Tag: MLB

MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* MLB Picks have been running hot this season, going 22-11-2 in the Value Bets article! *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (1-1, 7.47 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (2-1, 2.25 ERA)

Zack Wheeler had his best outing of the season last time out, so I guess his key to success is just not facing the Nationals? Maybe not, but Wheeler does have solid have numbers against most of the Phils’ lineup and should be able to build off that last performance.

Jake Arrieta has only allowed five runs over his first 20 innings of the season and finally kept the walks to a minimum after allowing six of them on a chilly Sunday night game against the Braves.

The Mets will be without leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo and that could be an issue for a team that relies on his hustle, with not much of that coming from anywhere else in the lineup. Also, the Phils will be without one of their best hitters, Jean Segura.

The bullpens have been used quite a bit over the last few days, so I’d expect both starters to go six (maybe even seven) innings today and be masterful in the process. Not to mention, we have already seen a total of 30 runs in the first two games of this series – we’re due for an under.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3 *

[1:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
STL: Michael Wacha – R (0-0, 5.28 ERA)
MIL: Corbin Burnes – R (0-1, 10.05 ERA)

The Brewers and Cardinals have faced each other six times already this season, all at Miller Park, and combined to score at least nine runs in five of those games. Well, be prepared to see it happen for the sixth time in seven games.

Michael Wacha is putting a ton of runners on base (1.83 WHIP) and that’s just not a good recipe for success against the Brewers, who rank fifth in RBI (96) and seventh in on-base percentage (.347) in MLB. To make the over even more glamorous, Corbin Burnes is also putting guys on base (1.88 WHIP) and he’s allowed three homers in each of his three starts this season. There will be plenty of baserunners, with great offenses to knock them in.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 8 – Milwaukee Brewers: 7 *

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:40 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 –  St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (0-1, 2.79 ERA)
MIL: Freddy Peralta – R (1-0, 6.91 ERA)

This will be the Redbirds’ second trip to Milwaukee already this season, and it didn’t go too well for them the first time around. The Brewers ended up winning three of the four games in that series and our Trend Confidence rating has them as the most likely team to win on the MLB slate tonight. Not to mention, the over in this game is the strongest overall play that we have on the board.

Dakota Hudson takes the hill for St. Louis, and he has put a ton of guys on base in each of his two starts this season. That’s just not a recipe for success against a Milwaukee lineup that has talent up and down the order. The Brewers are finally back home (where they are 5-2) after a tough, but short, West coast trip against the Angels and Dodgers. Look for the Brew Crew to take advantage of those extra baserunners and give Hudson more headaches.

Freddy Peralta will be starting for Milwaukee, and he has been equally as bad as Hudson. In fact, Peralta only lasted three innings in his season debut against these same Cardinals, allowing six hits, three walks and four runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
KC: Heath Fillmyer – R (0-0, 15.00 ERA)
CHW: Ervin Santana – R (0-1, 17.18 ERA)

Yes, those ERAs you see above are correct — that’s a combined 32.18 between the two of them. Yikes!

I’m going with the over in this game, considering the White Sox have hit that mark in 10 of their 14 games this season, while the Royals have done the same in 11 of their 15 games. That, coupled with the fact that both pitchers are struggling out of the gate, makes this a good night to see plenty of runs crossing the plate.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 9 – Kansas City Royals: 8 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds (+146) at Los Angeles Dodgers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (1-1, 0.92 ERA)
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (season debut)

Very, very interesting matchup at Chavez Ravine as Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut against a very talented pitcher in Luis Castillo. I’m taking the upset here and rolling with the Reds, who have a few guys making a homecoming of sorts. Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig should be ultra-motivated after getting shipped from beautiful Los Angeles to… well, Cincinnati. Be honest, you’d be upset too.

It’s quite interesting that the Dodgers don’t have a higher moneyline number, especially with Kershaw toeing the rubber. Granted, it’ll be his first start of the season, but this is just too noticeable of a number for me not to land on. Castillo has been fantastic early on with 25 strikeouts and only two runs allowed over 19 2/3 innings. A lot of people around baseball might not be too familiar with Castillo, but they certainly will be when the night is over.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 –  Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-252)
BAL: John Means (1-1, 2.08 ERA)
BOS: David Price – L (0-1, 6.00 ERA)

The weather in Boston is not looking great over the next few days and that might be why we’re seeing a big decrease in the total for this game. Baltimore has a -0.4 IRT decrease while Boston dipped even further at -0.6.

While it is super early in the season, the Red Sox need to get their act together. A 5-10 record certainly isn’t what they had in mind and this is a golden opportunity to capitalize on a team that doesn’t match up talent-wise. Not only does the current Orioles’ roster has a combined .236 batting average against Price, but they have an even more anemic .269 on-base percentage. Look for Price to have a solid start and the Red Sox back on track.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 –  Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-1, 2.50 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (1-1, 2.18 ERA)

When Berrios is at home, you just simply roll with the goodness. He skilled a gem in his season debut at Target Field, but the 18-5 mark Berrios has posted there over the last two seasons should give bettors even more confidence that he’ll get the job done today.

I’d love to just take the Twins outright, but that is a ton of money to be laying. Let’s roll with the under in this one, considering Zimmermann has been surprisingly good to start the season. That last start didn’t go too well against Cleveland, but I feel like this is a guy who has found something in his old age — at least enough to keep the total to a minimum.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 0 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-180) at Seattle Mariners – Total: 8
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (0-2, 3.32 ERA)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (4-0, 3.16 ERA)

The Mariners probably felt all giddy with themselves heading into this mega-matchup with the Astros, but my, oh my, how the tide has turned. I’m looking at another Houston win in this game, considering they have a ton of righty bats that can do damage against Gonzalez, who has allowed at least eight baserunners in three of his four starts this season.

Not to mention, Cole is a damn good pitcher and someone that can’t go too long without having a win under his belt this far into the season.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, April 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (1-1, 2.77 ERA)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

Both sides have seen their Implied Run Total (IRT) increase by +0.5 in this game, which is tied for the second-highest of any team on this slate. Obviously, we should have more faith in the Phillies to get us closer to the total, but their starter for tonight, Arrieta, has been prone to have control issues and give free passes. The Marlins really struggled offensively on their six-game road trip recently, specifically in Cincinnati over the last three days, but they did hit somewhat well at home prior to that.

All in all, Vegas has spoken with the IRT increase from both sides and that’s a great indicator of offensive success.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-113) – Total: 9
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (0-1, 10.24 ERA)
ATL: Sean Newcomb – L (0-0, 1.64 ERA)

Wheeler was supposed to take the next step in his career, but the Nationals didn’t get that memo. They are the only team to face the righty this season, knocking him around for 11 runs in those first two starts. He’ll have a tough time facing the Braves too, especially Freddie Freeman, who is 10-for-19 with three doubles, two homers and 10 walks against Wheeler.

Newcomb has looked so-so this season in two starts against the Cubs and Marlins. However, the Mets 27.5% K-rate against left-handed pitching this season ranks fifth-worst in all of MLB. I look for him to have a big start and get this Braves squad back on the good foot.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – New York Mets: 3 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 – Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (2-1, 5.94 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.11 ERA)

Whenever these two match up in Texas, one of them always seems to have a big night with the sticks. Since both pitchers are off to extremely slow starts, the A’s and Rangers should both have themselves a marathon on the basepaths. Not to mention, we should have cooperating weather as it’ll be in the mid-70s, which is more than we can ask for during the month of April.

After two solid outings to open the season (both in Oakland), Fiers has put up back-to-back duds – more directly, 11 runs over the last 4 2/3 innings… ouuuch!!! It doesn’t help his case tonight that three different Rangers’ players have homered off him multiple times.

On the other side, you just simply have to feel bad for Smyly. Getting out of Oakland has done the A’s some good, as they have scored at least eight runs in four of the last five games.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 8 – Texas Rangers: 6 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
HOU: Wade Miley – L (1-1, 2.31 ERA)
SEA: Wade LeBlanc – L (2-0, 4.76 ERA)

A pair of Wades take the hill on Friday night in Seattle, and each one of them will need to be on top of their games against prolific offenses. The Mariners are off to a 13-2 start, which is best in the majors, but the Astros will certainly try and remind them who has ran this division for a while.

Miley has surprisingly gotten off to a decent start, but he’ll have his hands full against a Mariners team that leads the league in home runs (34) runs scored (110).

In all actuality, there may be more favorable trends with the Astros in this matchup. LeBlanc’s 2-0 record has been the beneficiary of at least 10 runs of support in each of his first two starts.

I think this is a night where the Astros come in and take care of business, but I have a lot more confidence in there being plenty of runs scored.

* Final Score Prediction – Houston Astros: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Night Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:20 p.m. EST] Over 9 –  New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 0.87 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Nine of the 11 Mets’ games have reached the over this season, and a big part of that is the ineffectiveness of their bullpen, which ranks fifth-worst in MLB with a 6.51 ERA. That’s not a great sign for a team heading into one of the best hitting parks in the Majors and the wind is blowing out to left field at 12 mph. Both teams have seen its IRT rise (Mets: +0.3, Braves: +0.2) and have the second- and third-highest increase on the night slate.

Although Matz has gotten off to a great start this season and owns a great history against the Braves (4-0, 2.75 in seven career starts), most of that success wasn’t against this current group of guys. These ATL bats are in a great position, with Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson have been red-hot while Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. are also producing nicely.

Gausman had a nice outing to start the season, but we should remember that it came against a very weak Marlins team. The Mets have been swinging it well, specifically Michael Conforto and Peter Alonso – we can even throw in J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil if we wanted to. Robbie Cano also has a .400 lifetime average against Gausman. Not to mention, the Braves’ bullpen ranks ninth-worst in MLB with a 5.54 ERA.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – New York Mets: 6 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
PIT: Joe Musgrove – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (0-1, 10.29 ERA)

The initial 10.5 total on this game has dropped down to nine, which is quite significant. So, it’s no surprise that both teams (Cubs: -0.9, Pirates: -0.7) have the largest Implied Run Total (IRT) decreases on the entire slate.

Musgrove has yet to allow a run in two appearances (one start, one relief), allowing only three hits and one walk over nine innings while striking out nine batters. Plus, the current Cubs roster only has a career .183 batting average against Musgrove. Given his current string on success in the present day, the Cubs will likely struggle a great deal on offense. Not to mention, Musgrove is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts against the Cubs.

On the other side, Quintana will be looking to rebound from a horrific start against the Brewers. It helps today’s under on the total that he is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts against the Pirates. Ultimately, though, the Cubs’ bullpen has struggled plenty, owning MLB’s sixth-worst ERA (6.34) this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

 [9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
COL: Jon Gray – R (0-2, 5.68 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (0-0, 2.79 ERA)

I might be one of the few people out there that thinks Samardzija is a decent pitcher, but I will only take the chance of using him for money (betting or DFS) when pitching at Oracle Park, one of the league’s worst parks for hitting. Samardzija doesn’t have great overall numbers against the Rockies, but when the games haven’t been at Coors Field, he has a 3.02 ERA in those matchups. While he does have decent numbers this season, the former Notre Dame wideout hasn’t been going too deep into games. But that’s ok, considering the Giants’ bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 2.63 ERA.

Gray goes for the Rockies, and he’ll be salivating over this matchup against a Giants team that has a collective batting average of .206 and the league’s fourth-fewest amount of runs scored. In his last start, Gray ran into the scorching-hot Dodgers’ offense at Coors Field, so I won’t take that outing too deeply into thought. Look for him to rebound with a nice outing tonight against a bad San Fran offense.

All in all, I just don’t like the way either team is playing right now. I’ll give the edge to the Giants being at home and having the better bullpen, but I don’t think we’ll see a ton of runs in any event.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[12:35 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds (-165) – Total: 8.5
MIA: Pablo Lopez – R (1-1, 6.10 ERA)
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-2, 2.89 ERA)

The Marlins’ bats are struggling mightily on this current road trip, with only eight runs over the last five games. And it’s even more disheartening that they have only posted one run at The Great American Ballpark, which is an absolute launching pad most of the time.

Gray hasn’t gotten one run of support from Reds’ bats yet this season but today could be the day against Lopez, who has shown signs of vulnerability at times this season. Being in the offensive haven that is The Great American Ballpark, that probably won’t play well for him and the rest of the Marlins on getaway day.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 6 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (+132) – Total: 9.5
OAK: Aaron Brooks – R (1-1, 4.09 ERA)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-0, 7.36 ERA)

Last season, Bundy had a 6-1 record and 2.28 ERA in day games, compared to the 2-15 mark and 7.48 ERA he posted in night games. Well, his first start during the afternoon this season didn’t go as planned, but I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on him against an A’s team that will essentially be playing this game at 9:35 a.m. on their biological clock. Granted, Oakland has had three games already here in Baltimore but playing one in the early afternoon is a much tougher task.

The Orioles’ +132 moneyline number in this game really isn’t too bad of a spot, considering the general public doesn’t really think much of them. It’s always a risk taking Baltimore, but they might catch Oakland literally sleeping in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 6 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (0-0, 3.38 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 4.08 ERA)

Bieber Fever finally got his first start of the season on Friday and looked sharp, allowing only two hits, two walks and two runs over six innings while striking out nine against the Blue Jays. Detroit is still one of the worst offensive teams to start the 2019 campaign with 37 runs in 13 games and will likely have a hard time improving today.

On the other side, it’s not like Cleveland’s bats have been much better, with only 40 runs over 12 games. Turnbull goes for the Tigers, and while he’s been average, it’s not like the Tribe’s offense should be scaring anyone at the moment.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, April 10 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (1-0, 0.64 ERA)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (0-1, 3.18 ERA)

Trevor Bauer has been absolutely dominant to open the season, allowing only one hit over 14 innings while striking out 17 batters. The outspoken righty did allow six walks in his last start, but this is a guy that has proven to be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last couple of seasons – he’ll get those mishaps under control. Bauer went 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA against the Tigers last season, striking out 40 batters over the course of 29 1/3 innings.

Matthew Boyd has looked fantastic as well, notching double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two starts. The southpaw has yet to get a win, and it’ll certainly be difficult to do so against Bauer. However, only one Indians’ player, Francisco Lindor, has crushed Boyd much… and he’s on the Injured List.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s today at Comerica Park, so I wouldn’t expect the ball to be flying out of the yard. The Tigers rank dead-last in all of MLB with 29 runs, while the Indians aren’t too far behind with 38. Not to mention, both team’s bullpen rank in the Top-10 of ERA – Indians: 5th (2.63), Tigers: 7th (2.81). More than enough trends are lining up to take the under in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-150) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (2-0, 0.82 ERA)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 10.00 ERA)

Tyler Glasnow has been an absolute stud for Tampa Bay early on, allowing one run over his first two starts. One thing I’ll always mention about the Rays is their bullpen, which ranks second in all of MLB with a 2.05 ERA. And that’s important, considering Glasnow will probably max out at six innings this early in the season.

On the flip side, the White Sox bullpen ranks 25th with a 6.61 ERA, and that’s important because we’ll probably see a lot of them today. Reynaldo Lopez has gotten ripped in each of his last two starts, and the Rays can make life difficult for him by piecing together their patented small-ball way of life.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Value Betting Picks for Monday, April 8

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-0, 2.76 ERA)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Runs, runs, everyone loves some fun! If the last series against the Yankees was any indication of how bad Orioles’ pitching has been, fans sitting in the Camden Yards’ outfield tonight better bring their mitts to the stadium.

Both sides have seen their Implied Run Total (IRT) increase greatly since the opening lines came out, and that’s a telling sign when looking for offense on the slate. In fact, Oakland’s IRT jumped 0.6 runs (Baltimore at +0.4) since the open, which is the second-highest increase of any team today. Reason being, the A’s have seen Cashner very well over the course of their careers – specifically, Kendrys Morales (6-for-10, 3 HR, 2 BB, 0 K) and Khris Davis (6-for-17, 1 HR). The current roster actually has a combined .354 batting average and 1.078 OPS against Cashner over his career. Not to mention, the Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most runs (36) in all of MLB this season.

Six of Baltimore’s nine games have gone over the total this season and this is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair. The SK value system has a +36% Trend Confidence in this one going over 12.5 runs, so that should blow right past the current total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 –  Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
SEA: Felix Hernandez – R (1-0, 1.69 ERA)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

Sure, “King” Felix had a solid debut to the 2019 season, but we should remember that he’s typically been a much better pitcher at home over the course of his career. This is a pitcher that is clearly on a downward slope and Vegas has recognized that, giving KC the highest IRT increase (+0.7) on the entire slate.

Seattle has been rocking and rolling on offense, scoring the most runs (85) of any team in MLB, but they have also committed the most errors in the league as well. That, coupled with the fact that Homer Bailey will be on the mound for KC, makes this a great play on the over. Certainly going to have a few cleats touching home plate tonight!

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 9

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
SD: Eric Lauer – L (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (0-2, 1.38 ERA)

We’ve got a fantastic matchup of southpaw dealers at Oracle Park tonight as Bumgarner and Lauer take the hill. It’s interesting to note that MadBum has never started his career 0-3, which looks him squarely in the eye tonight. I’d expect him to know this and take that as a personal challenge, thus leading to an epic performance.

Lauer is a very underrated pitcher that people will learn about sooner than later, but his last start didn’t fare too well against the D-Backs. He did, however, skill the Giants on Opening Day, allowing only four hits and one walk over six innings while striking out three hitters. Lauer’s ability, and the Giants’ lack of offense, set the stage for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in San Francisco.

Bettors on the under would be fascinated to know that each of the first four matchups between these teams have landed on the under.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Betting Preview for Saturday, April 6 (Afternoon Games)

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets  – Total: 7
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 1.69 ERA)

The total of seven is quite interesting in this game, as both pitchers haven’t had too much success against each of these teams. Matz is 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Nationals, while Corbin is 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA in nine starts (10 appearances) against the Mets. Not to mention, both teams had a day of rest yesterday, while the Mets’ bullpen has a 5.21 ERA this season and the Nats’ bullpen has an MLB-worst 10.38 ERA.

It should be no surprise that I’m rolling with the over in this game…

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 4

[2:05 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (-150) – Total: 8
MIN: Michael Pineda – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

Arrieta struggled with some control issues in his season debut but still managed to wiggle out by giving up only one run. It’s the offense behind him, though, that makes the Phillies such an appealing bet. After all, they have scored at least eight runs in all but one of their six games this season.

Those bats will need to be sharp today against Pineda, who is a very talented pitcher but also has a tight leash as he eases his way back to a normal workload after missing nearly a year and a half.

All in all, the Phils are a more talented team and should take over late when these teams end up going to their respective bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-110) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8.5
SEA: Mike Leake – R (1-0, 3.00 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (1-0, 2.70 ERA)

In yesterday’s preview for this matchup, I mentioned the White Sox defense could be in serious trouble with eight errors (fourth-worst in MLB) over five games. Well, it ended up being the Mariners’ defense that cost their team the loss, with three errors, now totaling an MLB-worst 16 of them in nine games.

So, two teams that have been terrible on defense… what could go wrong? Everything, and that’s why I’m going with the over once again in this matchup. Six of Seattle’s nine games have gone over the total, while five of Chicago’s six games have done the same. Not to mention, a few of these White Sox hitters have hit Leake well when they’ve seen him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5