Tag: MLB Betting

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 36-27-2 (57.1%) *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (-102)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (1-1, 2.37 ERA)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-0, 2.80 ERA)

Marco Gonzales has been fantastic at T-Mobile Park this season, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts there. The Cubs have been quite good against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the Top-10 of most categories, but they do have a big series against the rival Cardinals starting Friday afternoon. Perhaps, Gonzales catches a Chicago team looking ahead to its next series and continues that string of dominance at home.

Jon Lester will be pitching about 35 miles from the place he attended high school (Tacoma, WA) as a teenager — could be some distractions with family, ticket requests, etc. In his last start, Lester returned from a two-week stint on the Injured List and looked great in five limited innings against the Dodgers. However, if the Cubs hold him to about 79 pitches once again, that means their bullpen will present in this game. And that’s a good thing for the Mariners, considering the Cub’s pen has the second-worst SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days. Additionally, the Seattle’s offense has the second-best analytical metrics against left-handed pitching this season, which could certainly make life even more difficult on Lester.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, -120)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (1-0, 3.93 ERA)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (2-0, 5.68 ERA)

OK, let’s try this again. I took the Phillies on the 1.5-run line yesterday and that was an absolute disaster. Part of that could be due to the Tigers changing their starting pitcher mid-day, thus not giving Philly enough time to prepare for Spencer Turnbull.

It’s about damn time that Aaron Nola gets back on the good foot. He hasn’t had that trademark ace-start since Opening Day, although, holding the Marlins to one run in that last start still came at the expense of allowing seven hits. However, the Tigers own the third-worst power metrics (ISO: .141) and fifth-worst weighted on-base percentage (wOBA: .290) against right-handed pitching. Nola has been fantastic at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career, compiling a 25-14 record to go along with a 3.17 ERA in 50 career starts there.

The total on this game dropped an entire run, as did each team’s IRT (Tigers: -0.7, Phillies: -0.4), so I believe that’s even further evidence that Nola gets back to elite form tonight. Not to mention, the Phils -245 moneyline number is BY FAR their highest of the season and their 42-digit increase on the moneyline since the open is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins
CLE: Corey Kluber – R (2-2, 5.81 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (2-0, 2.17 ERA)

This is an excellent pitching matchup going down in Miami tonight, and it’s quite interesting to note that Caleb Smith is actually the one coming in on a high note – not Corey Kluber. Smith has been dazzling tough NL East opponents in each of his five starts, the last four being of the quality variety. In fact, Smith has allowed 2 runs or fewer in four of those five starts. The Indians’ offense has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the bottom five of most major categories in that split.

Kluber, much like Nola (who I talked about earlier), needs to get back on the good foot to elite form. Aside from Opening Day (again like Nola), Kluber really hasn’t had that trademark ace-start that we’re all so accustomed to. Thankfully, he’ll be taking on a National League team, which takes away the DH, and it helps that the Marlins are one of (if not) the worst offensive team in baseball.

So, we’ve got two talented pitchers against two anemic offenses. No reason to get cute here, especially with the game total dropping a half-run to 6.5. Also, the Indians’ IRT (-0.5) and moneyline (-34 digits) both dropped significantly, thus alluding to yet another good outing by Smith. I don’t think the Marlins rough up Kluber, but it does seem like they could pull the upset in a low-scoring game tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, April 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

– MLB Season Record: 35-24-2 (59.3%)

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +100)
DET: Tyson Ross – R (1-3, 4.03 ERA)
PHI: Vince Velasquez – R (1-0, 1.99 ERA)

Vince Velasquez has been outstanding to the start the season, allowing only five runs over 22 2/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.01. Tonight, he’ll take the mound against a Tigers team that has scored the fewest runs (91) in the American League – third-worst overall. Detroit also ranks fourth-worst in K-rate (26.6%) against right-handed pitching.

The value for Philly on the 1.5-run line (+100) is fantastic, compared to the -210 moneyline to win outright. There’s a noticeable difference of talent between each of these lineups, so I’m rolling with the Phils who are 11-5 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-120) – St. Louis Cardinals (-106) at Washington Nationals
STL: Adam Wainwright – R (2-2, 3.96 ERA)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-3, 6.00 ERA)

Anibal Sanchez and his 1.78 WHIP run into a hot Cardinals team that has won eight of their last nine games. In fact, Sanchez has allowed at least eight baserunners in all five of his starts this season. It’s a likely scenario that St. Louis exceeds the 9.5 total all by itself, considering the Nationals also have the league’s worst bullpen.

Adam Wainwright hasn’t been terrible this season, but it’s not like he’s been immaculate either. His last outing against the Brewers inspired some hope, yet most of his better starts came against doormats like the Padres and Pirates. I’d expect Wainwright to cough up some runs, but surely not as many as Sanchez and the Nationals’ bullpen.

The IRT increased slightly for both teams, with the total jumping up a half-run to 9.5, so Vegas is liking a high-scoring game in DC tonight. Not to mention, the -120 juice on the over is quite telling, especially with it only being -102 on the under. The SK Value Pick trends also have the highest grade of the night on the Cardinals to win outright, so we’ve got a nice double-dip on our hands!

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 9 – Washington Nationals: 6 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 (-108) – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (2-0, 5.25 ERA)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-2, 3.65 ERA)

Well, I had Over 8 in this game last night and was let down big time by both squads. The Giants had baserunners on all night, but couldn’t get them around to score – they actually got all three of their runs on one swing, of course. The Dodgers had the potential for a massive sixth inning but a line drive, which would have scored two more runs, got caught and turned into a double play. Ugh, is all I have to say about that.

It’s a new day, though, as Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers. His 5.25 ERA is a bit skewed, considering the tough level of competition he’s gone against – the Reds were his easiest opponent and it’s no surprise that was his best start of the season. The Giants have MLB’s second-worst wOBA (.275) against right-handed pitching this season, so I’d expect Buehler to have a fantastic night and possibly begin a long string of quality starts in the process.

Drew Pomeranz has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season. One of those starts was against these same Dodgers, and Pomeranz allowed two runs over five innings. The Dodgers do have the eighth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching this season, so that lends some more optimism to the under in this game.

All in all, we do have two viable pitchers in one of the league’s worst parks for offense and teams with two of the lower IRTs on the slate. Not to mention, the SK Value Pick trends have a B+ grade for the under for this game. Vegas dropped the Dodgers’ IRT -0.5 quite early on today, which subsequently moved the total from 7.5 to 7.0. Defense! (clap, clap) Defense!

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (-1.5, +122)
CIN: Tanner Roark – R (1-1, 3.24 ERA)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (2-2, 4.85 ERA)

The key to success for Zack Wheeler this season has been simple – don’t face the Nationals.
* WSH (twice): allowed 10 hits, 8 walks and 11 runs with 9 Ks over 9 2/3 innings
* PHI (twice)/ATL: allowed 16 hits, 6 walks and 5 runs with 24 Ks over 20 innings

Wheeler registered a quality start in each of the last three outings. His most impressive effort came in that last outing against the Phillies, throwing seven innings of a shutout ball while striking out 11 – a season high. Tonight, the Reds’ -0.4 IRT (implied run total) decrease is the largest on the board, and that’s just a further indicator that Wheeler is locked and loaded for his matchup.

Tanner Roark will face a familiar opponent, just doing in a different jersey this time around. The former Nationals pitcher has an 8-4 record with a 3.07 ERA in 22 appearances (16 starts) against the Mets lifetime. In fact, Roark has pitched very well in his last three starts, allowing only earned run in each of those.

Unlike the game you’ll read about below, I have more confidence in the Mets -1.5 run-line because of the recent performance of these respective bullpens. In terms of those fancy advanced metrics we all hate/love so much, the Mets’ bullpen ranks first in xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) and second in SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days – The Reds rank ninth-worst in xFIP and fifth-worst in SIERA over the same span.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Cincinnati Reds: 1 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-164)
SD: Nick Margevicius – L (2-2, 3.60 ERA)
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (1-1, 1.69 ERA)

Lots of good trends for the Braves in this game, so let’s get a tomahawk chant going! The trends that stood out above all:
* Braves moneyline increase from -140 to -164 – highest on the slate
* Braves have the highest wOBA [weighted on-base average]: (.391) vs left-handed pitching
* Padres have the third-highest K-rate (27%) vs right-handed pitching

Mike Soroka takes the hill for Atlanta, and he has been fantastic in each of those two starts this season. The young righty has allowed only two runs over 10 2/3 innings while fanning 13 batters in the process.

Nick Margevicius goes for San Diego, and he is also another talented young hurler. However, his 1.08 WHIP looks a lot prettier due to two matchups against the Giants. In fact, Margevicius has come back down to Earth over the last two starts (vs. SEA, vs. COL), allowing 11 hits, six walks and seven runs over his last nine innings.

I would love to go with the Braves on the -1.5 run-line, but their bullpen is an absolute disaster right now. Without boring the non-traditional baseball fan to death, one of the best metrics (SIERRA) ranks Atlanta’s bullpen as the second-worst in MLB. For that reason, we’ll keep it simple with the ATL moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 5 – San Diego Padres: 4 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -108) at Minnesota Twins
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-0, 2.61 ERA)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (2-2, 4.37 ERA)

Sure, the Twins lead MLB in homers per game (1.96) but they’ve had six matchups against Orioles’ pitching to thank for that. Tonight, Minnesota will face one of the best pitchers in baseball who has absolutely owned this current lineup.

Justin Verlander has held the Twins’ current roster to a combined .167 batting average, .210 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage and .535 OBP – yikes! In fact, the veteran righty just held Minnesota to one run while striking out eight batters over eight innings in his last outing. Verlander has allowed four or fewer hits in four of his six starts, including each of the last three. Not to mention, if Verlander slips in the slightest, the Astros’ bullpen ranks first in SIERA and xFIP this season.

All in all, this is just a flat-out mismatch of talent between the two starting pitchers this evening. Granted, Odorizzi did get the win in his last outing against these same Astros, but he did allow eight hits and found himself in trouble for most of the evening. I expect Houston to make him pay for those misfortunes this time around.

I’m going with the -1.5 run-line in this game because of that mismatch of starting pitchers, and the Astros have won by two runs or more in four of Verlander’s six starts this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Minnesota Twins: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Kenta Maeda – R (3-2, 5.20 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-1, 3.00 ERA)

Giants’ pitching was absolutely ripped in the three-game series against the Yankees over the weekend, allowing 24 runs, and life won’t get any easier with the Dodgers coming to town. Oracle Park is one of the worst venues for offense in all of MLB, hence why we’ve only seen one eight-run total there this season. The eight-run total in this game is quite interesting, considering it never got any higher than 7.5 in the three-game series at Dodger Stadium at the beginning of the month, but there is some solid reasoning to think we’ll see the fourth straight total go over the mark at Oracle Park.

The Dodgers do have the second-best wOBA (.356) vs right-handed pitching this season and three of the last four games that Jeff Samardzija has pitched in produced a double-digit number of runs.

On the flip side, the Giants have four batters with a .294 lifetime average or better against Kenta Maeda. Just like Samardzija, Maeda’s starts have been producing a lot of runs, with four of the five surrendering nine runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (season debut)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

Two very hittable southpaws go up against one another at Citi Field, and even though Vegas has lowered the total on this game, I see it going the other way. What’s interesting here too is the wind that’ll be blowing in from right field. The way Citi Field is designed, that actually creates a Jetstream off the wall behind home plate out to left field.

That’s a perfect scenario for runs, considering the Mets rank fourth in weighted on-base average (wOBA) while the Brewers are eighth.

To be honest, I have no idea why the Brewers brought Gio Gonzalez back. He didn’t pitch well enough in the minors for the Yankees to add him to their minor league roster, but perhaps Milwaukee sees something we don’t. Believe me, I’ll keep searching.

Aside from one start in Philly, Steven Matz has actually been very good this season. However, with all these power righty bats that the Brewers have, I’m not feeling too optimistic about his chances in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – New York Mets: 5 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-3 3.65 ERA)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (2-1, 5.25 ERA)

This is my favorite play of the day, as we have two very underrated pitchers going up against one another. And Vegas has taken notice, dropping the game total from 8.5 to 7.5 – subsequently, the IRT dropped -0.5 for each as well. The weather also comes into play today, with the wind blowing in from right field at about 10 mph.

Jack Flaherty had plenty of tough matchups this season – three against the Brewers, one against the Dodgers, and his easiest came at home against the Padres. Against the Brewers, Flaherty has allowed 13 runs over 13 innings – against everyone else, he has allowed one run over 11 innings. His record and ERA just don’t match up to the type of power-pitcher this guy is, and you can thank the Brewers for that.

Apparently, Sonny Gray really did need to get away from the Yankees. Finally, he is coming back around to be the pitcher we all thought he was. Despite pitching at another hitter’s haven, Gray has only allowed one homer this season – and it didn’t even come in Cincy! The righty actually has 18 strikeouts over his last 11 1/3 innings of work, and it came against good competition (at Dodgers, vs. Braves).

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (-110 ML) at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (3-1, 3.21 ERA)
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (2-1, 3.33 ERA)

The Cubs have a combined .407 batting average and 1.076 OPS in 100 career plate appearances against Luke Weaver. All of that comes from his days with the Cardinals, but it’s certainly something to consider for today’s matchup.

Perhaps, the main reason for loving the Cubbies today is Jose Quintana, who has allowed 14 hits, three walks and two runs while striking out 25 batters over his last 21 innings of work.

Keeping it short and simple, fly the W flag – Cubbies win!

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, April 27 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[2:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -116)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-1, 8.59 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (3-1, 2.97 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios pitching at Target Field. This is a guy who loves sleeping in his own bed and getting that good home cooking. In two home starts this season, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing only six hits, two walks and two runs while striking out 17 over 14 1/3 innings. In fact, he is 20-5 when pitching in Minnesota since 2017.

For the Orioles, it’ll be Dan Straily taking the mound, and he has been nowhere near as efficient as his counterpart this season. Straily, who has surrendered seven homers over 14 2/3 innings this season, will be facing a deadly Twins lineup that is tied for fifth-most in MLB – despite playing the fewest games of any team. Not to mention, Minnesota hit five homers last night against Baltimore pitching.

The scene is set this afternoon for a comfortable Twins victory, so we’ll take them on the 1.5-run line and only lay -116 as opposed to the massive -260 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (0-2, 3.52 ERA)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-1, 5.89 ERA)

The Reds exploded for 12 runs last night and will have a great chance to start another carousel around the basepaths against Dakota Hudson, who has a massive 2.09 WHIP this season. Not to mention, he has allowed eight homers over 18 1/3 innings of work. With the wind blowing out to left field at about 14-16 mph during the game, this could definitely be problematic for Hudson and the Cardinals if he continues those lackluster ways.

Tyler Mahle takes the hill for Cincy, coming off two rough outings out West, where he allowed 18 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. Just like Hudson, if he continues to allow baserunners to get aboard, we could see some big blasts that bring those guys around to home plate.

I do feel like the Reds come back with another victory in this one, but you would have to expect the Cardinals to put up a good fight after getting embarrassed at home last night – that doesn’t happen often.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[3:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (2-1, 2.77 ERA)

The A’s have not been able to figure out Blue Jays’ pitching, only scoring eight runs over the four matchups this season. And it won’t get any easier today as Aaron Sanchez takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA. This will only be the second start at Rogers Centre for Sanchez this season, but we’re looking for him to be quite comfortable in the friendly home confines.

The lefty Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, and he has been able to limit opposing hitters to one home run over 26 2/3 innings this season. Anderson has been able to wiggle his way out of a few jams early on, but it’s a good sign that his control has been intact, allowing two walks or fewer in four of his five starts.

The IRT in this game came down a half-run to nine, so Vegas is thinking both starters should be quite effective in this matchup. I’ll have to agree and put my money on the under this afternoon.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, April 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We’re back and fully recharged from the Betting on Sports America Conference in Secaucus, NJ. A big thanks go out to everyone that set up the great event and the attendees that stopped by the SpreadKnowledge booth. You’re all welcome for the orange pens!

There might be two games (Brewers-Mets & Marlins-Phillies) threatened by the inclement weather but plenty of other action going on around MLB tonight for us to take advantage of.

[7:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (2-2, 8.28 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-3, 1.76 ERA)

The current Blue Jays’ roster hasn’t seen much of Mike Fiers, but when they have – oh my goodness. Toronto’s roster has a combined .362 batting average and 1.005 OPS in 49 career plate appearances, which is mind-blowing, considering Justin Smoak’s 2-for-12 (with 6 Ks) mark is holding the numbers back somewhat. Fiers has just flat out sucked over his last three starts, allowing six runs in each of them and a total of 23 hits and five homers over the last 10 innings. Yikes!

Marcus Stroman hasn’t had the best luck, as you can see from his 1-3 record to go along with the microscopic 1.76 ERA. But he did skill this same A’s team in his last start, allowing only one run over eight innings. It is, however, a very tough proposition to be that successful against a team for the second time in as many starts.

One other factor is the MLB debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr. tonight, which should have quite an electric feel in the ballpark. I’d expect all of these hitters to be at the top of their games with the spotlight shining a little brighter than usual for an A’s-Blue Jays game. Also, both teams (A’s: +0.3, Blue Jays: +0.2) had their respective IRTs increase slightly, thus hinting to some additional offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 5 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (0-1, 5.59 ERA)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (2-1, 4.97 ERA)

With the exception of Yadier Molina (3-for-22, 4 Ks) and Kolten Wong (0-for-15, 7 Ks), a lot of these Cardinals hitters have made life a living hell for Anthony DeSclafani. In fact, their current roster holds a combined .286 batting average and .891 OPS against DeSclafani in 143 career plate appearances. Much of that is due to the big boppers on St. Louis, Matt Carpenter (9-for-22, 3 HR, 1.536 OPS) and Paul Goldschmidt (8-for-13, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 1.720 OPS).

Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the Cards, and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling from his last outing against the Mets. The 30-year-old righty only allowed four hits, two walks and two runs over eight innings – clearly his best start of the season. After losing his season debut, Mikolas has rebounded with a 2-0 record over the team’s last four starts, and the Cardinals are undefeated in each of those four starts.

Look for St. Louis to stay on the good foot and win for the fifth straight time that Mikolas starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 3 *

[9:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (1-3 3.54 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 3.95 ERA)

Apparently, the theme of the evening is pitchers facing the team they just saw in their previous start. Both of these guys pitched very well at Wrigley Field last weekend, albeit in conditions that were not favorable for offenses. In fact, every single game of last weekend’s Cubs-Diamondbacks went under the total.

Well, Vegas thinks we’ll see a much different type of game as the total has jumped from 8.5 to 9. 5 – that gives us IRT increases (Cubs: +0.6, D-Backs: +0.4) as well. And I agree in thinking we’ll see plenty of runs in the desert tonight.

While Robbie Ray usually gets a good number of strikeouts, he has allowed at least four walks in three of his five starts this season. The Cubs didn’t have an answer for him and the D-Backs bullpen last weekend, but seeing Ray for the second time in five days should give their offense the upper hand.

I’ve never been a fan of Kyle Hendricks, but he did make the D-Backs look silly with 11 strikeouts over seven innings. Once again, I do think there’s a big advantage for offenses twice within a week. Prior to that last outing against Arizona, Hendricks had allowed 14 runs (eight earned) and struck out 10 batters over 13 1/3 innings of work. Look for him to come back down to Earth tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We had some great data on the Mets-Phillies and Red Sox-Tigers games for Monday night. Unfortunately, those games look like they’ll be completely washed out by the rain. But don’t you worry, folks. Spread Knowledge will move past the inclement weather and find this MLB goodness for the people!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-1, 2.64 ERA)
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (3-0, 3.26 ERA)

The total on this game has fallen off a cliff from 8.5 to 7.5, with both teams’ IRT subsequently decreasing as well – Rays: -0.7, Royals: -0.4. A big reason for that is because Rays’ outfielder Austin Meadows landing on the injured list, and that’ll certainly hurt this team which has lost four straight games.

Although I don’t think Meadows’ injury is the end of the world, Vegas certainly seems to think there won’t be many runs in this game. Brad Keller (1.17 WHIP) and Yonny Chirinos (0.83 WHIP) have both done a fantastic job of keeping runners off the basepaths this season, thus giving more evidence to the under in this game.

We’ll keep it short and sweet on this one, giving the Rays the advantage because of their bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (1-2, 4.76 ERA)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-0, 3.94 ERA)

The Implied Run Total (IRT) has jumped up a bit in favor of both teams – Astros: +0.3, Twins: +0.2 – and there’s plenty of artillery to go around to justify such an increase. An Astros’ array of arms that allowed two runs or fewer in five straight games, suddenly coughed up a total of 20 runs in two games over the weekend against the Rangers.

Brad Peacock takes the hill for Houston, and he is typically not someone that will go deep into games. The Astros’ bullpen has been a bit overworked here these last two days, thus setting the scene for a tough battle against the Twins tonight. Not to mention, Peacock is 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA over his career in seven appearances against Minnesota.

Jake Odorizzi goes for the Twins, and while the righty does own a 3-1 mark and 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Astros, he did get roughed up for six runs and nine hits over 10 2/3 innings against them last season. Minnesota’s bullpen had a busy weekend itself, playing a doubleheader in Baltimore on Saturday and then using three of its better relievers for an inning yesterday.

All of those factors, combined with an Astros’ offense that scored at least seven runs in four of the last five games, make this an appealing bet on the over.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Minnesota Twins: 5 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-104)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (0-2, 7.23 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (0-2, 9.64 ERA)

We could easily call this a logistics nightmare for the Yankees, having to fly all the way across the country after playing a Sunday afternoon game, while the Angels stayed put in Southern California. But have you seen what the Yanks’ lineup is going to look like without Aaron Judge? Yikes!

While Matt Harvey is not the same guy from the days of being labeled the “Dark Knight,” I do think this is an opportune time for him to get back on the good foot. After all, Harvey’s four starts this season have been against solid offenses of the Rangers (twice), Brewers and Athletics, the latter of which was his best. Given the Yanks’ itinerary ahead of tonight’s matchup, I feel like Harvey has an outing that is good enough to get the Halos the victory.

J.A. Happ has not lived up to the billing for the Yankees this season, but he did finally make it out of the fifth inning in his last – something he was unable to do in the first three starts. It’s still worth noting, however, that Happ has allowed six home runs in 18 2/3 innings of work this season — and that’s against the Orioles (twice), White Sox and Red Sox. It’s possible that Happ is motivated to pitch much better with a B- or C-list roster behind him, but I still feel like the Angels are the more talented team in this current-day scenario.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – New York Yankees: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Easter Sunday, April 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Picks

[2:20 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 4.64 ERA)
CHC: Tyler Chatwood – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

The bullpens for the D-Backs (5.35) and Cubs (5.22) have the third- and fourth-worst ERAs in baseball. So why the hell have we seen the first two games of this series go under? Wind, damnit! In each of the first two games, the wind was howling in from left field at about 15-17 mph on Friday and Saturday. We should have a different story today, though, with the winds getting out of left field at about 7-10 mph during the game.

Robbie Ray has excellent strikeout ability but did allow four or more walks in three of his four starts this season. The Cubs’ offense has brutal numbers lifetime against Ray, but this is a much different lefty than they’ve seen in the past.

Tyler Chatwood is absolutely terrible. While we shouldn’t see too much of him, this guy’s time on the mound can usually be quite efficient for opposing offenses. Chatwood never has good control and you almost guarantee that ducks will be on the pond all day for D-Backs’ hitters.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 * 

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-1, 3.86 ERA)
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (1-1, 5.87 ERA)

Mike Leake is allowing plenty of baserunners (at least seven in all of four starts), but he has done a fine job of limiting the damage, surrendering only two runs each in three of those four starts. Well, that luck may run out today, because Leake is facing an Angels’ roster that has a collective .354 batting average and .937 OPS against him.

Jaime Barria is a pitcher who I’ve had absolutely zero faith in since he made his MLB debut last season. He’s a soft-tossing righty that seems to get away with a ton of mistakes, and that’ll be a lot harder to do today against a potent Mariners offense. The Angels’ bullpen does have the fourth-best ERA (3.36) in the American League this season but the hope is that the Mariners tee off on Barria quite a bit before we see them.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 4 * 

[7:00 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Indians
ATL: Max Fried – L (2-0, 0.92 ERA)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-0, 1.71 ERA)

Max Fried and Shane Bieber have been two of the season’s most pleasant surprises, and now they’ll have the chance to go toe-to-toe against one another on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. It’s interesting that both guys actually made their season debuts out of the bullpen, but now they’re front and center doing big things for their respective team’s rotations.

With the two teams playing a doubleheader yesterday, look for each guy to collect their usual quality outing of at least six innings, and possibly even get an additional one to let the bullpen get some extra rest.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Atlanta Braves: 2 * 

MLB Betting Value Plays for Friday, April 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Plays

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (1-2, 7.98 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 1.93 ERA)

We talked about it the other day, but these Rays’ bullpens games have become a real burden on opposing offenses over the last couple of seasons. Ryne Stanek will “start” his fifth game of the season, second this week, but only go one or two innings before handing it off the bullpen with the fourth-best ERA (3.56) in the American League.

It will be interesting, though, to see how that Tampa Bay bullpen comes back one night after losing the finale of its three-game series against Baltimore. The Rays had a bullpen game on Thursday and wound up using six different relievers in the loss. Luckily, the Red Sox offense has been uncharacteristically stagnant this week, scoring a total of eight runs over the last four games.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Boston, and he’s coming off his best start of the season. The young lefty has been roughed up in two road starts to open the 2019 campaign, but everyone is well-aware that Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL in basically Fenway Park South. Not to mention, it’s an indoor environment that pitchers absolutely love.

The key here is the Implied Run Totals (IRT) for the two teams, which have both decreased by -0.3 each. When a decrease of that magnitude happens for both sides, it’s usually a great sign for the pitchers. It’s also worth noting that each of the last four Boston games has landed under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 – Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW: Carlos Rodon – L (2-2, 3.57 ERA)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann (0-2, 4.29 ERA)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight in Detroit, but the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at a whopping 19 mph during the game. I’ve got nothing but love for conditions like that and Vegas has already taken notice, jumping the IRT up for both teams (White Sox: +0.4, Tigers: +0.6) and the game total an entire run, from 7.5 to 8.5. All the trends we look for on a daily basis are right there for the taking, and we’ll do exactly that.

It also helps that the White Sox have hit Jordan Zimmermann very well of the course of time, with their current roster owning a collective .311 batting average and .896 OPS against him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+104)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-1, 4.86 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (1-0, 2.65 ERA)

I’m going with the upset here, even though Vegas doesn’t think that it’ll be much of one. Miami’s moneyline had an increase of +21 (+125 to +104) and Washington’s had a decrease of -23 (-135 to -112) – respectively, two of the highest shifts on tonight’s slate, in separate directions.

Caleb Smith takes the hill for the Marlins, and he has been outstanding this season against stiff NL East competition. The dazzling lefty owns a 0.88 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run at Marlins Park in 11 innings of work.

Miami hasn’t been winning a lot of games but tonight’s moneyline odds are the best it has seen all season. Usually, that’s a good sign of things to come. Not to mention, Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in all of MLB – more than about 1.5 runs worse than Baltimore. Yikes!

Fish for the upset!

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 4 – Washington Nationals: 1 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -140/-225 ML) at Texas Rangers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (2-0, 3.52 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.15 ERA)

Last, but certainly not least, Justin Verlander is up to his usual shtick. The veteran righty owns a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Tonight, Verlander faces a Rangers team whose current roster owns a collective .286 on-base percentage and 31.8% K-rate against him.

Drew Smyly goes for the Rangers, and he’ll have his hands full against a very heavy right-handed lineup that can rip the ball all over Globe Life Park – one of the best yards for hitters in all of MLB. The Astros just had their 10-game winning streak snapped, in which they had a run differential of +29 in that span, with five of those last six victories coming by more than one run. You do get some relief by taking them as favorites on the 1.5-run line, as opposed to laying -225 on the moneyline.

I’d look for Houston to get back on the good foot tonight, especially with the pitching matchup having such a wide gap of credibility.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 207 – Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of the night for NBA is the under on tonight’s game between the Celtics and Pacers. Neither team shot the ball well in Boston’s 84-74 victory in Game 1 on Sunday, and we’re probably going to see more of the same since both teams were solid on the defensive end during the regular season – Indiana ranked third in defensive efficiency while Boston was sixth.

This could also be a game that the Celtics simply run away with, leaving the Pacers in the dust. Indy did fine, in terms of scoring points without Victor Oladipo most the season, but the playoffs are a much different game – especially with Brad Stevens coaching a focused Boston team.

The 207 total that Vegas placed on this game seems to tell the story beforehand, just as the 210.5 total did in Game 1.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Under 214 – Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets

Well, the SK Trend Confidence isn’t liking too many points in the NBA tonight, as the highest grade of the slate belongs to the under in tonight’s game between the Jazz and Rockets. Game 1 of this series wasn’t even close, a 32-point Houston victory, but I wouldn’t expect the same to go down tonight. Utah is incredibly well-coached and plays a very stingy brand of defense. Look for them to make the necessary adjustments and give James Harden & Co. a tougher time than usual scoring the basketball.

Although Game 1 was a much different story, the Jazz did hold the Rockets under 100 points in three of the four regular-season meetings. The only game which Utah did not, Houston scored 102 points.

On a side note, I do think the Jazz cover the 6.5-point spread and possibly, even win outright.

MLB Value Bets

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -128)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-2, 3.32 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 2.16 ERA)

I’m a big fan of taking the Rays when it’s one of their patented “bullpen games.” Reason being, they can play their best hand in most individual matchups, whereas your typical starter could get knocked around for the first few innings. Ryne Stanek will typically go one or two innings and then hand it over to the bullpen that has the seventh-best ERA (3.53) in MLB. Not to mention, Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks in the top-five of most fancy analytic numbers that bore most people to death – not me.

After a slow start, the Rays’ offense now has at least eight runs in four of the last six games and that should play well against David Hess, who has allowed four homers and seven runs over his last 10 2/3 innings of work. If Hess can’t stay in the game long enough, Tampa Bay will have the benefit of facing Baltimore’s bullpen, which ranks dead-last for ERA (6.96) in the American League this season and second-worst in all of MLB.

The Rays’ -270 moneyline is a bit more than most people would be willing to lay, so going with the 1.5-run line lessens that quite a bit.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

 [7:20 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-1.5, +118)
ARZ: Zack Godley – R (1-1, 7.41 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-1, 2.84 ERA)

The Braves’ offense looks dialed in at the moment, with 44 runs in their last seven games. Tonight’s matchup against Zack Godley is a nice one, considering he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 17 innings of work. Atlanta’s -160 moneyline matches its second-highest of the season, thus illuminating how much of a great spot they’re in.

Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are a combined 11-for-26 (.423 avg.) lifetime against Godley. It’s also worth noting that Arizona’s bullpen has the second-worst ERA (6.04) in the National League and fourth-worst in all of MLB.

Kevin Gausman goes for the Braves, and while he didn’t have his best stuff in that last outing against the Mets, this is a guy that is capable of shutting any team down on a given night. I’ll place my faith in a talented pitcher more often than not and feel like he can at least do enough to keep the D-Backs down for most of the night.

Going with the +118 1.5-run line, you’re able to make a small profit, as opposed to shelling out more on the moneyline to earn less.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 9 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 4 *