Tag: MLB

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 23 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-54-4 *

[12:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (moneyline: -153) at New York Mets
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.32 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (3-3, 3.96 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

The Nationals have the largest moneyline increase of the day, going from -121 to -153. Stephen Strasburg will be tasked with helping Washington avoid the four-game sweep, and there are more than a few things working in his favor.

For one, Strasburg has thrown five quality starts in his last six outings. His 2.01 ERA in six daytime games and 17 strikeouts against the Mets in 12 2/3 innings have already played out well this season. Strasburg will also benefit from an all right-handed Mets’ lineup today – righties have a dismal .257 on-base percentage against him while striking out 31.4% of the time this season.

Stephen Matz has some rough outings under his belt of late. Not to mention, the Nationals have a solid .343 wOBA and very-low 14.1% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, batting No. 1 and No. 3 in the lineup, have put plenty of hurt on Matz in the past.

Looking at the implied run totals (IRT), the Nationals increased +0.2 while the Mets decreased -0.2. That, along with the moneyline increase for Washington, makes it a likely scenario that the four-game sweep will be avoided.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (3-3, 3.09 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (2-5, 4.66 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

We might actually have an under in this series for once. After seeing a total of double-digits in three straight games, it’s time for a good pitching performance in the daytime.

Masahiro Tanaka has been outstanding in his last three starts, allowing a 0.78 WHIP and only three runs over 19 1/3 innings of work. The Orioles did plenty of work on the lefty CC Sabathia last night, but they still have a .270 wOBA and 27.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tanaka will also benefit from having Austin Romine, a much better defensive-minded catcher, behind the plate today.

It’s always a scary proposition taking the under in a game where Dylan Bundy is pitching, but the Yanks are giving Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres the day off today. These two guys have combined to hit 20 homers against the Orioles this season, so luckily, we’ve got that out of the equation. Bundy has actually allowed no earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Since it’s a day game, most people probably won’t even realize that Sanchez and Torres are out of the lineup. Don’t be one of those people and catch some value on the under in this game!

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 5 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers (1.5-run line: +132)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.44 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (4-4, 3.41 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

This is the Tigers’ highest moneyline odds (-160) of the season – their previous high of -145 was a game they won as well. It makes plenty of sense, though, with Matthew Boyd on the mound. The lefty ran into two tough opponents (vs. HOU, vs. OAK) in his last two starts but that certainly won’t be the case today against the Marlins, who owns league-worst advanced metrics against lefties. Not to mention, Miami has a putrid .223 wOBA and .083 ISO in that split over the last 14 days.

On the other side, Trevor Richards will be pitching for the Marlins – and that’s great news for the Tigers. Richards has allowed two homers in four of his last five starts, so it’s no surprise either that the Marlins have lost all but one of his nine starts this season.

The total jumped up an entire run from 8.0 to 9.0, and you have to believe that’s because of the Tigers and their impending matchup against Richards. Look for Boyd to fry the fish and get the easy win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 7 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 74-51-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-118) – New York Yankees (1.5-run line -168) at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (2-1, 2.97 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.51 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Once again, the top SK Trend Confidence rating is the over in the Orioles-Yankees game. And it’s not hard to see why, with Dan Straily taking the mound for Baltimore. The veteran righty has gotten lit up all season, especially at Camden Yards, allowing nine homers and a 2.35 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings. Straily has allowed a total 15 runs over his last 12 innings of work and the opposition has scored at least seven runs in each of his last four starts.

The Yankees’ offense is rolling, with a double-digit run output in each of their last three games. Much like last night, the best value is going with the over, considering the Yanks’ crazy moneyline (-235), but I don’t mind taking them on the 1.5-run line (-166). Whenever we see so much juice on that 1.5-run line, it almost always tends to win.

CC Sabathia has been on top of his game this season, but if there is a knock on him, it’s the 4.70 ERA and .237 opposing average he’s allowed on the road. The Orioles have hit their fair share of homers against the Yanks this season, but it’s not much of a surprise, considering both teams play in extreme hitter’s parks.

Look for the Yanks to continue adding on to the hurt Straily’s been feeling at Camden Yards this season. But, of course, we’re also looking for the Orioles to chip in a few as well on the total.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-114) – Washington Nationals at New York Mets
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-5, 3.72 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.98 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Sure, both guys haven’t been at the top of their games for most of this season. However, the history of each pitcher against the opposition is just too good to pass up and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the total going under.

Max Scherzer will certainly be determined to take down the reigning Cy Young award winner and his squad. The Mets’ current roster has a combined .165 batting average, .219 on-base percentage and 38% K-rate against him lifetime. Although Scherzer has thrown a quality start in six of the last seven outings, it’s amazing to believe that the Nationals are only 2-8 in his 10 starts this season.

Jacob deGrom got absolutely waxed in his last start, which came against the lowly Marlins. We can call that bad luck or just a case of Miami having a good history against deGrom, but I’ll be willing to overlook that. Main reason – the Nationals’ current roster has a combined .175 batting average, .212 on-base percentage and 34.5% K-rate against deGrom.

Given the history of these pitchers against each team, we won’t see much scoring in this game. I’ll give the Mets the final advantage with the better bullpen and this odd trend of the Nationals losing the majority of Scherzer’s starts.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 (-106) – Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -166)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (2-4, 7.42 ERA/1.80 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (4-4, 3.56 ERA/1.04 WHIP)

Ivan Nova has been absolutely ripped to shreds this season, so it’s not a good sign for him to be facing an Astros team that ranks at, or near, the top of every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. While the veteran righty has allowed at least eight baserunners in each one of his nine starts this season, teams like the Blue Jays and Indians weren’t able to capitalize with runs – don’t expect Nova to be so lucky tonight against the Astros.

Gerrit Cole has only allowed one run over his last four starts, and I would expect that to continue today against a White Sox team that has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games. It’s interesting to note, a James McCann and Yonder Alonso have a decent history against Cole, so maybe they can step into one and help us out with the total.

With all that information on today’s starting pitchers and opposing offenses, we should fully expect the Astros to beat Nova over the head and the cover the total as well. With a little luck on our side, maybe (JUST MAYBE!) the White Sox can add a run or two.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-116) – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Max Fried – L (6-2, 2.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-2, 3.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

We’ve got a heavy trend of totals going under with both sides and they’ll be playing in one of the worst parks in baseball for offense. What a perfect match.

Jeff Samardzija gets a difficult matchup against the Braves, but he has been much better at Oracle Park this season, posting a 2.61 ERA and allowing an opposing batting average of .211. Atlanta’s offense has been somewhat neutralized since coming to San Francisco and its last four games have actually gone under the total. That also makes eight of the last 12 for the Braves that have suffered the same fate.

The key to the under tonight is the California kid, Max Fried, and his matchup against a Giants team that usually always struggles on offense. San Francisco games have gone under the total in three straight and in five of the last six. Fried is coming off one of his best outings of the season, throwing six innings of shutout ball while allowing two hits, two walks and striking out five.

All in all, the ballpark is going to help us more than anything, but the two pitchers certainly help the situation. Look for Atlanta to get the win, with Fried pitching a solid game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

NBA Playoffs Pick: Under 217 (-110) – Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 110) at Toronto Raptors

The two highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (both B+) of the night in NBA are the Bucks and the under.

It took two overtimes for the Raptors to finally defeat the Bucks, and also for the total to go over in Game 3 – what a heartbreaker! However, it’s worth noting how big of a swing the spread is from Game 3 to Game 4, making it a five-point jump in a favor of Milwaukee.

One of the main reasons these Bucks have been so successful is their head coach Mike Budenholzer. It’s true, we typically see Milwaukee get out to slow starts, but we also see this team finish strong. Budenholzer has made the necessary adjustments multiple times throughout these playoffs, most notably after the Bucks’ only loss of these playoffs before Sunday night. Milwaukee came out in Game 2 of the second round against the Celtics and wiped them off the map for the entirety of that series.

The Bucks are 10-2 in these playoffs, covering the spread in each one of their wins. I expect them to remind the Raptors who had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive efficiency rating during the regular season. Budenholzer should have more adjustments to bottle up a fatigued Kawhi Leonard, who is dealing with a slight leg injury.

#FearTheDeer! #BuckNasty!

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 88 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 73-48-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-104) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Domingo German – R (8-1, 2.50 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-5, 5.58 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Whatever the Yankees are doing against David Hess, they need to keep on doing it. In his last two starts against the Evil Empire, Hess has allowed seven homers in 11 innings of work – yikes! Once Hess leaves the game, it doesn’t get any better, as the Orioles’ entire team has allowed an MLB-high 97 homers in 47 games.

OK, great. So, we know where most of the offense is coming from.

The Orioles will likely have a tougher time against Domingo German, but it is their second time seeing him over the last six days. German’s last two road starts (@SF, @TB) haven’t been great, as he’s allowed 10 hits, three walks and seven runs over 11 innings of work. Not to mention, Baltimore has done a fine job offensively against New York in their matchups this season.

Clearly, the way to go here would be betting the Yankees, but their moneyline (-250) and 1.5-run line (-162) odds are a bit pricey. Six of the 10 Orioles-Yankees matchups this season have gone over the total, and we’re looking at a situation where it’ll be seven of 11 at the end of the night.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has an A-grade for the over at 10.5, which is the highest grade of any game on today’s MLB schedule. Luckily for us, the total is actually sitting at 9.5, so that speaks heavy volumes to how many runs we should see tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore: 4 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-110) – Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: +100) at Toronto Blue Jays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (4-2, 4.89 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-6, 2.95 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

Speaking of high grades, the Red Sox and the total going under all both get a B+ for tonight’s game. We’ve got plenty of reasons to believe so.

For one, the Blue Jays’ offense has been brutal lately, especially against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws over the last 14 days, Toronto has an anemic .197 wOBA and .067 ISO. Overall this season against lefties, they rank third-worst in MLB with a .268 wOBA and .107 ISO.

Not only has their offense been bad, but the Blue Jays have been even worse for Marcus Stroman. The righty’s numbers aren’t bad at all, but his team has scored three runs or fewer (mostly fewer) in seven of his 10 starts this season.

On the other side, the Red Sox have won each of the last seven games that Eduardo Rodriguez has started, with six of those wins coming by two runs or more. Despite losing two games to the Astros over the weekend, the Red Sox have seemingly turned the corner with a 14-5 record over the last 19 games.

It’s good news for the under on this game, as the total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5. The Blue Jays’ IRT dropped -0.4, while the Red Sox move slightly downward to -0.1.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-126) – Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-1, 2.25 ERA/0.92 WHIP)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

The moneyline number for this game is quite interesting, considering Caleb Smith is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one gives a damn about. Nonetheless, Tigers’ starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull should have a solid outing tonight — Hell, mostly everyone going against the Marlins does. All in all, I think the most likely outcome here is the total going under 7.5 runs.

Let’s start with Smith, who has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season – that one misnomer, he allowed three runs. Because the Marlins’ offense is so atrocious, the lefty has had to do literally everything imaginable to keep this team in ball games. In fact, six of Smith’s eight starts this season have had seven total runs or fewer scored in the entire game.

Not to be outdone, Turnbull has only allowed five earned runs over his last six starts. As mentioned before, the Marlins’ offense is terrible, and over the last 14 days, they have a .255 wOBA and 30.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Overall this season, Miami ranks near- or dead-last in almost every advanced metric against right-handed pitching.

This game will likely come down to the bullpens late, but I’ll say that the Tigers get the win, based on the awkward moneyline in their favor.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 71-46-4 (60.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: +106) at New York Mets
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (4-1, 2.91 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
NYM: Wilmer Font – R (1-1, 7.08 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

Patrick Corbin has thrown eight quality starts in nine outings this season, three of them coming against the Mets. The lefty has made them look silly all season, mainly in the last two matchups as he totaled 20 strikeouts in 14 innings while only walking two batters. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Mets own a dreadful .197 wOBA, .059 ISO and 32.8% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Not to mention, the Nationals have won five of Corbin’s last six starts. All five of those wins have come by two runs or more.

To say the Mets are struggling would be an understatement, getting shutout twice over the weekend in Miami, and their manager Mickey Callaway is hanging on by a thread. I don’t think there’s any way they could possibly muster up enough strength to get this train back on the track until Callaway is gone.

Wilmer Font will be making his third appearance for the Mets and the last one against these same Nats did not go well. The righty allowed six hits, two walks and five runs over 2 1/3 innings en route to getting the loss. Now that the Nationals’ lineup is mostly back together, look for them to put another world of hurt on Font.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 7 – New York Mets: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (1.5-run line: +114)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (3-4, 4.00 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (4-3, 2.61 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

Mike Leake has been much better of late, but he does run into a Rangers’ lineup that consistently had his number. The current Texas lineup has a combined .351 batting average and .973 OPS in 173 plate appearances against him. In the last meeting between the teams on April 27, Leake allowed 10 hits and nine runs (five earned) over five innings. The Rangers have also lost five of the last six games that Leake has started.

Aside from Opening Day, Mike Minor has been outstanding at Globe Life Park this season, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts and allowing an opposing batting average of .202. The remodeled lefty had a season-high 13 strikeouts in seven innings against the Mariners back in that same start where Leake got thrashed. Seattle’s current roster also owns a 33% K-rate against Minor.

All in all, I think this is going to be a massive offensive display from the Rangers tonight. Texas has the highest IRT (6.1) on tonight’s slate and the game has a total of 11 – I don’t see the Mariners contributing much to the party. It’s interesting to note that the Rangers have only been favored eight times this season and are 6-2 in those games.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (moneyline: -138) at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (4-1, 0.98 ERA/1.01 WHIP)
SF: Andrew Suarez – L (season debut)

Mike Soroka has been outstanding this season, allowing one earned run or fewer in all six of his starts. Not to mention, the young righty still hasn’t allowed a homer yet in 2019. That’ll play well at Oracle Park, which is a notorious pitcher’s park.

On the other side, Andrew Suarez will be making his season debut, and he gets a very tough matchup against a Braves’ team that ranks sixth in all of baseball with a .341 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Suarez wasn’t doing well in Triple-A, posting a 2-3 record with a 6.33 ERA.

We’re looking at a massive mismatch of starting pitchers and that should give the Braves an early advantage, which they should hold on to.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-104) – Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (3-2, 3.16 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
SD: Chris Paddack – R (3-2, 1.99 ERA/0.75 WHIP)

Vegas made quite the statement by putting a 6.5 total on this game, but it does make sense, considering the current form of each offense against right-handed pitching. Both teams have a wOBA under .300, while Diamondbacks have a K-rate of 28% and the Padres at 30.2% against righties over the last 14 days, and that could be why their IRTs both decreased as well – Diamondbacks: -0.3, Padres: -0.2.

Luke Weaver has five quality starts in his last seven outings, one of those coming against these same Padres. Weaver struck out eight batters over 6 1/3 innings but did take the tough loss in a tight 2-1 game — Hopefully, something like we’ll see tonight.

Chris Paddack is coming off his worst start of the season, but it came against a very tough Dodgers’ lineup. He did allow six runs but only three of them were earned. Nonetheless, Paddack has been quite effective, throwing four straight quality starts before that game against the Dodgers.

The young righty doesn’t go too deep into games, but the Padres’ bullpen owns the third-best xFIP (3.71) in all of baseball.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh and listen to Al on 104.9 FM’s “The Horn” today at 11:30 p.m. EST talk about these picks and more!

* 2019 MLB Record: 70-44-4 (61.3%) *

[1:20 p.m. EST] Milwaukee Brewers (-125) at Atlanta Braves
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (6-1, 3.72 ERA)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (0-3, 8.02 ERA)

We’ve got two pitchers heading in absolutely different directions. The Braves did take the first two games of this series, so naturally, I’m expecting the Brew Crew to avoid the sweep today. You know me and my affinity for teams in that scenario.

Brandon Woodruff has allowed a total of three runs over his last four starts, all NL East opponents – and not one of them was the Marlins. So, what’s adding another team to the list?

Mike Foltynewicz has gotten ripped in every outing this season — no sugar coating it. The righty has allowed 23 runs (19 earned) and eight homers in a total of 21 1/3 innings. Not to mention, the opposing team has scored at least nine runs in every one of Folty’s starts this season.

Milwaukee has one of the best lineups in baseball and should take advantage of the struggling Folty early on today.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 9 – Atlanta Braves: 4 *

[3:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (-150) at Texas Rangers
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-3, 4.34 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-3, 6.85 ERA)

The Cardinals have been right around league-average against left-handed pitching, but Drew Smyly is no average pitcher – he’s much worse. The aging lefty has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts, and that’s while only making it out of the fifth inning once — yikes! Not only that, but Smyly has allowed five homers and a massive 1.69 WHIP over those last five starts.

I’m not in love with Jack Flaherty’s road numbers (1-2, 7.23 ERA in four starts) but he’s much better than Smyly and whomever the Rangers’ bullpen has coming out behind him. Flaherty was supposed to have a massive 2019 campaign, so perhaps the beginning of that comes alive today.

St. Louis does have some serious right-handed power at the top of its lineup and ultimately, I feel like that’ll be the difference — especially early on —  today.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 11 – Texas Rangers: 5 *  

[4:00 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5-run line: +120)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-4, 5.93 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (3-1, 3.14 ERA)

The Diamondbacks have the second-best wOBA (.367) and ISO (.229) against left-handed pitching. Sure, MadBum had a solid start against them last night, but Drew Pomeranz is a far worse lefty – and if you want to look at judiciously, MadBum was reeeeeally good practice for Pomeranz. The lesser lefty, Pomeranz, has been hit hard in three of his last four outings before heading to the injured list.

Robbie Ray has been strong over his last five outings. Even in a start at Coors Field back on May 3, only one of five runs he allowed were earned. The Giants have not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, ranking second-worst in wOBA (.264) and fourth-worst in ISO (.114).

The analytics are certainly there – a solid lefty (Ray) going up against a team that sucks against lefties and a shitty lefty going up against a team that is great against lefties. Now, the D-Backs and Ray just have to go out there and do their job.

Last but not least, the total on this game has dropped all the way down to 8.0, thus giving the indication that Ray should be on his A-game today.

* Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 68-43-4 (61.3%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +114)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (3-2, 5.35 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (3-0, 4.86 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Phillies have the highest IRT (+0.7) and second-highest moneyline (-155 to -176) increases on the day. And that’s a good sign, considering Aaron Nola is on the hill for Philly. Aside from a rough outing against the powerful Brewers, Nola held opposing teams to one run in each of his previous three starts.

Meanwhile, these Rockies are striking out at a 31.8% clip over the last seven days, which is the second-highest in all of baseball. Now that the weather is starting to get a little warmer in Philly, we should see Nola get a better grip on the baseball, thus giving him more movement on those breaking pitches.

Antonio Senzatela has been much better on the road (3.31 ERA) than at home (7.27 ERA) this season, but Vegas has already spoken with the increases for the Phillies today. I have a feeling Rhys Hoskins is about to break out of his recent skid, as Senzatela has allowed more extra-base hits to right-handed hitters. Not to mention, Philly has quite a few righties that can do the same with Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, JT Realmuto and Maikel Franco.

Ultimately, I don’t mind the over in this game, considering the bullpens for both sides rank in the bottom third of MLB over the last seven days, but Philly on the 1.5-run line is where I’m planting my flag.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-122) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
BAL: John Means – L (5-3, 2.33 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (season debut)

Progressive Field is one of the few stadiums in baseball that has to deal with these pesky shadows for mid-day games. That’s bad news for an Indians team that already has the fourth-highest K-rate (28.1%) against left-handed pitching.

Hopefully, those shadows help Adam Plutko, who will be making his season debut after pitching down in Triple-A. He did make 17 appearances (12 starts) last season, going 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA, but did pitch well against this Baltimore team during that stretch.

All in all, the background conditions should be able to give a nice boost to both pitchers today early on, and that should hold off the double-digit total for long enough. The SK Trend Confidence rating also likes this game as one of its top plays today.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +106)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-4, 5.77 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
LAA: Griffin Canning – R (1-1, 5.65 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

A lot of people that I trust are big on this Griffin Canning kid, and I can pick up what they’re putting down. Despite losing at hitter-friendly Camden Yards in his last outing, Canning has posted at least six strikeouts in all three of his starts this season. The Royals’ offense has been quite stagnant of late, with only four runs over the last three games. Prior to yesterday’s two-run output, KC posted one run or fewer in four of five games.

Jakob Junis has not been good this season, allowing at least eight baserunners in seven of his last eight starts. That’s not good news for an Angels team that has a massive .401 wOBA and .219 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Just as we did yesterday, we’re going with the Angels big here.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

—

NBA Playoffs Pick: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -110)

It took the Toronto Raptors three quarters to finally show themselves but did come through for us in relinquishing the game on Wednesday night. Just as we saw, the Milwaukee Bucks are a more well-rounded team from top to bottom and that’ll be more evident tonight.

The Bucks shot 25% from 3-point range, while Kyle Lowry of the Raptors went 7-for-9 from behind the arc — and Milwaukee still won. Believe me, neither of those will happen tonight, and the Bucks will coast to victory.

SK Trend Confidence rating believes the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread is the best value pick of the evening. Basically, you don’t even need to waste all that money ($270 to win $100) betting the Bucks outright when you can just sit back and watch them easily devour the Raptors.

– – –

* 2019 MLB Record: 66-39-4 (62.9%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-116) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (moneyline: -155)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.08 ERA/1.07 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-4, 3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The Nationals got a nice +0.5 boost to their implied run total (IRT) and their moneyline odds increased from -124 to -155, which is third-highest on the slate. Since Gerardo Parra came to DC, the Nats’ offense got a jolt of energy and more help is on the way with Trea Turner returning off the injured list tonight, while Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon have also returned in recent days. Parra won’t be in the starting lineup tonight against the lefty, but he could have an impact pinch hitting later in the game.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve only won two of his nine starts this season. Look for that trend to get bucked as the Cubs’ current roster has a combined 38.6% K-rate in 101 career plate appearances against Scherzer – Javy Baez and Kris Bryant have struck out a combined 14 times in 21 plate appearances – Yikes!

Cole Hamels goes for the Cubbies, and he’s done a fine job of limiting damage from opposing teams. The veteran lefty has been slightly worse away from Wrigley Field, allowing an opposing batting average of 66 points higher on the road than at home. I don’t think Hamels gets absolutely rocked tonight, but we could certainly see a score similar to the one Chicago lost by in Cincinnati last night.

It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer has a K-prop of 9.5 tonight, with +120 juice on the over. I’ve found myself gravitating more to these props lately, so that’s just some side action to throw on top.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -116) at Detroit Tigers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-1, 2.63 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It has certainly been a rough stretch for the Tigers, allowing 8.2 runs per game over their last nine contests. Yesterday’s 17-3 thumping appears like it could happen all over again, as evidenced by the +0.6 IRT and moneyline (-145 to -180) increases for the A’s — both are the highest on tonight’s slate.

Oakland has Top-5 numbers against left-handed pitching this season in nearly every advanced-metric and owns a .365 ISO over the last 14 days — the highest for any split on tonight’s slate. That’s all good news, considering Detroit’s bullpen has pitched a whopping 35 innings over the last seven days – eight more innings than any other team over that span. Look for Daniel Norris to possibly get extended a little more, and rocked in the process.

Although he’s been allowing too many baserunners lately for my liking, Frankie Montas is an absolute stud. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Tigers’ team near or dead-last in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at their numbers over the last 14 days in that split, it doesn’t get much better, as they own a putrid .256 wOBA and 25.4% K-rate.

The Tigers have lost the last four games by a combined deficit of 32 runs, and their last 11 losses have been by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +124)
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-4, 4.47 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-3, 6.69 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It was a good start to the season for Brad Keller, but things have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Keller has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts with the only misnomer coming against the Tigers, who are the worst hitting team in the American League.

The Angels received a +0.5 IRT increase, which is tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate. Makes sense, considering their outstanding .407 wOBA, .238 ISO and 14.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Over the course of the season against righties, the Angels rank first in K-rate (15.7%), second in wRC+ (120) and fourth in wOBA (.346).

Matt Harvey has looked much better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Royals, going seven innings and allowing two hits, three walks and one run while striking out five. KC’s offense has not been at its best of late, scoring one run or fewer four of the last five games and in five of the last seven.

Keller’s last four starts have all been Royals’ defeats by three runs or more, while the team has suffered some convincing losses already this week. Let’s take a chance here and get plus-money on our bet for this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-128) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-158)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (3-1, 2.09 ERA/1.09 WHIP)
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (3-2, 4.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

I almost feel like we can take last night’s game preview, copy/paste and replace the pitcher’s names. Don’t worry, I won’t.

Not much changed with the Pirates and their struggles against left-handed pitching on Thursday, as they posted a total of two runs against Eric Lauer and the Padres’ bullpen. Pittsburgh faces another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, and he comes into tonight’s start in better form than Lauer did. Certain trends have already followed teams from the beginning of this season, and this one is no different for the Pirates – they just simply can’t hit lefties well.

The Padres do have the third-highest IRT (+0.4) and moneyline (-130 to -158) increases on the slate, which is interesting. They have well below-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching and Jordan Lyles has been quite solid this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season.

We can look to the first five innings total of 4.5 when figuring out how this game will play out. There’s a huge -160 amount of juice on the under there, so look for the Padres to capitalize on the Pirates’ bullpen late once again. Not trying to play God here, just looking at the numbers!

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 61-38-4 (61.6%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -152)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.23 ERA/1.83 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-2, 3.02 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

Dan Straily has actually been solid away from Camden Yards this season. Only two of his seven starts have come on the road and they were against the Red Sox and Twins, two of the better offenses in baseball. Straily allowed only one earned run over nine innings in those games.

It’s not like today’s opponent has been crushing the ball either. The Indians rank third-worst in all of MLB with a .282 wOBA (weight on-base average) against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days against righties, Cleveland’s projected lineup owns a .320 wOBA and .099 ISO – both of which, are not good at all. Not to mention, seven of the last eight Indians’ games have gone under the total.

Now, the real reason for the total going under is Trevor Bauer in a fantastic matchup against the Orioles. Bauer had a fantastic outing in Oakland last time out after two uncharacteristically-bad starts against lesser teams (MIA, CHW). This is still one of the best pitchers in baseball taking the mound against an offense that has scored three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 games.

Just like the majority of Indians’ games coming in under the total, Orioles’ contests have suffered the same fate in 12 of their last 16, including each of the last four. Also, like Cleveland, Baltimore’s projected lineup is struggling against right-handed pitching with a .257 wOBA and .119 ISO over the last 14 days.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under in this game as the top MLB play of the night, and the zaftig juice (-152) on the 1.5-run line is a pretty good indicator that the Indians will get the comfortable win.

* Final Score Projection: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-114) – Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (moneyline: -135)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (4-2, 3.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (4-1, 1.76 ERA/0.99 WHIP)

This may seem like a scary proposition with an 8.5-run total at one of the best hitting parks in baseball, but we do have two elite pitchers in solid form. The total has decreased incrementally in each game of this series, so we are trending in the right direction here.

I’m expecting a big performance from Luis Castillo, given the fact that Cincy’s moneyline odds have the second-highest increase (-110 to -135) of the day. The electric righty has been efficient in every split this season, especially with a 2-1 record and 1.65 ERA in five home starts, while going 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA in six nighttime starts.

Chicago had a streak of six straight games with the total going under snapped last night. Even though they posted five runs on Wednesday, four of them came via the home run – they won’t have that fortune tonight against Castillo.

Jose Quintana will be able to keep this Reds’ offense off the scoreboard for most of the night. Against tough competition (MIL, STL, ARZ, LAD), the lefty has been able to hold these team to three runs or fewer in each of the last four starts. Cincy has done fairly well against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, and that is likely how they get the win, but I think JQ at least holds them to around three or four runs.

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under more than any other outcome in this game, but the massive moneyline increase for the Reds is quite telling here as well.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-110) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (moneyline: -125)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (2-1, 3.40 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (2-4, 5.75 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Eric Lauer is coming off his worst start of the season, which was a very tough road matchup at Coors Field, but the guy comes through when gifted with favorable matchups. The Pirates head to San Diego with MLB’s worst ISO (.091), third-worst wOBA (.266) and fifth-highest K-rate (28.2%) against left-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, Pittsburgh has a .023 ISO – for reference, that’s a level or two above stepping to the plate without a bat.

San Diego’s offense hasn’t been much better, striking out at a 33% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days – the highest of any split on the day. Trevor Williams needs all the help he can get, after allowing 25 hits over his last 19 innings of work. The righty has been able to keep runs off the board, for the most part, but those baserunners could ultimately be the determining factor in who wins tonight.

The game total has dropped a half-run, while the Padres (-0.2) and Pirates’ (-0.3) IRTs have dropped as well. Look for the Padres to take a close, low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB & NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 59-38-4 (61%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -230) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (6-1, 2.51 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-1, 15.75 ERA/2.75 WHIP)

So, this is awkward. Justin Verlander will return to the only MLB city he called home before accepting a trade to Houston back in 2017.

Verlander has been absolutely phenomenal this season, allowing one run or fewer in six of his nine starts, while Detroit’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers have well below-average numbers in the same split.

This just isn’t going to end well for Detroit, losers of the first two games in this series by a combined score of 19-5. Houston’s offense is rocking and rolling over the last four games, with a total of 45 runs – the same amount as Miami has scored since April 21. Not to mention, the Astros’ offense ranks near the top of MLB in nearly every advanced metric, while owning absolutely gorgeous numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I talked about it yesterday, but it’s quite telling when you see a team with zaftig juice on the 1.5-run line. The Astros are listed at -230 in that regard, in comparison to the -350 moneyline odds. Also, the IRTs for both teams are unlike anything you’ll ever see, as the Astros are at 6.7 while the Tigers are at 3.5 – that type of differential is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-120) – Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-3, 2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-4, 6.07 ERA/1.49 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the night in MLB is the under in this game, and that makes plenty of sense with Mike Minor on the mound for the Rangers. The made-over lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and even held his own against the hottest lineup in baseball during his last start against the Astros.

KC has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, owning the fourth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .281) in that split. Not to mention, things haven’t gotten any better over the last 14 days.

While Jorge Lopez has given up a decent number of runs, he has gone at least six innings in five of the last seven outings. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been particularly great against right-handed pitching, with a combined .274 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Minor is clearly the better pitcher here, so I expect him to get the win. Lopez can at least hold his own for a while and not let this thing get out of hand.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:30 p.m. EST] Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -115)

We’ve got some NBA action for the people tonight! The top SK Trend Confidence rating is on the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread, considering they have covered eight of their nine games during the playoffs. I typically don’t bet many NBA games prior to tip-off, opting for the live bets, but tonight is a special occasion.

The Bucks’ roster is miles ahead of the Raptors, who are coming off an emotionally-draining seven-games series against the 76ers. Just as we saw last night in the Trail Blazers-Warriors matchup, Portland wasn’t able to muster enough energy for its new opponent. There’s something to be said about carrying over the same intensity from one series to another – it’s remarkably tough and takes time to make the necessary adjustments.

When looking at Toronto’s roster, there’s not much there. Kawhi Leonard is basically all the Raptors have working for them, and that was evident towards the end of that last series. Sure, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are fine players, but it didn’t even look like they wanted to touch the ball down the stretch of Game 7 against Philly.

Look for the Bucks to neutralize Kawhi and make the other role-playing Raptors beat them. Bucks big! #FearTheDear

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 82 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 56-38-4 (60%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Wade Miley – L (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-1, 10.80 ERA)

Ryan Carpenter doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it hasn’t been good. After getting ripped for six runs in five innings during his season debut on Thursday, that upped Carpenter’s WHIP to 1.72 and an opposing batting average of .356 over 27 1/3 career innings of work. Yikes!

We always look at these IRT increases because they tell a story about the game before the first pitch has even been thrown. The Astros rank in the top three of nearly every advanced metric against left-handed pitching. Hence, why they had the highest IRT (5.6) at the open and now the biggest increase (+0.7) moving them to 6.3 – a full run more than three teams tied for second-most at 5.2.

Wade Miley should get plenty of run support from the Houston offense, which is always a benefit pitching for this team. The Astros have won the lefty’s last four starts by a combined score of 32-9, with all of them coming by two runs or more. Miley has four quality starts in his last five outings, and in the only misnomer, he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed one run.

The Astros are going to tear these Tigers apart, as evidenced by the massive -144 juice on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 11 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
TB: Charlie Morton – R (3-0, 2.64 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.11 ERA)

Both of these pitchers have been outstanding this season with a sub-three ERA and we’ve got the advanced metrics to prove how effective they’ll be tonight.

The Rays have the highest K-rate (30.6%) against left-handed pitching, while Caleb Smith has a 0.89 WHIP and 56 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings. Any questions?

The Marlins have the highest K-rate (27.1%) with the lowest wOBA (.263), wRC+ (65) and ISO (.089) against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton has been more hittable than Smith, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season. It never gets old ripping on Miami’s offense, which has posted two runs or fewer in eight of its last nine games.

I get it, taking the under on 6.5 runs will be about two-to-three hours of nervous reckoning, but you should have plenty of confidence with Morton and Smith going toe-to-toe.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-138 ML, 1.5-run line: +132)
TEX: Shelby Miller – R (1-2, 7.48 ERA)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (1-1, 3.06 ERA)

It’s quite telling to see the Royals in that grouping of teams tied for the second-highest IRT (5.2) on the slate. There’s a good reason, though, as the Rangers will have Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller does have a massive 1.92 WHIP and Kansas City has above-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. KC can beat up on Miller early and then get to the Texas bullpen, which has the sixth-highest xFIP (4.64) in all of baseball over the last 14 days.

Danny Duffy gets himself a fantastic matchup here too, as the Rangers have the third-highest K-rate (28.4%) against left-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but Texas is striking out at a 34.9% clip against lefties over the last 14 days.

I could go either way here on the moneyline or 1.5-run line with KC. You don’t have to risk much on the moneyline and it’s a nice little plus-score on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *