Tag: NBA Finals

NBA Finals & MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-85-4 (55%) *

NBA Finals – Game 6:
Under 211.5 (-110) – Toronto Raptors (+2.5, -110/ML: +124) at Golden State Warriors

Game 5 was a cruel twist of everyone’s emotions. The Warriors led nearly the entire game, but that was followed by a Raptors run that gave them a 103-97 advantage with about five minutes to go. Then, just as they’ve done so many times in the past, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson engineered a meticulous 3-point shooting exhibition and took the lead late to come away with the 106-105 victory.

Let’s be honest – Toronto has dominated the majority of the series. Even in the games that Golden State won, they barely hung on for dear life at the end. Sure, the Warriors got a huge jolt of energy from Kevin Durant’s presence in Game 5, but knowing he’s gone has to put them in a different mindset. Unfortunately, that mindset could be detrimental as the Splash Brothers know they need to do literally everything on offense.

Expect Nick Nurse to formulate a gameplan that makes life difficult on Curry and Thompson all night. In my opinion, you HAVE TO make anyone but these two guys beat you.

We know this will be the final game at Oracle Arena and the crowd will be the loudest it has ever been. However, I don’t think that’ll be enough to help the worn-down and beat-up Warriors tonight. Kawhi Leonard has the perfect mentality, in that a riled-up crowd isn’t something that will get to him. Expect the rest of his teammates to follow suit and hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Lastly, the SK Trend Confidence rating likes the total to go under in this game, as three of the last four games in this series have suffered the same fate.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 103 – Golden State Warriors: 99 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (5-3, 3.72 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
BOS: David Price – L (4-2, 2.70 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

Vegas has already declared this as a low-scoring game, dropping the IRTs for both teams – Rangers: -0.6, Red Sox: -0.3. The Rangers’ IRT actually comes in as the largest drop for any team on today’s entire schedule.

David Price has been simply magnificent, and you know this because he actually pitched well at Yankee Stadium two starts ago, a place that’s been an absolute nightmare for him. Not including the one start where Price came out in the first inning at Houston (due to sickness), the veteran lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. In addition, Price has a microscopic 1.08 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this season.

The Rangers’ offense has not been great against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .302 xwOBA and .127 ISO.

After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Adrian Sampson has allowed exactly one run in four of his last five starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. Not to mention, Sampson has struck out 18 batters in his last 16 innings of work. It also helps matters for the under that Boston’s offense has only produced an average of three runs per game over the last seven contests.

All in all, both starting pitchers are at the top of their respective games and Vegas has made the proper adjustments on the run total. 10 of the Rangers’ last 14 games have gone under the total, while Red Sox games have suffered the same fate in four of the last five.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-6, 4.97 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
TB: Ryan Yarbrough – L (5-2, 5.31 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

Both of these teams have been doing a great job against left-handed pitching and also have a great history against each of these pitchers.

Let’s start with the Angels, who smashed Ryan Yarbrough for six runs (two homers) in 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field last season. Los Angeles has been great against lefties all season, but even more recently owns a robust .400 wOBA and .269 ISO over the last 21 days.

Yarbrough is scheduled to come in after the “opener” that Tampa Bay occasionally rolls out for an inning or two. Good news for the total going over tonight, as Yarbrough owns a 7.25 ERA at Tropicana Field – 3.15 ERA on the road.

The Rays don’t necessarily have the power numbers against lefties, but they are getting on base a great deal, registering a .347 wOBA over the last 21 days. In that same start where Yarbrough got ripped last season, Tyler Skaggs did even worse, allowing 10 runs over 3 1/3 innings. Much like Yarbrough’s splits working in our favor, Skaggs has a much worse 6.23 ERA on the road, compared to his 3.58 ERA at home.

Vegas adjusted the run total from 8.5 to 9.0, with each team getting a slight increase on the IRT, so that is good news that things are trending in that direction. Look for history to repeat itself and plenty of cleats to touch home plate tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Tampa Bay Rays: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers (ML: -126) at Kansas City Royals
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-4, 3.08 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-6, 5.90 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Matthew Boyd had a few tough matchups of late but still managed to hold his own against some of the league’s best. In fact, he’s notched at least seven strikeouts in each of five outings, and that includes going against teams like the Twins, Braves and A’s. That’s bad news for a Royals team that is striking out 27.8% of the time against lefties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, their offense against lefties has sucked all year, owning the third-worst wOBA (.281) in baseball this season.

Boyd did skill this KC team a month ago, striking out nine Royals over seven innings en route to a win.

On the other side, Homer Bailey gets ripped with great regularity. Bailey has some of the worst advanced metrics of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, setting up a huge night for the Tigers’ offense. While they haven’t scored a ton of runs lately, the heart of the order has been making solid contact against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days and that bad luck is bound to turn around, especially against a pitcher like Bailey.

Look for Detroit to get back on the good foot and Boyd to lead the way with a dominant performance tonight. The Tigers are 6-2 against the Royals this season and Bailey’s teams are a dreadful 6-27 in games that he’s started over the last two seasons.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 5: Golden State Warriors (-1, -105/ML: -114) at Toronto Raptors

The city of Toronto is ready to celebrate an NBA championship for the first time in its history, but it’ll have to wait until Thursday or Sunday… or never.

Kevin Durant is back for the Warriors and it’s really anyone’s guess how he’ll perform. Personally, I don’t think he’s going to make a HUGE difference, but his presence could be enough to get Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson a little more wiggle-room to shoot. KD is a body the Raptors certainly have to account for, and you wonder if they’ll end up putting Kawhi Leonard on him instead of Klay or Steph. Ohhhhh, the mind games – I love it!

The Raptors’ length has proven to be detrimental for the Warriors, and adding KD will only space things out a bit more for the Splash Brothers, who both need to be at the top of their games – we’ve seen them do this plenty of times.

I do think it’s a fascinating optic that this Warriors team has been on both sides of the 3-to-1 coin. They know exactly what works to get back from that deficit, and also what allowed the Cavs to come back on them.

Toronto won’t make this easy on Golden State with the rawkus crowd, but if KD gets off to a hot start look for them to be neutralized a bit. I wasn’t going to underestimate the champs without KD, but now that they have him, I’m ready to make the ballsy prediction.

We’re going back to Oakland for Game 6 – and then coming back for Game 7!

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 115 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 99-81-4 (55%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.55 ERA/1.22 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.84 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

Chris Sale shrugged off a horrific start to this season and even threw a complete-game shutout his last time out against the Royals. Tonight, he’ll be taking on a Rangers team that owns the fourth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching. Sale has truly thrived on the home crowd, striking out 48 batters in 28 1/3 innings at Fenway Park this season.

If all of that wasn’t enough, Sale is 3-0 in three starts against Texas since coming to Boston. The electric lefty also has at least 12 strikeouts in four of his last five starts against the Rangers.

While Sale has amazing numbers in this matchup, let’s not count out Mike Minor here. Outside of a rough outing on Opening Day, the veteran lefty has been simply magnificent this season with seven quality starts since the beginning of April.

Minor has been better at home, but this matchup against the Red Sox is one that could even out the splits. They were dazzled by lefty Blake Snell yesterday and now own some less than gaudy numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, including a 25% K-rate over that span.

I’m going with the under of 7.5 runs tonight, considering Vegas dropped the IRT (implied run total) -0.5 runs for both sides. Sale’s K-prop sits at 9.5 (-112 for both over/under) and I don’t mind taking the over on that one either.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -122)
OAK: Tanner Anderson – R (season debut)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (7-0, 2.30 ERA/1.06 WHIP)

There’s plenty of data behind the Rays, including two of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings of the night in our system.

Tanner Anderson is making the first start of his MLB career, and he registered a 6.26 ERA down in Triple-A this season. Tampa’s offense looked outstanding in Boston over the weekend, and now own a zaftig .360 xwOBA (contact metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tampa’s +0.6 IRT increase is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate, and it also helps that Oakland’s bullpen ranks second-worst in xFIP and SIERA over the last 14 days.

It’s truly unbelievable, but Charlie Morton has not registered a loss over his last 20 starts, allowed three runs or fewer in 18 times and two runs or fewer in 15 times. Look for the A’s to struggle with playing catch-up for Anderson’s apparent rough start.

We’re taking the Rays with resounding confidence.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Oakland A’s: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, -110/ML: -196)

Here we go! The Golden State Warriors find themselves in a familiar 1-2 hole, a place they have climbed out of before three times en route to a title in previous years. I do think the safer route to go is with the Warriors on the moneyline, but it also means we’re going to have to put up a lot in order to do so.

Golden State will have Klay Thompson back in the lineup, albeit not at 100 percent. We can even make the argument that Steve Kerr knew exactly what he was doing, resting Klay in Game 3 and sacrificing the battle for the war. Regardless, his presence will force Toronto to focus on him, and give the Warriors’ role players more room to operate on the offensive end. Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be more focused and take a vengeful approach to this contest after Marc Gasol thoroughly outplayed him in Game 3.

The Raptors have plenty of firepower that has shown up as the playoffs have gone along, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. Danny Green had an outstanding Game 3, and you have to think the Warriors get all up in his grill. Kawhi Leonard will always be the focal point of the Raptors’ offense but look for Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala to turn up the defensive intensity a bit.

Speaking of Dray, we know he always turns it up a bit when the Warriors’ backs are against the wall. FanDuel Sportsbook has his odds to get a triple-double at +220 tonight. Essentially, they’re saying it’s going to happen – the next closest player is Stephen Curry at +2600. If that’s the case, and Dray gets the trip-dub, the Warriors are probably going to win this game.

How many times have we seen the Warriors look like they were dead in the water, and then pop up right back up with the good stuff? I’d love to take the Warriors at -4.5, but Klay’s status is one that could ultimately determine how close the game is. Let’s play it safe…

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 110 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *


* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (1.5-run line: +116)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (4-4, 5.33 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.49 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

Jacob deGrom certainly hasn’t been at his best this season, but tonight’s opponent will certainly be a welcome sight. The right-handed ace has absolutely dominated the Rockies over the course of his career, as the current roster owns a putrid .167 batting average and .189 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances. I think the most amazing takeaway from this is that deGrom has allowed only one earned run in 30 innings when pitching against the Rockies at Citi Field.

Antonio Senzatela got away with facing a downtrodden Blue Jays offense in his last start, but he did allow nine hits in each of the two outings before that. Not to mention, this guy can’t stop walking people – in the month of May, Senzatela issued 15 free passes over 29 2/3 innings.

deGrom is going to dominate the Rockies once again, as evidenced by the zaftig moneyline given by Vegas. I do think we can steal some money here, going with the 1.5-run line (at +114) as opposed to the massive moneyline which is at -210.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 (-106) – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (6-1, 1.41 ERA/0.91 WHIP)
MIA: Jose Urena – R (4-6, 4.14 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

Jose Urena has actually pitched very well of late, with a quality start in each of his last five outings. However, the last time he failed to do so came against the same Braves’ team he’ll see tonight – Urena allowed five runs over six innings in that game. In fact, Atlanta has performed quite well against the righty in recent history, with at least four runs against him in each of the last three meetings — five runs against him in each of the last two meetings.

Before scoring one run in Pittsburgh on get-away day yesterday, Atlanta scored 33 runs in the previous four games.

Mike Soroka finally showed signs that he’s human in that last start against the Tigers, allowing four runs (three earned) over 6 2/3 innings. The Marlins also had a one-run get-away day yesterday, but they too went bananas in the previous four games, scoring 42 runs over that span. I’m not saying Soroka is going to get beat over the head, but I do think Miami can put up at least three runs here and add to the total.

All in all, I feel like the 7.5 total is certainly a level that could be reached tonight. Both of these teams have been hot offensively, and Atlanta’s history of success against Urena is well-documented.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[10:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -144) at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (5-0, 3.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-6, 8.08 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

Clayton Kershaw takes his unbeaten record into Oracle Park tonight against a Giants team that ranks dead-last in wOBA (.268) against left-handed pitching. Yes, this is the same Giants team that allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete-game shutout against them earlier this week. That, right there, is really all the evidence I need, and I reeeeeally should just end it there.

But I won’t. I’m an elite-level sports betting journalist… or so it says on my Hinge profile.

Kershaw has owned San Francisco over the course of his career, going 22-10 with a 1.70 ERA, six complete games and five shutouts in 44 starts. Not to mention, the current Giants’ lineup has a putrid .198 batting average and .231 on-base percentage against Kershaw in 360 plate appearances. It’s no surprise that the Giants’ 3.0 IRT is the lowest on tonight’s slate.

Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for the Giants and he’s glad the calendar has flipped to June – not that it’ll do him any good. The month of May was an absolute disaster as he wound up with a 19.16 ERA (yes, that is correct), 22 runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers haven’t been outstanding against left-handed pitching of late, but seeing Pomeranz should increase their metrics quite a bit. After all, the Dodgers are ninth in wOBA (.332) against lefties this season, but their .307 mark over the last 14 days in that split is just more of a testament to the pitchers they’ve faced.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *