Tag: MLB Bets

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 179-136-7 (56.8%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:07 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics (ML: -150)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (10-5, 3.88 ERA/1.54 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (9-3, 3.54 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the A’s-Cardinals game going on in Oakland. These two teams played each other back in late June, with the A’s taking both in St. Louis. We like the A’s to do so once again, considering they’ve got one of the highest grades in our system.

If you’re an A’s fan, you have to love the fact that your team has a shot to win whenever Mike Fiers is on the mound. It’s an absolutely fascinating stat, but Fiers has allowed three runs or fewer in all 17 of his starts since April 26 – the A’s are 11-6 in those starts. And it’s not like Fiers is doing this against bottom-of-the-barrel teams – he’s faced the Astros twice, Angels twice, Twins twice, Rays twice and Red Sox once over that span.

Tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals should make it 18 in a row with three runs or fewer allowed, considering they’ve scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. The A’s pitching, in general, has been solid over the last six games, holding the opposition to five runs or fewer in all of those.

Dakota Hudson had his worst outing of the month in that last game against the Astros, allowing eight hits (3 HR) and five runs over four innings. While the righty has been a solid ground-ball pitcher for most of the season, that control in the lower part of the strike zone just hasn’t been there lately. Hudson has now allowed 10 homers over his last 35 innings of work, and the A’s certainly have more than enough capable bats to add on to that.

All in all, Oakland has won four of its last five games – all of them coming at home. Look for that home-field advantage to play a part once again, and for Fiers to lead his club to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 5 – St. Louis Cardinals: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Friday, August 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 178-134-7 (57%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] New York Mets (ML: -115) at Pittsburgh Pirates
NYM: Steven Matz – L (6-6, 4.32 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (3-4, 4.87 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us in the form of the Mets, who have won seven straight games. They’ll be facing a Pirates team they just swept last weekend, so we’re looking for them to continue on that successful path.

Steven Matz has been simply magnificent since the All-Star break, allowing only a 0.95 WHIP and four runs over 19 innings of work. One of those great outings came against this same Pirates team in his last outing, as it only took him 99 pitches to throw a complete-game shutout. During this seven-game winning streak, the Mets team has allowed three runs or fewer in six of those contests.

The Pirates have been terrible against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting awful .242 weighted on-base average, .102 ISO (power metric) and 24% K-rate numbers.
Trevor Williams didn’t pitch bad at all in that last meeting against the Mets, but it was two homers that eventually did him in. It’s worth noting, though, those longballs have certainly given him trouble over the last few outings – Williams has now allowed 12 homers over his last six starts.

Since July 4, the Pirates have a dreadful 5-18 record and they’re losing games in just about every way imaginable. The Mets come into this game with everything clicking, from the offense to the pitching. Look for these trends to continue and the Mets to be victorious at the end of the night.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Mets: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Thursday, August 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 176-133-7 (57%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
TB: Brendan McKay – L (1-1, 3.72 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
BOS: Andrew Cashner – R (10-5, 4.18 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Rays-Red Sox game. We had the over in our three-game bundle pack last night, and we’ll be doing the same here once again.

Andrew Cashner has not lived up to the billing since donning the Red Sox uniform, allowing a total of 24 hits, five walks (1.64 WHIP) and 12 runs over 17 2/3 innings. Interestingly enough, all of those games came against AL East opponents (vs. TOR, @BAL, vs. NYY) and tonight’s matchup against the Rays will complete the divisional roundabout.

Things won’t get any easier, as Tampa Bay has scored 33 runs over its last four games, including a total of 14 in the first two games of this series in Boston.

Brendan McKay has truly been a mixed bag of outings, with two good starts and two that he’d probably like to forget about. Considering the Red Sox will be trying to avoid the sweep, you have to think they’ll put some runs on the board tonight, whether it’s a winning or losing effort.

After all, Boston is absolutely pounding left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with massive .406 weighted on-base average and .313 ISO (power metric) numbers. Last night, it was the lefty Ryan Yarbrough that the Red Sox teed off on more than any other Rays pitcher.

All in all, we’re looking for both offenses to take advantage of the starting pitchers early and lead us right into the total going over. Vegas does have an interesting take on this game, giving the Rays a +0.3 IRT increase while the Red Sox get a -0.4 decrease. Playing the human card here, you have to believe Boston puts some runs on the board, but we’ll get crazy and give Tampa Bay the win to complete the sweep.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Boston Red Sox: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, July 31

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 169-133-7 (56%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.
We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -124) at Miami Marlins
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (9-5, 2.94 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-9, 4.18 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from Miami, where the Marlins will host the Twins. The play here is taking Minnesota to cover the 1.5-run line, considering the massive mismatch in starting pitchers we’ll see tonight.

Jose Berrios typically dominates teams that use a designated hitter. Now, he’ll be facing the worst offense in MLB against right-handed pitching, and there’s no DH to worry about. Over the last 21 days, Miami has dreadful .242 weighted on-base average, .151 ISO (power metric) and 31.7% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching.

Berrios has faced some stiff competition (OAK x2, CLE x2, BOS) over the last few months, and he still hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing since May 18 against the Mariners – the Twins still won that game 18-4.

Sandy Alcantara will have his hands full against one of the best offenses in baseball, and it’s not looking like things will be getting any better once this game starts. The righty has allowed four runs or more in three of the last five starts and seven homers over that span – 28 2/3 innings.

The Twins advanced metrics aren’t as strong as they were earlier in the season, but they have scored at least six runs in seven of the last nine games. Can’t argue with those numbers!

All in all, we’re looking for Berrios to completely dominate the Marlins while the Twins offense gives him some breathing room early.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 8 – Miami Marlins: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, July 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 165-133-7 (55.4%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:07 p.m. EST] Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics (ML: -120)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (4-4, 4.19 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
OAK: Chris Bassitt – R (7-5, 4.09 ERA/1.20 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Brewers-A’s game, with the home team winning having one of the most likely outcomes in our system. Oakland a solid 41-22 record since May 16 (tied for best in MLB) and a 24-11 record since June 17.

With Milwaukee’s pitching mired in injury shambles, they’ll send Adrian Houser to the mound tonight, and that has been a good thing for opposing offenses. While Houser has done decent work out of the bullpen, his last four starts have not gone well, allowing 25 hits, eight walks and 15 runs over a span of 17 innings in those outings.

Not to mention, right behind Houser, we’re looking at a Brewers bullpen that has the eighth-highest ERA (5.10) in all of MLB since the All-Star break.

Chris Bassitt had a tough time against the Astros last time out, but he’s been slightly better pitching at home this season – 4-3, 3.51 ERA compared to 3-3, 4.53 ERA on the road. No one will ever confuse Bassitt for being one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s done a fine job of limiting opposing offenses and not letting games get out of hand.

The temperatures are expected to be in the upper-50s for tonight’s game, and that should neutralize a lot of Milwaukee’s power. In fact, some of Bassitt’s best performances this season came when the weather wasn’t brutally hot. Look for him to have a great night, and the A’s offense to add in sparingly throughout the game.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 6 – Milwaukee Brewers: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, July 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 163-132-7 (55.3%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 – Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
TOR: Thomas Pannone – L (2-4, 6.39 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-9, 3.95 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Blue Jays-Royals matchup. Our system is liking the under in this game, giving it a B+ grade and the fourth most-likely outcome on tonight’s slate. Vegas already put its stamp on the game by lowering the total from 10.0 to 9.5, with both teams’ IRTs (implied run totals) dropping as well – Blue Jays: -0.3, Royals: -0.2.

Brad Keller has just been a different guy when he gets to sleep in his own bed. His 4-3 record and 3.29 ERA/1.13 WHIP/.204 opposing batting average at Kauffman Stadium are much better than the 3-6 record and 4.39 ERA/1.51 WHIP/.272 opposing batting average on the road.

Looking at the Blue Jays numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, we’ve got even more reason to be optimistic about Keller tonight. Toronto owns a .295 weighted on-base average, .140 ISO and 26% K-rate against righties in that span.

We’re not looking for Thomas Pannone to be perfect, by any means. His last two starts were against a scorching-hot Red Sox lineup, and Pannone allowed four runs in each of those outings. Most of Pannone’s appearances have come from the bullpen during his MLB career, so this new role of becoming a starter could take some getting used to.

A big thing working in Pannone’s favor tonight is that the Royals are striking out at a massive 28.2% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

All in all, we’re looking for Keller and his glorious numbers at home to carry us to the under in this one. The SpreadKnowledge system also has a strong B-grade on the Royals tonight, so obviously, we’ll take them here to win too.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, July 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 161-131-7 (55.1%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 10 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: Domingo German – R (12-2, 4.03 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5-9, 4.00 ERA/1.08 WHIP)

It’s a special treat for the SpreadKnowledge supporters, as tonight’s free pick comes to us from Sunday Night Baseball. We’ve seen these two teams slug it out against one another plenty of times lately, but this game is going to be quite different with two talented pitchers on the mound.

Vegas has put its stamp on the game by dropping the game total from 10.5 to 10.0, with both teams – Yankees: -0.4, Red Sox: -0.2 – having decreased IRTs (implied run totals) as well.

The Red Sox will be looking to complete the four-game sweep of the Yankees, and their opportunity is as good as any with Chris Sale on the mound. While it was a tough start to the season for the lanky lefty, he has been virtually unhittable over these last two starts, allowing only six hits and two runs over a span of 12 innings while striking out 22 batters.

While Sale hasn’t been great against the Yankees this season, he should have a much easier time tonight with Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Brett Gardner on the injured list – DJ LeMahieu could be out as well. It’s always an easy cop-out to say anyone “is due,” but with the Red Sox closing in on a four-game sweep and getting themselves back into the thick of the playoff picture, I’d expect Sale to be on top of his game.

Domingo German will be tasked with shutting down the hottest offense in baseball this week, and while I don’t think he can do it fully, he can minimize the damage. One constant from German is his ability to bounce back from a bad outing, and the Yankees will certainly need it, considering how bad their bullpen needs a break.

New York’s starting pitching has been getting absolutely teed off on over the last few games. That motivation of German correcting his own wrongs and giving the bullpen a breather could prove to be beneficial.

All in all, though, there’s too much firepower running hot in this Red Sox lineup and that’ll ultimately give them the edge at some point in this game. Look for Sale to shut down the Yanks, and lead us right into the total going under.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 6 – New York Yankees: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Saturday, July 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 160-129-7 (55.4%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 12 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (5-5, 5.40 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (12-4, 4.10 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game by raising the total from 11.0 to 12.0, with both teams – Red Sox: +0.7, Yankees: +0.3 – getting significant IRT (implied run total) increases.

The Red Sox (611) and Yankees (596) are actually the two highest-scoring teams in MLB this season, and it’s no surprise they’ve been most of this mashing against each other. In the last five meetings between the teams, they’ve combined for totals of 13, 30, 20, 22 and 15.

It looks like that old age is finally starting to catch up to CC Sabathia, and that regression has reared its head in an ugly way. The veteran lefty has now allowed seven homers over his last 17 innings of work while allowing a total of 13 runs (12 ER) over that span.

Also looking grim for Sabathia is the current state of this Red Sox offense, which owns a .377 weighted on-base average and .291 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Good luck with all that, CC.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a fine pitcher, but there are more than enough capable Yankees bats that can make life difficult on him today. New York, like Boston, is hitting left-handed pitching well over the last 21 days, as evidenced by its .337 weighted on-base average and .247 ISO. E-Rod had the benefit of facing a couple of lesser teams during his recent run of good outings, but today will certainly have more difficulty attached to it.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to do some serious damage once again. 10 of the last 14 Red Sox games have gone over the total, while the last eight Yankees games have seen one of the teams score eight runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 10 – New York Yankees: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Friday, July 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 158-128-7 (55.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:10 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (ML: -104) at Milwaukee Brewers
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (7-8, 3.41 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (2-1, 3.60 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Tonight’s free pick is the Cubs winning outright over the Brewers. The SpreadKnowledge system has a B+ grade for Chicago in this meeting and a lot of that has to do with its starting pitcher on the mound.

Kyle Hendricks has done a fine job against this Brewers team over his career, posting an 8-6 record in 20 career starts to go along with a 3.22 ERA/1.13 WHIP. The methodical righty has only allowed nine extra-base hits (7 doubles, 2 HR) in 172 plate appearances to the current Milwaukee roster. Hendricks has looked sharp since coming off the injured list, especially in his last two outings – both of which were quality starts. It’s also worth mentioning, Hendricks has only allowed four hits and two runs in each of his last four starts — all in the month of July.

Gio Gonzalez was shut down for a bit at the end of May with arm fatigue, but he was able to come back and make one start before tonight’s appearance. It wasn’t the greatest outing (4 IP, 5 H/2 BB, 3 ER) against the D-Backs, but they are one of the better teams against left-handed pitching. It’s not like the Cubs are a slouch either, though. There are plenty of right-handed bats in this lineup like Kris Bryant, Javy Baez and Willson Contreras that can make life difficult on Gonzalez. Not to mention, Anthony Rizzo is one of the best left-on-left hitters in all of baseball.

This game will likely have plenty of bullpen pitching in it. However, if the Cubs do indeed get off to an early lead like we think they will, it shouldn’t matter too much, considering the Brewers have the edge there. Nonetheless, we’ll join the rest of Chicago and fly that gorgeous flag.

Cubbies win!

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 4 – Milwaukee Brewers: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Thursday, July 25

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 157-126-7 (55.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: -130)
BAL: Jimmy Yacabonis – R (1-2, 6.95 ERA/1.69 WHIP)
LAA: Jose Suarez – L (2-1, 5.51 ERA/1.56 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from LA-LA Land, as the Angels host the Orioles. We have a B+ grade on this one, so it still comes in as one of our better plays on tonight’s slate.

The Angels have been solid since the break, posting a 9-3 record over that span, including two road wins in each of the last two nights against the cross-town rival Dodgers. Tonight’s opponent is a much easier one to handle, considering they own MLB’s worst record at 32-69.

Jimmy Yacabonis will get the ball for the Orioles, and he’ll have quite the difficult task ahead of him tonight. After getting roped for eight hits and seven runs while only recording one out in his last appearance, Yacabonis will not face an Angels team that has a .340 weighted on-base average and .236 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

We don’t see any way that Yacabonis makes it out of this start alive, so expect to see plenty of those Los Angeles cleats touching home plate tonight.

Jose Suarez will be the latest Angels pitcher to chip in some innings. Ever since the death of Tyler Skaggs and the release of Matt Harvey this team is looking in odd places to figure out their pitching. Suarez hasn’t pitched many innings in each of his seven starts, but he has held teams to three runs or fewer in six of those outings.

It does help Suarez’s case that the Orioles have a well-below average .301 weighted on-base average and 28.5% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Perhaps, we could see the lefty have his best outing of the season – and hopefully, eat up some innings to spell the Angels bullpen a bit.

All in all, we’ll look for the Los Angeles offense to lead the way in this one, but don’t count out Suarez here either.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 3