Tag: Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *

NBA Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, April 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Be sure to tune in to the NBAyd Show tonight with Gary Ayd of SB Nation. I’ll be on at around 9:20 p.m. EST on sbnationradio.com!

One night after we crowned a champion in college basketball, it’s now time to finish off the final two days of the NBA season. There’s plenty at stake in the Eastern Conference, as the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are all fighting for that final playoff spot – and the best part is that they’re all in action tonight. Let’s take a look at who could make a move in the right direction, and who could possibly fall out of the picture.

[7:10 p.m. EST] Charlotte Hornets (-8/-340 ML) at Cleveland Cavaliers – Total: 221

There’s no getting around it – the Charlotte Hornets need this game. Tomorrow night, they’ll take on the Orlando Magic, so it’s imperative for them to take care of business on Tuesday. And the Hornets likely will, as they have won seven of the last 10 games, covering the spread in eight of them.

The highest SK Trend Confidence score (25%) lies within the over in this game, as six of the last eight Cleveland Cavaliers’ games have gone in that direction. It makes sense, with the Cavs in full-on tank mode, they have allowed at least (AT LEAST!) 110 points in each of their nine losses.

[7:10 p.m. EST] Memphis Grizzlies (+10.5/+410 ML) at Detroit Pistons – Total: 209.5

If anyone finds the Detroit Pistons, can someone let them the playoffs are about to start soon? Yikes! The Pistons have completely let a golden opportunity slip right through their hands, losing seven of the last nine games, including four straight. On the other side, the Memphis Grizzlies absolutely know that they have a chance to spoil some plans for the home team. After all, the Grizz have had wins against quality teams like the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder in recent memory.

The highest SK Trend Confidence score (30%) sits with the Grizzlies to win outright on the moneyline in this game. If that’s too much risk to handle, Memphis should easily cover that 10.5-point spread.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Houston Rockets (-2/-128 ML) at Oklahoma City Thunder – Total: 230

Believe it or not, but the Houston Rockets have a chance to grab the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Tonight is their final game of the regular season, and the Rockets are rolling heading into the playoffs with a 20-3 record over the last 23 games. Not to mention, James Harden and the boys have covered the spread in each of the last six games. With this being Houston’s last chance to position itself for playoff seeding, look for them to have an inspirational performance against OKC.

The Rockets’ moneyline win has the highest SK Trend Confidence score (37%) of any scenario in this game tonight.

NBA Preview for Monday, March 25th

There are only four games on the NBA docket this evening but plenty of playoff implications on the line. In fact, six of the eight teams on tonight’s schedule have some level of urgency to get a win.

(7:05 p.m. EST) Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5) at Orlando Magic – Total: 219

To start the evening, the Philadelphia 76ers face the Orlando Magic. With the Eastern Conference playoff picture starting to take shape, the Magic are trying to make sure they’re not left out of the race. They currently find themselves one game behind the eighth-place Miami Heat, who will be waiting for Orlando and their monumental showdown tomorrow night. The Magic have gone 4-0 on their current five-game homestand, all against teams with a losing record (Cleveland, Atlanta, New Orleans, Memphis), while the 76ers have a stronghold on the three-seed in the East but did have their six-game winning streak snapped in Atlanta on Saturday night.

It’s interesting to note that the Sixers opened as 4.5-point favorites, but that spread has since plummeted three points down to 1.5 in favor of the visitors. Philly is 2-1 against Orlando this season, with the average margin being five points between the three games. 78 percent of public bets are on the Sixers tonight, perhaps giving some credence to the fact that the Magic have more motivation to win — Our system also thinks so.

(8:05 p.m. EST) Oklahoma City Thunder (-7) at Memphis Grizzlies – Total: 216.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be happy to see the Memphis Grizzlies on their schedule, considering they have been winners in nine of the last 10 meetings between the teams – 6-4 against the spread. However, OKC has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 16 games, while Memphis is 4-1 outright in its last five games, winning against top-flight teams like Portland, Utah, Orlando and Houston. Our system doesn’t have a specific lean for this game, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Memphis get up for a marquee opponent and keep it close.

(9:05 p.m. EST) Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz (-15) – Total: 216

The Utah Jazz aren’t in serious jeopardy of losing of their playoff bid, but it would behoove them to keep on their winning ways against a hapless Phoenix Suns team that has the second-worst record in the NBA. And they should, as the Jazz have already defeated the Suns by 28 and 17 points in each of their first two meetings this season. The totals went under in each of those two games, and it’s worth noting that Jazz games have produced the under on totals in 10 of their last 14. Our system likes more of the same tonight, with Utah proving to be ultra-focused defensively on its home floor.

(10:05 p.m. EST) Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers (-6.5) – Total: 222.5

This game between the Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers could end up being the best one of the night when it’s all said and done. The Trail Blazers could clinch a playoff berth with a win, while the Nets are clinging on to one of the last spots in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Brooklyn has the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA and is currently in the midst of a daunting seven-game road trip that will end on Thursday in Philly. Luckily, the Nets had two full days off prior to tonight’s game.

One thing is for certain – both teams need this game. Sure, Portland will make the playoffs but holding on to home-court advantage for its first-round matchup looms large. Meanwhile, making the playoffs for Brooklyn would mean the world. After three years of losing records and not having control of their own draft pick, the Nets rebuild has certainly been fast-tracked quicker than anyone would have ever imagined. Expect both teams to come out crisp on offense and put up plenty of points.