Tag: Oakland Athletics

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 5: Golden State Warriors (-1, -105/ML: -114) at Toronto Raptors

The city of Toronto is ready to celebrate an NBA championship for the first time in its history, but it’ll have to wait until Thursday or Sunday… or never.

Kevin Durant is back for the Warriors and it’s really anyone’s guess how he’ll perform. Personally, I don’t think he’s going to make a HUGE difference, but his presence could be enough to get Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson a little more wiggle-room to shoot. KD is a body the Raptors certainly have to account for, and you wonder if they’ll end up putting Kawhi Leonard on him instead of Klay or Steph. Ohhhhh, the mind games – I love it!

The Raptors’ length has proven to be detrimental for the Warriors, and adding KD will only space things out a bit more for the Splash Brothers, who both need to be at the top of their games – we’ve seen them do this plenty of times.

I do think it’s a fascinating optic that this Warriors team has been on both sides of the 3-to-1 coin. They know exactly what works to get back from that deficit, and also what allowed the Cavs to come back on them.

Toronto won’t make this easy on Golden State with the rawkus crowd, but if KD gets off to a hot start look for them to be neutralized a bit. I wasn’t going to underestimate the champs without KD, but now that they have him, I’m ready to make the ballsy prediction.

We’re going back to Oakland for Game 6 – and then coming back for Game 7!

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 115 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 99-81-4 (55%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.55 ERA/1.22 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.84 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

Chris Sale shrugged off a horrific start to this season and even threw a complete-game shutout his last time out against the Royals. Tonight, he’ll be taking on a Rangers team that owns the fourth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching. Sale has truly thrived on the home crowd, striking out 48 batters in 28 1/3 innings at Fenway Park this season.

If all of that wasn’t enough, Sale is 3-0 in three starts against Texas since coming to Boston. The electric lefty also has at least 12 strikeouts in four of his last five starts against the Rangers.

While Sale has amazing numbers in this matchup, let’s not count out Mike Minor here. Outside of a rough outing on Opening Day, the veteran lefty has been simply magnificent this season with seven quality starts since the beginning of April.

Minor has been better at home, but this matchup against the Red Sox is one that could even out the splits. They were dazzled by lefty Blake Snell yesterday and now own some less than gaudy numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, including a 25% K-rate over that span.

I’m going with the under of 7.5 runs tonight, considering Vegas dropped the IRT (implied run total) -0.5 runs for both sides. Sale’s K-prop sits at 9.5 (-112 for both over/under) and I don’t mind taking the over on that one either.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -122)
OAK: Tanner Anderson – R (season debut)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (7-0, 2.30 ERA/1.06 WHIP)

There’s plenty of data behind the Rays, including two of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings of the night in our system.

Tanner Anderson is making the first start of his MLB career, and he registered a 6.26 ERA down in Triple-A this season. Tampa’s offense looked outstanding in Boston over the weekend, and now own a zaftig .360 xwOBA (contact metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tampa’s +0.6 IRT increase is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate, and it also helps that Oakland’s bullpen ranks second-worst in xFIP and SIERA over the last 14 days.

It’s truly unbelievable, but Charlie Morton has not registered a loss over his last 20 starts, allowed three runs or fewer in 18 times and two runs or fewer in 15 times. Look for the A’s to struggle with playing catch-up for Anderson’s apparent rough start.

We’re taking the Rays with resounding confidence.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Oakland A’s: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 97-80-4 (55%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-106) – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-5, 3.68 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (6-3, 4.88 ERA/1.37 WHIP)

Blake Snell ran into a hot Tigers’ offense in his last start, allowing seven hits and six runs over 4 1/3 innings. That outing was certainly a misnomer, considering the electric lefty had only allowed six runs in his previous 30 1/3 innings.

Today, Snell will take on a Red Sox team he’s dominated since the start of last season. Snell has collected the win in each of his last three starts against Boston and hasn’t allowed more than two runs against them in each of the last four. The Red Sox offense hasn’t looked good in this series, and it helps Snell’s case that Mookie Betts is only hitting .209 against left-handed pitching. As for the rest of the Red Sox offense against lefties, they’re swinging and missing at a massive 31.8% K-rate and own a putrid .260 xwOBA over the last 14 days.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the benefit of facing a Rays team that has the highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season. While E-Rod’s numbers don’t look great on the surface versus Tampa Bay, it’s worth noting that he’s allowed three runs or fewer in six of seven starts against them.

I fully expect E-Rod to match Snell’s performance today, giving us a nice pitching duel for most of the day. Good news for the under here, as the IRT has dropped -0.3 for both sides.

Fun fact: Dating back to last season, the Red Sox are 29-7 in games that Rodriguez has started.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (8-2, 1.96 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-2, 6.23 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

The Twins are the number one offense in baseball, particularly against left-handed pitching, and their 5.8 IRT ranks third-best on the entire slate. Today, they’ll take on a lefty in Ryan Carpenter who actually has worse numbers at home. Carpenter has gotten lit up at Comerica Park, allowing at least seven hits in all three starts there, which totals out to an 8.44 ERA and .338 opposing batting average.

Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for Minnesota, and he’s been fantastic allowing NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts – I repeat: NO RUNS in six of his last seven starts. Whoa! Not to mention, the Twins have won each of the last nine times Odorizzi was on the bump.

Look for the Twins to roll easily in this one, with Odorizzi getting more than enough run support to make it work.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 0 *

[3:05 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -126) at Texas Rangers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (7-2, 2.83 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (1-4, 7.93 ERA/1.86 WHIP)

It’s a huge mismatch of starting pitchers at Globe Life Park today, so look for the A’s to take this one easily.

Drew Smyly takes the mound for the Rangers, and he’s been beaten up like he’s owed people money of late. Smyly had eerily-similar stat lines in each of his last two starts, allowing eight hits and seven runs against the Mariners and Orioles. That’s a major problem, considering the A’s rank first in ISO (.229) and tied for second in wOBA (.357) against left-handed pitching this season.

Oakland owns a magnificent .420 wOBA against lefties over the last 14 days, hence why they have the highest IRT (6.4) on the entire slate.

Frankie Montas has been simply dominant this season, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven starts. The splits actually work in favor of Montas as well, as he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in seven road starts, while going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three daytime starts too.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 10 – Texas Rangers: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (1.5-run line: -104)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-7, 7.36 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
TEX: Ariel Jurado – R (2-2, 2.43 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

David Hess has been getting ripped with regularity, surrendering at least five runs (four earned) in each of his last four starts. If all of that wasn’t enough, the righty has also allowed a total of nine homers in a span of 20 2/3 innings. Vegas knows this, giving the Rangers a +0.6 IRT increase — the highest on today’s entire schedule.

A humid Texas night certainly won’t help anything, as temperatures are expected to be in the lower-90s with the wind blowing out to center field at 10 mph.

The Rangers have had their fair share of struggles against left-handed pitching, but the righties are another story. Over the course of this season, Texas ranks third in wOBA (weighted on-base average – .344) and fourth in ISO (power metric – .206). If/when the Rangers beat up Hess early, look for them to continue taking advantage of an Orioles’ bullpen which has allowed the most homers (50) and the second-highest ERA (5.86) in all of baseball.

Ariel Jurado takes the mound for the Rangers, and the starter’s role suits him well. After a shaky debut as a starter, he has come back strong in each of the last two games with a quality start in each of those outings, limiting the opposition to two runs in both.

The Orioles have done most of their recent damage against left-handed pitching but it’s the righties that have given them more trouble than anything. In fact, Baltimore has a putrid .245 wOBA, .145 ISO and 27.4% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Look for Jurado to get that third-consecutive quality outing.

I’m going with the Rangers on the 1.5-run line, considering the opposition has put up eight runs or more in seven of the last 10 games that Hess has started.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 * 

[10:07 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-106) – Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels 
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (4-3, 4.78 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-5, 4.80 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

America’s favorite stat, BvP, looms large in the battle of California teams this evening. Both sides have three hitters with a good deal of success against tonight’s starting pitcher and Vegas believes that (or something else) could be a key factor in the total going over 9.5 runs. The IRT increased slightly for each team since the open — Angels: +0.3, Athletics: +0.2.

Since throwing a no-hitter, Mike Fiers has been solid — but not perfect. He has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four starts and issued three walks in three of those four. It’s always a tough matchup against this Angels’ bunch, but even more so tonight as six of their regular starters have a batting average that is above .300 over the last seven days.

Mike Trout absolutely owns Fiers, going 8-for-21 with six extra-base hits, two homers and five walks. Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun both have solid numbers against Fiers as well.

Tyler Skaggs has been absolutely belted of late, allowing at least four runs in four of his last five starts. Three A’s hitters, in particular, have crushed him as well. Khris Davis (7-for-18, 4 HR), Marcus Semien (10-for-21, 6 XBH, 2 HR) and Chad Pinder (4-for-12, 1 XBH) all slept at the ballpark last night because they couldn’t wait to get in the box tonight.

One key factor that could work in the A’s favor tonight is the Angels bullpen, which owns the sixth-worst ERA (6.12) over the last 14 days. That, coupled with the ownage of Skaggs, could ultimately be the difference.

To close, it’s worth noting that four of the last five matchups between the two teams have gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 5 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

—

NBA Playoffs Pick: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -110)

It took the Toronto Raptors three quarters to finally show themselves but did come through for us in relinquishing the game on Wednesday night. Just as we saw, the Milwaukee Bucks are a more well-rounded team from top to bottom and that’ll be more evident tonight.

The Bucks shot 25% from 3-point range, while Kyle Lowry of the Raptors went 7-for-9 from behind the arc — and Milwaukee still won. Believe me, neither of those will happen tonight, and the Bucks will coast to victory.

SK Trend Confidence rating believes the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread is the best value pick of the evening. Basically, you don’t even need to waste all that money ($270 to win $100) betting the Bucks outright when you can just sit back and watch them easily devour the Raptors.

– – –

* 2019 MLB Record: 66-39-4 (62.9%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-116) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (moneyline: -155)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.08 ERA/1.07 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-4, 3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The Nationals got a nice +0.5 boost to their implied run total (IRT) and their moneyline odds increased from -124 to -155, which is third-highest on the slate. Since Gerardo Parra came to DC, the Nats’ offense got a jolt of energy and more help is on the way with Trea Turner returning off the injured list tonight, while Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon have also returned in recent days. Parra won’t be in the starting lineup tonight against the lefty, but he could have an impact pinch hitting later in the game.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve only won two of his nine starts this season. Look for that trend to get bucked as the Cubs’ current roster has a combined 38.6% K-rate in 101 career plate appearances against Scherzer – Javy Baez and Kris Bryant have struck out a combined 14 times in 21 plate appearances – Yikes!

Cole Hamels goes for the Cubbies, and he’s done a fine job of limiting damage from opposing teams. The veteran lefty has been slightly worse away from Wrigley Field, allowing an opposing batting average of 66 points higher on the road than at home. I don’t think Hamels gets absolutely rocked tonight, but we could certainly see a score similar to the one Chicago lost by in Cincinnati last night.

It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer has a K-prop of 9.5 tonight, with +120 juice on the over. I’ve found myself gravitating more to these props lately, so that’s just some side action to throw on top.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -116) at Detroit Tigers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-1, 2.63 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It has certainly been a rough stretch for the Tigers, allowing 8.2 runs per game over their last nine contests. Yesterday’s 17-3 thumping appears like it could happen all over again, as evidenced by the +0.6 IRT and moneyline (-145 to -180) increases for the A’s — both are the highest on tonight’s slate.

Oakland has Top-5 numbers against left-handed pitching this season in nearly every advanced-metric and owns a .365 ISO over the last 14 days — the highest for any split on tonight’s slate. That’s all good news, considering Detroit’s bullpen has pitched a whopping 35 innings over the last seven days – eight more innings than any other team over that span. Look for Daniel Norris to possibly get extended a little more, and rocked in the process.

Although he’s been allowing too many baserunners lately for my liking, Frankie Montas is an absolute stud. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Tigers’ team near or dead-last in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at their numbers over the last 14 days in that split, it doesn’t get much better, as they own a putrid .256 wOBA and 25.4% K-rate.

The Tigers have lost the last four games by a combined deficit of 32 runs, and their last 11 losses have been by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +124)
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-4, 4.47 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-3, 6.69 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It was a good start to the season for Brad Keller, but things have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Keller has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts with the only misnomer coming against the Tigers, who are the worst hitting team in the American League.

The Angels received a +0.5 IRT increase, which is tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate. Makes sense, considering their outstanding .407 wOBA, .238 ISO and 14.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Over the course of the season against righties, the Angels rank first in K-rate (15.7%), second in wRC+ (120) and fourth in wOBA (.346).

Matt Harvey has looked much better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Royals, going seven innings and allowing two hits, three walks and one run while striking out five. KC’s offense has not been at its best of late, scoring one run or fewer four of the last five games and in five of the last seven.

Keller’s last four starts have all been Royals’ defeats by three runs or more, while the team has suffered some convincing losses already this week. Let’s take a chance here and get plus-money on our bet for this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-128) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-158)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (3-1, 2.09 ERA/1.09 WHIP)
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (3-2, 4.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

I almost feel like we can take last night’s game preview, copy/paste and replace the pitcher’s names. Don’t worry, I won’t.

Not much changed with the Pirates and their struggles against left-handed pitching on Thursday, as they posted a total of two runs against Eric Lauer and the Padres’ bullpen. Pittsburgh faces another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, and he comes into tonight’s start in better form than Lauer did. Certain trends have already followed teams from the beginning of this season, and this one is no different for the Pirates – they just simply can’t hit lefties well.

The Padres do have the third-highest IRT (+0.4) and moneyline (-130 to -158) increases on the slate, which is interesting. They have well below-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching and Jordan Lyles has been quite solid this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season.

We can look to the first five innings total of 4.5 when figuring out how this game will play out. There’s a huge -160 amount of juice on the under there, so look for the Padres to capitalize on the Pirates’ bullpen late once again. Not trying to play God here, just looking at the numbers!

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 55-37-4 (60%) *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, +130)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (3-3, 4.70 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (6-1, 2.53 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios at Target Field – the only guarantees in life. The righty is 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in four starts at home this season, pushing his record to 22-5 there since 2017. Overall, he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season, while Angels starter Tyler Skaggs comes in with a 3-3 mark and a 4.70 ERA.

The Twins are 7-1 overall in games that Berrios starts on the mound this season. Five of those wins came by two runs or more, including the last three of his starts by a combined scored of 20-4. Berrios has only produced one non-quality start in eight outings, and the Twins still won that game.

The moneyline has the Minnesota Twins -132. I do think the line here is a bit miscalculated for the Twins with Berrios on the mound, and we should definitely take advantage of that. The Angels have played such an easy schedule of late against teams like the Royals, Blue Jays, Tigers and Orioles. But when they played a competent team like the Astros, the Angels lost by a combined score of 24-6.

Minnesota will be without Nelson Cruz, who injured his wrist on a swing-and-miss in yesterday’s loss to the Tigers – this could be why the line is a bit lower. Nonetheless, the Twins rank in the top three of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching this season.

Jorge Polanco has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, with a .324 batting average, .393 on-base percentage, and 1.000 OPS. His numbers against lefties aren’t too shabby either, most notably his .293 ISO and a microscopic 13.9% K-rate in that split. If the bullpen comes in, not to worry – Polanco’s switch-hitting ability comes in handy.

Tyler Skaggs has been far worse on the road this season than at home. In 18 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 23 hits, 14 runs (13 earned), four homers and a .311 opposing batting average – that’s a 1-3 record and 6.38 ERA. In Anaheim, it has been a much different story for Skaggs, with a 2-0 record and 2.19 ERA over 12 1/3 innings.

The implied run total increased by a half-run, up to nine, in this game. Look for the Twins to still be a viable offense, even without their big bopper Cruz.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 3 * 

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (3-3, 5.48 ERA)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (2-1, 3.54 ERA)

We’re getting quite a steal on this total, even at nine. The initial total was tabbed at eight, and the sharps jumped on the over at that number. Hence, the reason why we’ve seen IRT increases for both teams (A’s: +0.6, Mariners: +0.4).

Most fly-by baseball fans might think Mike Fiers is on a heater after throwing a no-hitter, but you have to be smarter about this. It took Fiers 131 pitches to reach that achievement in his last outings, meaning he certainly won’t be at his best for this one. Fiers has reached 100 pitches twice this season and gotten roughed up in each of those next outings for a combined 14 hits and nine runs over 8 1/3 innings. Not to mention, the Mariners hammered Fiers in his first start of the season for five runs over three innings.

On the flip side, the A’s have been posting top-five numbers in advanced metrics against left-handed pitching this season. It looks like they’ll be able to get to Kikuchi early on tonight, and it helps that Seattle’s bullpen has allowed a 2.43 WHIP over the last seven days — most in MLB.

15 of the last 20 Mariners’ games have gone over the total. In the recent weekend series against the Red Sox, the Mariners allowed a total of 34 runs in the three games.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 6 * 

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 44-32-2 (58%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-1, 2.81 ERA)
BAL: John Means – L (3-3, 2.81 ERA)

Light rain is expected to fall throughout the entire game today, which will likely keep the offenses at bay quite a bit. Vegas already thinks so, as the Rays (-0.6) and Orioles (-0.4) have the largest- and third-largest IRT decreases on the entire slate.

Johns Means is getting a matchup against a normally-stout Rays offense, but they do have the highest K-rate (30.1%) against left-handed pitching this season. Tampa did go without a hit from the second-to-seventh innings in last night’s game and was only blanked on the scoreboard for the second time this season.

I’m usually a big fan of the Rays whenever they get to play the matchups in their patented “bullpen games.” The rain, however, does throw things off a bit, as Tampa hasn’t necessarily detailed its plan to the public just yet. All in all, though, these matchups are typically a good thing. Especially against an Orioles offense that has scored three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games.

Lastly, the weather is our friend here. If the rain does end up becoming problematic, it’s possible that the game gets called earlier than in nine innings. That would be music to our ears, as fewer innings would likely lead to fewer runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Oakland A’s at Pittsburgh Pirates
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.97 ERA)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (2-1, 2.42 ERA)

Vegas has already spoken on this game with IRT decreases (Pirates: -0.6, A’s: -0.4) for both sides. However, what’s great here is that the game-total only dropped a half-run down to 8.0, not 7.5. Thanks, Vegas!

Frankie Montas and Jordan Lyles are two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, so I look forward to these two showcasing their talents. Both teams rank in the bottom-third of wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) and wRC+ (weighted created-runs plus) against right-handed pitching, thus giving further evidence that this should be a low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

[4:00 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -148) at Los Angeles Angels
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-2, 6.54 ERA)

The current Angels’ lineup has a combined .169 batting average, .240 on-base percentage and .542 OPS lifetime against Justin Verlander – yikes! In fact, not one of them has a batting average over .300 in this matchup.

Matt Harvey takes the mound for the Halos, and he’s pitched well in each of his last two starts. However, one of those was against a Yankees team that traveled across the country and a Royals offense that just isn’t all that threatening.

Vegas isn’t buying Harvey’s recent success either, as the 1.5 run-line has favorable -146 juice on it. Not to mention, the Astros moneyline increase from -185 to -235 is BY FAR the largest on the entire slate. And speaking of increases, Houston’s IRT increase of 5.3 to 6.0 is also the largest for any team today.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, April 27 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[2:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -116)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-1, 8.59 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (3-1, 2.97 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios pitching at Target Field. This is a guy who loves sleeping in his own bed and getting that good home cooking. In two home starts this season, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing only six hits, two walks and two runs while striking out 17 over 14 1/3 innings. In fact, he is 20-5 when pitching in Minnesota since 2017.

For the Orioles, it’ll be Dan Straily taking the mound, and he has been nowhere near as efficient as his counterpart this season. Straily, who has surrendered seven homers over 14 2/3 innings this season, will be facing a deadly Twins lineup that is tied for fifth-most in MLB – despite playing the fewest games of any team. Not to mention, Minnesota hit five homers last night against Baltimore pitching.

The scene is set this afternoon for a comfortable Twins victory, so we’ll take them on the 1.5-run line and only lay -116 as opposed to the massive -260 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (0-2, 3.52 ERA)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-1, 5.89 ERA)

The Reds exploded for 12 runs last night and will have a great chance to start another carousel around the basepaths against Dakota Hudson, who has a massive 2.09 WHIP this season. Not to mention, he has allowed eight homers over 18 1/3 innings of work. With the wind blowing out to left field at about 14-16 mph during the game, this could definitely be problematic for Hudson and the Cardinals if he continues those lackluster ways.

Tyler Mahle takes the hill for Cincy, coming off two rough outings out West, where he allowed 18 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. Just like Hudson, if he continues to allow baserunners to get aboard, we could see some big blasts that bring those guys around to home plate.

I do feel like the Reds come back with another victory in this one, but you would have to expect the Cardinals to put up a good fight after getting embarrassed at home last night – that doesn’t happen often.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[3:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (2-1, 2.77 ERA)

The A’s have not been able to figure out Blue Jays’ pitching, only scoring eight runs over the four matchups this season. And it won’t get any easier today as Aaron Sanchez takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA. This will only be the second start at Rogers Centre for Sanchez this season, but we’re looking for him to be quite comfortable in the friendly home confines.

The lefty Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, and he has been able to limit opposing hitters to one home run over 26 2/3 innings this season. Anderson has been able to wiggle his way out of a few jams early on, but it’s a good sign that his control has been intact, allowing two walks or fewer in four of his five starts.

The IRT in this game came down a half-run to nine, so Vegas is thinking both starters should be quite effective in this matchup. I’ll have to agree and put my money on the under this afternoon.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Value Betting Picks for Monday, April 8

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-0, 2.76 ERA)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Runs, runs, everyone loves some fun! If the last series against the Yankees was any indication of how bad Orioles’ pitching has been, fans sitting in the Camden Yards’ outfield tonight better bring their mitts to the stadium.

Both sides have seen their Implied Run Total (IRT) increase greatly since the opening lines came out, and that’s a telling sign when looking for offense on the slate. In fact, Oakland’s IRT jumped 0.6 runs (Baltimore at +0.4) since the open, which is the second-highest increase of any team today. Reason being, the A’s have seen Cashner very well over the course of their careers – specifically, Kendrys Morales (6-for-10, 3 HR, 2 BB, 0 K) and Khris Davis (6-for-17, 1 HR). The current roster actually has a combined .354 batting average and 1.078 OPS against Cashner over his career. Not to mention, the Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most runs (36) in all of MLB this season.

Six of Baltimore’s nine games have gone over the total this season and this is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair. The SK value system has a +36% Trend Confidence in this one going over 12.5 runs, so that should blow right past the current total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 –  Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
SEA: Felix Hernandez – R (1-0, 1.69 ERA)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

Sure, “King” Felix had a solid debut to the 2019 season, but we should remember that he’s typically been a much better pitcher at home over the course of his career. This is a pitcher that is clearly on a downward slope and Vegas has recognized that, giving KC the highest IRT increase (+0.7) on the entire slate.

Seattle has been rocking and rolling on offense, scoring the most runs (85) of any team in MLB, but they have also committed the most errors in the league as well. That, coupled with the fact that Homer Bailey will be on the mound for KC, makes this a great play on the over. Certainly going to have a few cleats touching home plate tonight!

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 9

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
SD: Eric Lauer – L (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (0-2, 1.38 ERA)

We’ve got a fantastic matchup of southpaw dealers at Oracle Park tonight as Bumgarner and Lauer take the hill. It’s interesting to note that MadBum has never started his career 0-3, which looks him squarely in the eye tonight. I’d expect him to know this and take that as a personal challenge, thus leading to an epic performance.

Lauer is a very underrated pitcher that people will learn about sooner than later, but his last start didn’t fare too well against the D-Backs. He did, however, skill the Giants on Opening Day, allowing only four hits and one walk over six innings while striking out three hitters. Lauer’s ability, and the Giants’ lack of offense, set the stage for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in San Francisco.

Bettors on the under would be fascinated to know that each of the first four matchups between these teams have landed on the under.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Betting Preview for Afternoon Games on Thursday, April 4

Welcome to a beautiful Thursday afternoon of MLB action! We’ve got four games on the early slate to break down, so without further ado…

[1:05 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals (-105) at Detroit Tigers – Total: 8
KC: Jakob Junis – R (1-0, 4.76 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 5.40 ERA)

Junis has absolutely owned the Tigers over the course of his career, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) – he went 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts against them last season. That should be enough confidence, but you have to think this Tigers squad is a bit too giddy after taking the last two games of their series with the Yanks in New York.

Turnbull is still looking for the first win of his MLB career and he’ll have a tough time doing it against a speedy KC bunch. Being mostly a sinker-ball pitcher, Turnbull could get chipped away at in the cold Detroit weather by a lineup that can put a lot of pressure on the Tigers’ defense.

KC’s bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA (7.27), but the Tigers’ bats aren’t doing much damage either, with only 12 runs over the first seven games. It’s time for the turnaround!

Also, the wind will be blowing in at 9 mph from left field, so that should keep the ball in the park a bit more.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 3

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-128) – Total: 6.5
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

This is a starting pitcher’s rematch from the second game of this season, as the Mets got the 11-8 victory the first time around. Strasburg (8) and Syndergaard (7) had a combined 15 strikeouts in six innings apiece last Saturday, but they also gave up four earned runs each in the process.

Vegas has certainly left its mark on this game with a 6.5-run total, and you have to think we’re heading for a pitcher’s duel. The Nationals will be without one of the best base-stealers in the game, Trea Turner, and that should alleviate a great deal of stress that Syndergaard might have about keeping runners on base. In fact, April has been one of the better months over his career, allowing only one homer in 82 2/3 innings since 2016.

The Stras hasn’t been quite as good as Thor in the month of April, but it is worth noting that he does have a 24-5 record with a 2.52 ERA in 34 road starts since 2016.

All in all, we should look for both pitchers to rebound and put on quite the performance. But we’re giving the Mets the win, given their recent hot streak to begin the 2019 campaign.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2

[3:05 p.m. EST] New York Yankees (-200) at Baltimore Orioles – Total: 8
NYY: James Paxton – L (0-1, 1.59 ERA)
BAL: Alex Cobb – R (Season Debut)

It seems like the remaining healthy players on the Yankees’ roster should be sporting bubble-wrap because they could be the next ones to land on the Injured List (it’s still the Disabled List, I don’t care what anyone says). Those remaining Yanks will head to Baltimore to face the Orioles, who are playing the home opener. Typically, this is a place that New York has gone in and dominated, especially in the crowd, but the start to this season has been anything but typical for the Evil Empire.

Alex Cobb was supposed to take the mound on Opening Day for the O’s before a minor injury negated that opportunity. After a dreadful start to the season, Cobb had some good performances down the stretch, but I don’t think we should be looking for more of the same today. And perhaps, it’ll do the Yanks some good to get away from their anxious fans in the Bronx.

James Paxton will take the mound to do what the Yanks paid him to do – win ball games. He wasn’t bad at all in his season debut against this same O’s squad, allowing four hits, one walk and two runs (one earned) over 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out five.

Neither team has been crushing the ball to start the season, but I do think it’ll do the Yankees some good to hit the road and get their minds right. Look for them to get to Cobb early en route to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 8 – Baltimore Orioles 3

[3:37 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-114) at Oakland Athletics – Total: 8.5
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (0-1, 10.38 ERA)
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Boston Red Sox capped off a thrilling win on Wednesday night with a three-run ninth inning, and the hope is that they take this momentum into today’s game against Brett Anderson and the A’s bullpen. And Lord knows, the defending champs need to get back on the good foot, with only two wins in their first seven games of the season.

The Red Sox pitching has finally settled down a bit, allowing only four runs in the last two games. This comes after they allowed 41 runs over the first five games of the season — Yikes!!! That trend should continue, as today’s starter Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2-1 record and 2.33 ERA in four career starts against the A’s, including a 1-0 record and 1.69 ERA in two starts at Oakland.

I don’t think the Red Sox pitching woes are fully solved in the bullpen, though. After all, there should be some fatigue after playing all these extra playoff games over the last few years, including the World Series run last season. However, this is a desperate Boston team and they get the bats going today.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Oakland Athletics: 4