typically have a long leash, that’ll work just fine for us tonight. No other bullpen in baseball has a lower ERA (1.80) and only three have a lower xFIP (3.66) over the last 14 days.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Marlins’ bullpen has the worst ERA (9.57) and second-worst xFIP (6.53) over the same span. And they’ll likely be needed quite a bit tonight, considering Hector Noesi has allowed at least five runs in all three of his outings this season.

All in all, this is a Phillies team that looks poised to make that run that we’ve all been waiting on. Tonight, down in Miami, is a great place to keep things rolling and they should do just that.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – Miami Marlins: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 212-156-10 (58%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (11-3, 3.56 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (1-1, 6.45 ERA/2.01 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Phillies-Red Sox interleague showdown. It’s quite interesting to see Boston favored in this game, considering the mismatch of starting pitching, on paper, for Philly. With that being said, we’re taking the over with the thought that more than a few runs will be scored on Tuesday night.

Over the last 21 days, both teams have been doing well against the handedness of starting pitcher they’ll be facing tonight. The Phillies .363 weighted on-base average/.200 ISO (power metric) and Red Sox .383 weighted on-base average/.249 ISO certainly paint a nice picture for the scoreboard being lit up.

Aaron Nola typically gets a sizeable moneyline when facing a low-end starter, so there’s plenty of reason to think things won’t go his way tonight. After all, his 4.63 ERA on the road is quite larger than the 2.94 ERA he posts at Citizens Bank Park.

Brian Johnson doesn’t usually go deep into games, and tonight probably won’t be much different. He’s only maxed out at five innings once this season and gone a total of 8 2/3 innings over the last three starts.

All in all, it’s wise to be skeptical of the line that has been placed in front us. Look for the Red Sox to get to Nola early and then hang some more runs on the Phils’ bullpen. These are two of the more dynamic offenses in baseball, and they’ll show us why this evening.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 9 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 210-149-10 (58.5%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 45-17-4 record over the last 66 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -105)

SD: Dinelson Lamet – R (1-2, 3.86 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (7-11, 4.49 ERA/1.37 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Phillies winning over the Padres. Philly is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now with four straight wins, scoring 30 runs over that stretch. San Diego has lost four of its last five games.

Zach Eflin could very well be the key to this victory tonight. After all, he’s pitched much better of late since going to the bullpen and this will be his first start since the move. Eflin had a string of bad outings against quality opponents like the Braves, Dodgers and Mets, but the Padres team he’ll be facing tonight has woeful .274 weighted on-base average, .151 ISO (power metric) and 34% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

When looking at this matchup, Vegas is giving a bit more credit to Dinelson Lamet than it should. Granted, he is one of the talented up-and-coming arms in baseball, but Lamet does have control issues from time-to-time and hasn’t really gone that deep into games since returning from a 15-month layoff from Tommy John surgery.

As we mentioned at the top, Philly’s offense is rocking and rolling right now and this comes just a few days after former Phillies coach Charlie Manuel took over as the new hitting coach. Philly has been solid in general against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting .349 xwOBA (quality of contact) numbers – their .305 weighted on-base average in that time frame shows how unlucky they had been, and now that success has finally come around.

This could very well end up being a close game, but the value we’re getting on Philly is just too much to pass up. Look for this game to get off to a slow start offensively, but the Phils to take control late and come out victorious.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 130-111-5 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m.] New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-3, 4.09 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (9-2, 2.36 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

Vegas already set this one up for a pitcher’s duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 7.5, and both sides got massive IRT decreases as well — Yankees: -0.6, Rays: -0.4.

James Paxton will match up well against a Rays’ team that has the second-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching this season. Even against decent competition, Paxton has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.

Charlie Morton has been straight up filthy, allowing one run or fewer in four of his last six starts. The Yanks do have some hitters like Breyvic Valera and Austine Romine which will downgrade their lineup a bit, but Morton’s stuff is among the best in MLB.

Look for these two guys to duel it out against each other and give their respective bullpens a little more rest heading into the All-Star break.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[1:10 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (7-2, 3.89 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (8-5, 4.42 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

These two just dueled it out last week before the bullpens ruined everything. In fact, Vegas thinks we’ll be seeing yet another duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 8.0, with the Phils IRT decreasing -0.3 and the Mets at -0.2.

Aaron Nola is 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA/1.13 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Mets. He has just been flat out amazing over the last three starts, allowing only two runs (one earned) over the last 23 innings.

Zach Wheeler has handled the Phillies well over the course of his career, going 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA/1.07 WHIP against them in 13 career starts. It looks like the consistency is finally starting to round back to form at the right time, allowing only four runs over the 19 1/3 innings.

The two bullpens looked great last night, and the Phils’ has been even more impressive in this whole series. Ultimately, I feel like that gives them the edge today, but the under is where the money is at.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 128-110-4 (53.8%) *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-2, 4.22 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (1-1, 5.06 ERA/1.78 WHIP)

Vegas already made its statement on this game by giving the Phillies a massive 0.5 IRT increase. Not to mention, the Braves had the second-largest moneyline decrease of the day – not a good sign of things to come.

Aaron Nola has always done well against the Braves, and he comes into tonight’s matchup in peak form. The All-Star righty is 8-3 lifetime against Atlanta with a 2.46 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 14 starts. Nola has allowed only run and an 0.60 WHIP over his last 15 innings while striking out 20 hitters.

Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Braves and his return to baseball hasn’t exactly been great. In each of his two starts, Keuchel has allowed eight hits and three earned runs. Not to mention, Philly advanced metrics against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days is something we want a part of. The Phils have a massive .361 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties in that span of time.

Philly is averaging just under 7.5 runs per game over their last seven, so having that recency bias and Nola with a great history against the Braves makes this bet all the sweeter.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Atlanta Braves: 2

[10:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-5, 4.75 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
SEA: Matt Carasiti – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

The top rating from the SK Trend Confidence comes to us from the Great Northwest. The over in tonight’s game is looking like a firm position, given how bad the pitching for Seattle has been. Matt Carasiti has been fine in limited work, but he’ll be handing the game off to Wade LeBlanc afterward — and that’s the best possible thing we’re looking for.

For whatever reason, the Cardinals just hit right-handed pitching much better — that’s just how it is. They’ll be able to take advantage of that later in the game, but LeBlanc’s basic style will suit them well early on.

I really like the future that Jack Flaherty has ahead of him, but things just haven’t been working out early on this season. In fact, things have been much worse on the road, where he owns a massive 6.68 ERA. Flaherty is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing nine hits (three homers and seven runs over 4 2/3 innings.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 122-105-4 (53.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -155)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.75 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
PHI: Nick Pivetta – R (4-2, 5.54 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

We’ve been on the right side of this total in the first two games of the Phils-Mets series, so let’s keep the train moving. The Phils already owned the highest IRT (5.6) on the night slate and that has now been boosted by slate-high +0.6 increase. Good things are coming for Philly tonight and the visitors should be able to tack enough runs on to have the total go over.

Jason Vargas takes the mound for the Mets and he’ll be facing a Phils’ offense that is absolutely locked in at the plate in the first two games of this series. For all the struggles Philly had recently, their .418 wOBA and .288 ISO against left-handed pitching are absolutely magnificent. Vargas hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in each of his last two starts and is averaging just under five innings per start this season.

We should see plenty of the Mets bullpen, and the 20 runs scored by Philly in the first two games of this series have shined an even brighter light on how bad they’ve been. Look for more of the same tonight.

Nick Pivetta has struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, allowing 15 hits/five walks, 10 runs and five homers in 12 innings of work. Despite coughing up numerous runs, the Mets have always been able to them on the board at Citizens Bank Park. Look for the right-handed bats to do most of the damage against Pivetta, as they have a .337 batting average and 1.000 OPS in 102 plate appearances against him this season.

Philly’s bullpen was solid last night, but they have been a shaky unit overall this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets get a couple of extra runs against them either.

All in all, we should see plenty of runs for the third-consecutive night – and most of them coming from the Philly side.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
TEX: Mike Minor – L (7-4, 2.52 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.61 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

We’ll have dueling lefties at Comerica Park tonight as two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball will square off. Vegas adjusted the total down from 9.0 to 8.5 and the IRTs dipped for both teams: Rangers: -0.5, Tigers: -0.1.

Mike Minor has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts – he’s allowed two runs or fewer eight times, one run or fewer six times and no runs in two of those outings. So far in the month of June, Minor has a 2-0 record and 1.93 ERA over four starts.

The Tigers’ numbers are slightly below average against lefties over the last 21 days with a .325 wOBA, and I see them having an even tougher time against Minor.

On the other side, Matt Boyd will look to get back on track after a few mediocre/rough outings against quality opponents in three of his last four. The caveat here is the Rangers’ woeful .260 wOBA, .098 ISO and 30.3% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. In the midst of Boyd’s struggles, he’s still striking out plenty of hitters – 30 Ks over the last 22 innings. Not to mention, the current Rangers’ roster owns a .263 on-base percentage in 78 career plate appearances against Boyd.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has B+ grades for the Rangers and total under tonight, which are some of the highest on the slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Texas Rangers: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 25

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 120-105-4 (53.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-122) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Walker Lockett – R (0-1, 23.14 ERA/2.57 WHIP)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-6, 4.12 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

We saw a slugfest last night, and we’re going to see one again. Vegas already set the tone for this game, raising the total from 10 to 10.5, and the heavy juice (-122) is on the over.

Most of that has to do with Walker Lockett, who has been battered in his brief MLB experience. Dating back to last season, Lockett owns an 0-4 record to go along with an 11.42 ERA/2.19 WHIP over 17 1/3 innings.

The Phils are coming off a season-high 19-hit performance in last night’s game, and I’d look for them to carry over the hot-swinging sticks tonight. As I mentioned in yesterday’s writing, the Phils were swept over the weekend by the lowly Marlins, and this series against the Mets is a true challenge of where this team is at – and where they’ll be going forward.

Jake Arrieta has thrown two consecutive quality starts, but I don’t see that trend continuing. Left-handed batters have been giving him plenty of trouble this season, and now the Mets have guys like Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto back in the lineup.

Just as the case was last night, both teams’ bullpens are an absolute mess. I went over the advanced metrics yesterday, so there’s no need to do it again after a 13-7 game. They suck, take my word for it.

A total of eight homers were hit in last night’s game, adding on to the narrative of slugfests between these two teams at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s do it again!

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 10 – New York Mets: 5

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-104) – Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (8-6, 4.38 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

We’ve got two hot offenses going head-to-head in Milwaukee, so it’s only natural to take the over here. After all, Vegas raised the total from 9.5 to 10.5, with each team getting a nice IRT increase as well – Brewers: +0.6, Mariners: +0.4.

After struggling at the beginning of June, the Brewers have now scored at least six runs in four of the last five games. Looking at their Statcast data over the last 21 days, we’ll see that Milwaukee has been quite unlucky against right-handed pitching over that span. Their .357 xwOBA and .310 wOBA have a huge gap, with the xwOBA telling us their quality of contact is high and the wOBA telling us how painful it’s been to watch those baseballs hit leather.

Marco Gonzales has pitched well in his last three outings, but he’s facing an incredibly tough lineup in their own ballpark tonight. Not to mention, Miller Park tends to favor offenses more often than not.

The Mariners’ bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA (5.24) in all of baseball, and we’ll probably see more of them tonight if Gonzales gets lifted for a pinch hitter in the NL ballpark.

Zach Davies has been knocked around in the month of June, allowing 30 hits and 13 runs over 20 2/3 innings of work. Opposing hitters have a .353 batting average against him over that span.

Seattle’s offense is rocking and rolling with a .360 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, and the top of its’ lineup is mainly to thank for that.

All in all, we’ve got two teams making solid contact with the ball and the Brewers should especially be able to feast late in this game against the Mariners’ bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6