Tag: Los Angeles Angels

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Saturday, August 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 217-164-10 (56.9%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the link above. We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system.

Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

 

[7:10 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Angels (ML: +180) at Houston Astros
LAA: Dillon Peters – L (3-1, 3.92 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (12-4, 3.18 ERA/1.20 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Angels-Astros game. We’re taking the Angels as a massive underdog here, considering they’ve been given a +0.6 IRT (implied run total) increase while Astros have been given a -0.1 decrease.

Wade Miley takes the ball for Houston, and he’s been getting absolutely ripped over his last two starts – in a span of nine innings, the lefty has allowed 19 hits and 10 runs (six earned), and this came against the Tigers and White Sox. The IRT increase we discussed at the top certainly has a lot to do with that.

Dillon Peters has done most of his best work since getting back into the starting rotation. That last outing against Texas didn’t go according to plan, but he did have three straight quality starts – two of them coming against solid offenses like Boston and Cleveland.

When looking at the Astros over the last few weeks, they haven’t played their best ball – and some of that came against cellar-dwellers like the Orioles and Tigers. As we come down the homestretch of the season, we’ve already seen some of these top teams take it easy since they know they’ve got huge leads in the division and easy paths to the playoffs.

There will be nights when these teams simply mail it in, and that’s what Vegas is expecting from the Astros. Look for the Angels to pull the upset win, and bettors of theirs to make a nice profit in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Houston Astros: 4

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Thursday, July 25

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 157-126-7 (55.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: -130)
BAL: Jimmy Yacabonis – R (1-2, 6.95 ERA/1.69 WHIP)
LAA: Jose Suarez – L (2-1, 5.51 ERA/1.56 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from LA-LA Land, as the Angels host the Orioles. We have a B+ grade on this one, so it still comes in as one of our better plays on tonight’s slate.

The Angels have been solid since the break, posting a 9-3 record over that span, including two road wins in each of the last two nights against the cross-town rival Dodgers. Tonight’s opponent is a much easier one to handle, considering they own MLB’s worst record at 32-69.

Jimmy Yacabonis will get the ball for the Orioles, and he’ll have quite the difficult task ahead of him tonight. After getting roped for eight hits and seven runs while only recording one out in his last appearance, Yacabonis will not face an Angels team that has a .340 weighted on-base average and .236 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

We don’t see any way that Yacabonis makes it out of this start alive, so expect to see plenty of those Los Angeles cleats touching home plate tonight.

Jose Suarez will be the latest Angels pitcher to chip in some innings. Ever since the death of Tyler Skaggs and the release of Matt Harvey this team is looking in odd places to figure out their pitching. Suarez hasn’t pitched many innings in each of his seven starts, but he has held teams to three runs or fewer in six of those outings.

It does help Suarez’s case that the Orioles have a well-below average .301 weighted on-base average and 28.5% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Perhaps, we could see the lefty have his best outing of the season – and hopefully, eat up some innings to spell the Angels bullpen a bit.

All in all, we’ll look for the Los Angeles offense to lead the way in this one, but don’t count out Suarez here either.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 148-122-7 (54.8%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -114)
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (1-1, 5.73 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
TB: Blake Snell – L (5-7, 4.55 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

Enough is enough already for the Rays, who have lost five straight games, including the first two of this series against the White Sox. Tampa Bay had a great shot to win yesterday, but it was not meant to be as Chicago engineered a late comeback.

I find it very difficult to believe the visitors will come in here and sweep this series, considering the matchup on the mound today. That’s why we’re rolling with the Rays on the 1.5-run line at -116, as opposed to the massive -270 number on the moneyline.

After a few rough outings, Blake Snell has gotten back on the good foot. The electric lefty has now allowed a total of four runs over his last three starts, with two of them coming against the vaunted Yankees. It does speak for volumes today for the optimism of Snell, considering the White Sox have the lowest implied run total (3.0) of any team on today’s schedule.

Over the last 21 days, the White Sox have an anemic .306 xwOBA (quality of contact) against left-handed pitching. Look for this lineup to struggle once again versus Snell – the current roster owns a massive 39.4% K-rate in 71 combined plate appearances.

Dylan Cease has only made two career MLB starts and the latest one didn’t go so well, allowing eight hits and six runs (four earned) over six innings. Despite the Rays’ recent offensive woes (against a good majority of quality starting pitchers), this is a great spot for them to get back in the win column. Tampa Bay owns the eighth-best wRC+ (108) in baseball against right-handed pitching and they should be able to manufacture some runs against the youngster.

All in all, this is a spot where a team lets their ace go out and do their thing in order to stop a losing streak and avoid the sweep. Look for Snell to have a huge day on the mound and the Rays to get to Cease early.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2

 [4:10 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Angels (ML: -170/1.5-run line: +110) at Seattle Mariners
LAA: Dillon Peters – L (1-0, 4.15 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (4-6, 5.01 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has all the California love today – cue Dr. Dre and Tupac music. In fact, the Angels moneyline (-170) and 1.5-run line (+110) are the second- and third-most likely outcomes in the SK system for the entire day. We’ll play it safe on the moneyline, but just know that the 1.5-run line is certainly there for the taking as well.

Look no further at the reasoning than to Yusei Kikuchi, who has gotten absolutely blasted by Los Angeles this season. Get ready for this one – in four starts against the Halos this season, Kikuchi has allowed 31 hits, 11 walks, 20 runs (19 earned) and six homers over 15 2/3 innings of work. Wow, wow and wow! Seattle has struggled to win ball games when Kikuchi is on the mound, with a 1-8 record over his last nine starts.

We saw the Mariners’ defense cost them last night’s game on an absolutely horrific error on an infield pop-up with two outs in the ninth inning – the Mariners proceeded to give up four runs after that mishap. I have no idea how they pick themselves up off the floor after losing a game in heartbreaking fashion, especially when this team has already had their spirits broken many of times lately.

Dillon Peters will be recalled from Triple-A to make today’s start. He hasn’t done a lot of great things at the MLB level, but it’s not like the Mariners have been consistently putting up big numbers either. Despite Friday’s 10-run outburst, Seattle has scored three runs or fewer in six of its last seven.

Once again, I feel like last night’s loss will have the Mariners in a world of hurt and that they won’t be able to rid. Look for the Halos to take advantage early and often.

The Angels are a whopping 23-5 over the last two seasons when being favored on the road by -125 to -175, while the Mariners are 12-37 versus teams with a winning record this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 13 – Seattle Mariners: 2

[4:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -152)
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (4-0, 1.59 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (8-1, 3.44 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Dodgers moneyline (-280) as the most likely outcome of the entire day, while the 1.5-run line isn’t too far behind. In order to keep things civil, we’ll take the Dodgers on the 1.5-run line and save nearly $170 to lay, in order to win $100.

Walker Buehler has had a couple of funky outings recently, but we really don’t see that being the case today. After all, he’s taking on a Marlins team that either dead-last or bottom-three against most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at the Marlins recent games, only one starting pitcher has allowed more than two runs against them over the last seven contests.
Buehler has been particularly good at home, posting a 3-0 record and 3.16 ERA in eight starts there this season.

Here’s where things get interesting. Jordan Yamamoto has actually been a great find by the Marlins in the Christian Yelich trade. The rookie righty is 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in six starts this season, but this will certainly be his toughest test of the season.

It was a bit peculiar to see the game total increased from 8.0 to 8.5 and the IRTs (implied run totals) – Dodgers: +0.4, Marlins: +0.2 – do the same. To me, that’s a big knock on Yamamoto, considering we all know damn well those increases aren’t speaking to Buehler.

There’s a scenario where this game could come down to the bullpens, and if that’s the case, you have to like the Dodgers chances even more.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – Miami Marlins: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, July 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 146-119-6 (55.1%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
COL: Kyle Freeland – L (2-6, 7.39 ERA/1.61 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (7-5, 4.93 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The Yankees’ 7.0 IRT (implied run total) is tops on tonight’s slate, and both teams were actually given a +0.3 increase, which usually means good things for the offense. Not to mention, the humid temperatures in New York tonight will give it a feel of 100 degrees – then again, it really will be hot. These hot temperatures are excellent for ball flight, and we should definitely see plenty of homers in this game.

Kyle Freeland is having a disastrous 2019 and things have gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. The lefty has allowed at least five runs in six of his last eight starts, including each of the last three.

In the series prior to this one, the Yankees had battled hard with a tough Rays team. Now, facing the Rockies, things should open up a lot more in terms of the scoring. After all, Colorado has allowed at least eight runs in five of its last six games.

J.A. Happ has been much worse at home this season, posting a 5.98 ERA and opposing batting average of .294 in 10 starts. In comparison, the lefty has a 3.77 ERA and opposing batting average of .224 on the road. Part of the reason for this problem is that Happ is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and that certainly doesn’t play well in such a small ballpark like Yankee Stadium – especially with the weather conditions we’ll see tonight.

While the Rockies were stymied by Giants pitching before heading to New York, it should do them some good to get out on the road. Typically, when teams are in a big funk, it’s always good to get a change of scenery to shake things up. Look for some of these big boppers like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story to have a big night in The Bronx.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (5-10, 3.25 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-6, 7.01 ERA/1.59 WHIP)

Marcus Stroman doesn’t like Canada. OK, maybe that’s a little strong, but his 2.98 ERA on the road this season certainly paints a nice picture for the Blue Jays. Not to mention, he did skill the Tigers for seven innings of shutout ball while allowing only two hits earlier this season. Overall, the current Detroit roster is hitting a combined .140 with a .222 on-base percentage in 63 career plate appearances against Stroman.

The Tigers’ offense ranks dead-last in MLB for weighted on-base average (.284) against right-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, they have only scored five runs over the last three games. We can add almost any stat in the book here to show how bad Detroit has been offensively, but it has gone through enough woes this season already.

Jordan Zimmermann has certainly struggled this season, but his best performance of the season did come against the Blue Jays. The veteran righty allowed one hit, no walks and no runs over seven innings back on March 28. Given Zimmermann’s struggles of late, I’m not expecting a performance like that one, but one that keeps the total down on this game.

The Blue Jays have played a very difficult schedule since the All-Star break, with road matchups against the Yankees and Red Sox, but have certainly held their own. Now that they get to play a lesser opponent like the Tigers, they should have a much easier time and get the win in the process.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going under is our strongest play on the entire slate. After all, all four of the meetings between the teams earlier this season saw the total go under. We’ve also got plenty of love for the Blue Jays with Stroman in a road start.

* Final Score Prediction * Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (3-2, 5.22 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (7-8, 4.60 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

There are certain matchups you see sometimes that make you go “Oh… my… goodness!!!” The Angels facing Mike Leake is certainly one of them, and that’s part of the reason the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going over as one of our strongest plays on the night.

Nine of the 14 meetings between the two teams this season have done just that.

The current Angels roster is hitting a combined .368 off Leake with a .413 on-base percentage and 1.019 OPS in 281 plate appearances. In three starts against Los Angeles this season, Leake has allowed 19 hits, 13 runs (10 earned) and six homers over 13 2/3 innings. When the two teams faced last Friday night, the Angels tagged him for eight hits and seven runs (four earned) before the first inning was over.

It’s unclear whether Jaime Barria will start the game or come in shortly after a reliever pitches the first innings. He has started the game in each of his last two outings for the Angels, but it’s a been a mixed bag overall in how the righty has been used this season. Nonetheless, I’ve never been a big fan of Barria, and he’s certainly capable of getting lit up tonight. Barria’s 10.03 ERA and 2.14 WHIP on the road this season do bode well for us getting over the 10-run total tonight, though.

The Mariners have been struggling as a team, but they did have an off-day yesterday and that could give them a nice recharging of the batteries. I don’t think anything will help their pitching at this point, but this offense still has some decent pieces looking to make a name for themselves before the trade deadline.

All in all, the Angels are in a good place offensively and absolutely crushed Mariners pitching in all three games last weekend. Look for them to do more of that against a pitcher they’ve seen well over the course of time. Barria could certainly contribute some effectiveness to the over here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 137-110-6 (55.5%) *

[2:20 p.m. EST] Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (ML: -170)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (3-2, 4.54 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (6-7, 4.19 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

The Cubs will look to complete the sweep over the Pirates today, and if history is any indication, they should be able to do just that.

We’ve talked about BvP (batter vs. pitcher) a couple of times in this space, and everyone has their own opinion on it. I believe in it, and it should help the Cubbies in today’s game.

Trevor Williams got off to an amazing start this season, but it’s been anything but pretty of late. Since returning from the IL, the righty has allowed a total of 26 hits, 18 runs and five homers over 17 1/3 innings in three starts.

Williams’ last start was against this same Cubs team, as he allowed nine hits, three walks and five runs over 5 2/3 innings. In fact, Chicago has done quite well against him in recent history – especially the combo of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber. Look for these guys to be the catalyst in the Cubbies flying the W flag later today.

Jose Quintana has been simply magnificent against the Pirates this season, allowing only 10 hits, two walks and three runs over 14 innings while striking out 17 batters. The current Pittsburgh roster hasn’t given JQ much trouble over his career, as they own a collective .260 on-base percentage against him in 128 career plate appearances.

All in all, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions out of the All-Star break. And it’s nice to have history on our side here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 3

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (4-6, 4.94 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
LAA: Jose Suarez – L (2-1, 5.40 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

Nine of the last 13 games between the teams have gone over the total, including each of the first two in this series. Look for more of the same, as the SK system has an A-grade on the over for today’s matchup, the highest of any on the entire schedule. The SK system also loves the Angels on the moneyline and/or the 1.5-run line, but our priority is on the over today.

Yusei Kikuchi has been getting beat up with great regularity, especially against the Angels. In fact, the Los Angeles offense has registered 29 hits (.475 batting average), seven walks, 17 runs (16 earned) and five homers against him in a total of 11 2/3 innings this season.

The Angels’ offense is absolutely clicking on all cylinders, with a total of 32 runs over their last three games. While the bats are rolling, it’s a nice combination to be facing a Mariners’ bullpen, which owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball – and it’s gotten even worse since arriving in Anaheim.

Jose Suarez takes the ball for the Angels and he’s been allowing tons of baserunners. Suarez faced the Mariners in his MLB debut back on June 9, allowing four hits, two walks and two runs over 4 2/3 innings. We can probably expect more of the same from him today, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing for the over. Suarez has only maxed out 5 2/3 innings, and the Angels’ bullpen has fallen off dramatically after such a great start.

The Mariners’ defense always comes into play when betting the over in their games. Seattle has committed 95 errors, which is 25 more than any other team in MLB. These errors give opposing offenses more opportunities to put runs on the board, and they have certainly taken advantage of that.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 4

[4:07 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (4-8, 6.34 ERA/1.58 WHIP)
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (9-5, 3.86 ERA/1.30 WHIP)

Reynaldo Lopez isn’t usually a guy we go to when trying to get the total to go under, but today is a new day, my friends. In fact, Lopez has actually done quite well away from Guaranteed Rate Field in each of his last three road starts, the last two coming against quality opponents – Red Sox and Rangers. The righty three runs or fewer in each of those last three road starts.

Vegas has something up its sleeve for this game, giving the A’s IRT (implied run total) a noticeable -0.4 downshift from their initial 6.0 number. Part of the reason could be the weather, which isn’t very typical for July baseball. Temperatures should be in the upper-60s/low-70s, and that’s not good for ball flight. Some of those fly balls that Lopez gives up will likely fall just shy of the wall.

On the other side, Brett Anderson will be going for the A’s. He’s never been a flashy strikeout-pitcher, rather getting it done by spotting the baseball and inducing opposing offenses into ground-ball outs. In fact, Anderson has gotten at least eight ground-ball outs in each of his last nine starts, and a double-digit total in six of them.

Over the last 14 days, both teams’ bullpens have been quite effective. Especially the A’s, whose pen owns a 2.30 ERA over that span – fourth-best in baseball.

All in all, we’re probably looking at a very boring game today and that’s exactly what we want for this bet. The SK system has a B+ grade on this game, ranking just behind the level of confidence we have in the over on the Angels-Mariners game.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 4 – Chicago White Sox: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, July 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 133-110-5 (54.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Miami Marlins (ML: -110)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-4, 3.77 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (4-4, 3.50 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

Caleb Smith hasn’t been at his best over the last few starts, but there are a couple of things attributing to that. For starters, he did land on the DL for a month with inflammation in his left hip – that would explain Smith going from utterly dominant to so-so mediocre. The other, is that he faced stiff competition – Braves, Brewers, Nationals and Padres – in each of his last four starts, all on the road… and all solid against left-handed pitching.

In fact, Smith hasn’t pitched a home game since May 15, and he’s been much better at Marlins Park with a 3-1 record and 1.84 ERA/0.89 WHIP. The young lefty has done quite well against the Mets over the course of his brief career, going 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts, including 23 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings.

On the other side, it’s the Mets. Oh, dear…

Jason Vargas has surprisingly been one of the team’s best pitchers, but the Vegas odds have already spoken. Until tonight, the Marlins have never been favored been against the Mets in 2019. Oddly enough, this is only the fifth time all season that the Marlins have been favored in a game.

Vargas allowed a season-high eight hits against Miami back on April 2 – his first start of the 2019 campaign. We’re not going to push all of our chips in the middle of the table based on that performance alone, but the Marlins have been a pesky bunch since the start of June. It’s a very underrated factor, but Miami has two veteran hitters in Starlin Castro and Curtis Granderson that have done very well against Vargas (combined 13-for-30, 6 2B, 1 HR), and those guys can certainly relay their intel to the rest of the club.

Unfortunately, the Marlins’ record and stats look feeble over that span because they’ve done nothing but face the class of the NL East (Braves, Nationals and Phillies) and most of the aces from those teams. Miami has held its own, though, and there’s certainly some motivation to try and get some wins against New York, who is the only team that is worse than them in the NL.

Last, but certainly not least, the Mets’ bullpen is notoriously known for being putrid. Cover your ears, Mets’ fans: the bullpen has the same number of blown saves this season that they do ACTUAL SAVES! Surprisingly, the only other team that can say that is the defending champion Red Sox.

Let’s take The Fish with favorable odds, an underrated starting pitching mismatch, and yeah… the Mets’ bullpen is always fun to pick on.

* Final Score Prediction * Miami Marlins: 4 – New York Mets: 2

[10:07 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (ML: -154)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (7-7, 4.32 ERA/1.24 WHIP)
LAA: Taylor Cole – R (0-1, 4.32/1.58 WHIP)

Some people look at BvP (batter vs. pitcher) and think it’s a total sham – you could make the argument in a small sample size. However, when looking at a range of 281 plate appearances, there really shouldn’t be any confusion at all.

The current Angels’ roster is absolutely smacking Mike Leake around the ballpark for a combined .341 batting average, .389 on-base percentage and .948 OPS. Granted, Jonathan Lucroy and his .396 batting average will be out of the lineup for tonight (and the near future), but guys like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons should do just fine without him. Leake won’t have to face Lucroy, but the aging righty still has to deal with the fact that he’s 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA on the road in 2019.

In 13 innings against the Angels this season, Leake has also allowed five homers. I think it’s safe to say someone has somebody’s number.

Not to get all philosophical, but this will be the first time the Angels play at home since the death of their fallen teammate, Tyler Skaggs. I really do think the Angels are going to make a nice run in his honor, and if that holds true, tonight is where it all begins.

Mariners’ pitching has been downright awful in 2019, whether it’s the starters, or their bullpen, which has allowed the fourth-worst ERA (5.03) and fourth-most homers (64) in all of MLB this season.

Taylor Cole will be the “opener” for Los Angeles tonight, and he should do just fine in limited work. He will, however, give way to the Angels’ bullpen which has allowed the most homers (25) in MLB over the last 30 days.

The Mariners’ roster has been depleted and will probably continue to have that same fate until the end of July, but these guys are a scrappy bunch that’ll put runs on the board no matter what. Of course, they have to, with the way the pitching has been this season.

Not to mention, no other defense in MLB has committed more errors (92) than the Mariners, and that gives the opposing offense more than enough chances to capitalize on scoring more run. To put that into perspective, the Orioles have the second-most errors in the league… with 68. Yikes!

All in all, the SK system likes the Angels to win this game, but the total going over 10 runs is our best bet of the night.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 5

[10:07 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics (ML: -179)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (4-7, 5.58 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (8-3, 3.87 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

Ivan Nova might’ve had a solid outing heading into the All-Star break, but let’s not act like all of his wounds have been healed. In fact, his two best outings since June 1 have been against the same Cubs team, while the Twins, Rangers, Yankees and Royals all roughed him up. The veteran righty is allowing a massive 5.58 ERA/1.53 WHIP and an opposing batting average of .318 this season, in addition to 19 homers over the last 78 1/3 innings of work.

Prior to the All-Star break, the A’s owned the ninth-best ISO rating (.187) in MLB against right-handed pitching. Now that guys like Khris Davis and Matt Olson are fully healthy, this is a deadly lineup with its chest puffed out. The 9-3 record that Oakland carried into the second half of the season should be a solid boost of momentum going forward.

The A’s opening IRT (implied run total) of 5.5 is one of the highest on tonight’s slate, and that says a lot about Nova’s impending meltdown, considering this is one of the worst hitting parks in MLB.

Perhaps the best part of betting the A’s tonight is their stud on the mound, Mike Fiers. In each of his last nine outings, the crafty right-hander has notched a quality start — over his last four outings, he’s allowed exactly one earned run each time out. Oakland has won seven of those nine contests, with the two losses (both by one run) coming against powerhouses Houston and Minnesota.

Fiers won’t be getting it done via the strikeout, but it’s important to note that his Statcast data is a better place than it’s ever been over his career.

When looking at the two bullpens in this game, the A’s clearly have the advantage here. Oakland’s pen is the only team in MLB allowing a HR/9 under 1.00 this season and its 3.91 ERA ranks seventh-best.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-88-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: -150) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (6-4, 5.00 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
BAL: Luis Ortiz – R (season debut)

OK, here we go. It’s time for the defending champs to officially get back on track. The Red Sox are 15-2 in their last 17 trips to Camden Yards, so this could very well be the cure for them. Vegas believes so, as the Red Sox IRT has increased significantly by +0.8 and the Orioles’ IRT has decreased by -0.3.

We’ve got solid trends for Boston and its starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. The Red Sox are an incredible 17-2 in his starts against teams with a losing record, and the team also has an excellent 14-4 mark in E-Rod’s road starts over the last two seasons. Not to mention, he’s 4-0 against Baltimore in his last four meetings, allowing two runs or fewer in all of them.

While the lefty’s traditional numbers don’t look great, he is the unfortunate victim of bad luck. The Statcast suggests that positive regression is coming around in E-Rod’s favor, as opposing hitters aren’t barreling the ball up with great frequency – a lot of soft-contact hits are finding their way to open spots on the field.

The Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most earned runs (175) and second-most homers (52) this season, and they’ll likely be needed after Luis Ortiz is done. Ortiz doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it isn’t pretty. In fact, his numbers down in Triple-A are even worse, carrying a 2-6 record with a 7.01 ERA/1.63 WHIP and 14 homers allowed in 52 2/3 innings.

If the Red Sox don’t get busy in this matchup, they all need to take ice baths or participate in some sort of cruel punishment.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7 (+104) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Andrew Heaney – L (0-1, 5.40 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
TB: Blake Snell – L (4-5, 3.50 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

For the second night in a row, we’ll have dueling southpaws going head-to-head at Tropicana Field. Both guys have electric swing-and-miss stuff, and that’s probably why we’ve seen drastic IRT decreases for the Angels (-0.4) and Rays (-0.7), while the game total went from 8.0 to 7.0.

Blake Snell takes the mound for Rays at home, and he looked great against the Red Sox, even after getting into some early trouble at Fenway Park. The Angels do have solid metrics against left-handed pitching, but you can throw all of that out the window when a guy like Snell is pitching. In fact, Snell has faced this Angels team before and notched a quality start in each outing while striking out 15 batters over 12 2/3 innings. Most of the guys that got the big hits in those games are injured anyways, and Snell has done a job of neutralizing the big boppers in this lineup, albeit in limited plate appearances.

Andrew Heaney allowed five runs in his last start, but it was the second time the Mariners saw him in six days – offenses typically get the advantage in those scenarios. Even with that performance, Heaney has a ridiculous 19.4 swinging-strike rate and has struck out 28 of the 67 batters (41.8% K-rate) he’s faced this season.

Oh yeah, and the team with the worst K-rate in baseball? You guessed it – the Rays.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -116)
KC: Brad Keller – R (3-8, 4.29 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
MIN: Kyle Gibson – R (6-3, 4.14 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas is already giving the Twins some love early on with increases to their IRT (+0.7) and moneyline (-180 to -230). And for good reason, as there a few trends heading directly in their favor:

Minnesota is 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season, while KC is 28-80 against teams with a winning record over the last two seasons. Also, the Twins are 36-16 in games this season where the opposing starter is right-handed, while the Royals are 16-33 in that same scenario.

The Twins lead MLB in numerous advanced-metric categories against right-handed pitching and have done so throughout the entire season. Over the last 21 days, they own a massive .360 wOBA and .276 ISO against righties.

On the flip side, KC has been just the opposite over the last 21 days with a .287 wOBA and .138 ISO to go along with a 25% K-rate. The Royals have also scored three runs or fewer in 11 of their last 16 games.

Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson is a perfect 3-0 at home with a 3.24 ERA and .205 opposing batting average in four starts at Target Field this season.

All in all, the Twins are just the better team here and the Royals have lost eight of the last nine games that Brad Keller has started – seven of those eight losses came by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 11 – Kansas City Royals: 4 * 

NBA Finals & MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-85-4 (55%) *

NBA Finals – Game 6:
Under 211.5 (-110) – Toronto Raptors (+2.5, -110/ML: +124) at Golden State Warriors

Game 5 was a cruel twist of everyone’s emotions. The Warriors led nearly the entire game, but that was followed by a Raptors run that gave them a 103-97 advantage with about five minutes to go. Then, just as they’ve done so many times in the past, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson engineered a meticulous 3-point shooting exhibition and took the lead late to come away with the 106-105 victory.

Let’s be honest – Toronto has dominated the majority of the series. Even in the games that Golden State won, they barely hung on for dear life at the end. Sure, the Warriors got a huge jolt of energy from Kevin Durant’s presence in Game 5, but knowing he’s gone has to put them in a different mindset. Unfortunately, that mindset could be detrimental as the Splash Brothers know they need to do literally everything on offense.

Expect Nick Nurse to formulate a gameplan that makes life difficult on Curry and Thompson all night. In my opinion, you HAVE TO make anyone but these two guys beat you.

We know this will be the final game at Oracle Arena and the crowd will be the loudest it has ever been. However, I don’t think that’ll be enough to help the worn-down and beat-up Warriors tonight. Kawhi Leonard has the perfect mentality, in that a riled-up crowd isn’t something that will get to him. Expect the rest of his teammates to follow suit and hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Lastly, the SK Trend Confidence rating likes the total to go under in this game, as three of the last four games in this series have suffered the same fate.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 103 – Golden State Warriors: 99 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (5-3, 3.72 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
BOS: David Price – L (4-2, 2.70 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

Vegas has already declared this as a low-scoring game, dropping the IRTs for both teams – Rangers: -0.6, Red Sox: -0.3. The Rangers’ IRT actually comes in as the largest drop for any team on today’s entire schedule.

David Price has been simply magnificent, and you know this because he actually pitched well at Yankee Stadium two starts ago, a place that’s been an absolute nightmare for him. Not including the one start where Price came out in the first inning at Houston (due to sickness), the veteran lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. In addition, Price has a microscopic 1.08 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this season.

The Rangers’ offense has not been great against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .302 xwOBA and .127 ISO.

After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Adrian Sampson has allowed exactly one run in four of his last five starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. Not to mention, Sampson has struck out 18 batters in his last 16 innings of work. It also helps matters for the under that Boston’s offense has only produced an average of three runs per game over the last seven contests.

All in all, both starting pitchers are at the top of their respective games and Vegas has made the proper adjustments on the run total. 10 of the Rangers’ last 14 games have gone under the total, while Red Sox games have suffered the same fate in four of the last five.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-6, 4.97 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
TB: Ryan Yarbrough – L (5-2, 5.31 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

Both of these teams have been doing a great job against left-handed pitching and also have a great history against each of these pitchers.

Let’s start with the Angels, who smashed Ryan Yarbrough for six runs (two homers) in 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field last season. Los Angeles has been great against lefties all season, but even more recently owns a robust .400 wOBA and .269 ISO over the last 21 days.

Yarbrough is scheduled to come in after the “opener” that Tampa Bay occasionally rolls out for an inning or two. Good news for the total going over tonight, as Yarbrough owns a 7.25 ERA at Tropicana Field – 3.15 ERA on the road.

The Rays don’t necessarily have the power numbers against lefties, but they are getting on base a great deal, registering a .347 wOBA over the last 21 days. In that same start where Yarbrough got ripped last season, Tyler Skaggs did even worse, allowing 10 runs over 3 1/3 innings. Much like Yarbrough’s splits working in our favor, Skaggs has a much worse 6.23 ERA on the road, compared to his 3.58 ERA at home.

Vegas adjusted the run total from 8.5 to 9.0, with each team getting a slight increase on the IRT, so that is good news that things are trending in that direction. Look for history to repeat itself and plenty of cleats to touch home plate tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Tampa Bay Rays: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers (ML: -126) at Kansas City Royals
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-4, 3.08 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-6, 5.90 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Matthew Boyd had a few tough matchups of late but still managed to hold his own against some of the league’s best. In fact, he’s notched at least seven strikeouts in each of five outings, and that includes going against teams like the Twins, Braves and A’s. That’s bad news for a Royals team that is striking out 27.8% of the time against lefties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, their offense against lefties has sucked all year, owning the third-worst wOBA (.281) in baseball this season.

Boyd did skill this KC team a month ago, striking out nine Royals over seven innings en route to a win.

On the other side, Homer Bailey gets ripped with great regularity. Bailey has some of the worst advanced metrics of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, setting up a huge night for the Tigers’ offense. While they haven’t scored a ton of runs lately, the heart of the order has been making solid contact against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days and that bad luck is bound to turn around, especially against a pitcher like Bailey.

Look for Detroit to get back on the good foot and Boyd to lead the way with a dominant performance tonight. The Tigers are 6-2 against the Royals this season and Bailey’s teams are a dreadful 6-27 in games that he’s started over the last two seasons.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (1.5-run line: -104)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-7, 7.36 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
TEX: Ariel Jurado – R (2-2, 2.43 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

David Hess has been getting ripped with regularity, surrendering at least five runs (four earned) in each of his last four starts. If all of that wasn’t enough, the righty has also allowed a total of nine homers in a span of 20 2/3 innings. Vegas knows this, giving the Rangers a +0.6 IRT increase — the highest on today’s entire schedule.

A humid Texas night certainly won’t help anything, as temperatures are expected to be in the lower-90s with the wind blowing out to center field at 10 mph.

The Rangers have had their fair share of struggles against left-handed pitching, but the righties are another story. Over the course of this season, Texas ranks third in wOBA (weighted on-base average – .344) and fourth in ISO (power metric – .206). If/when the Rangers beat up Hess early, look for them to continue taking advantage of an Orioles’ bullpen which has allowed the most homers (50) and the second-highest ERA (5.86) in all of baseball.

Ariel Jurado takes the mound for the Rangers, and the starter’s role suits him well. After a shaky debut as a starter, he has come back strong in each of the last two games with a quality start in each of those outings, limiting the opposition to two runs in both.

The Orioles have done most of their recent damage against left-handed pitching but it’s the righties that have given them more trouble than anything. In fact, Baltimore has a putrid .245 wOBA, .145 ISO and 27.4% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Look for Jurado to get that third-consecutive quality outing.

I’m going with the Rangers on the 1.5-run line, considering the opposition has put up eight runs or more in seven of the last 10 games that Hess has started.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 * 

[10:07 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-106) – Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels 
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (4-3, 4.78 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-5, 4.80 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

America’s favorite stat, BvP, looms large in the battle of California teams this evening. Both sides have three hitters with a good deal of success against tonight’s starting pitcher and Vegas believes that (or something else) could be a key factor in the total going over 9.5 runs. The IRT increased slightly for each team since the open — Angels: +0.3, Athletics: +0.2.

Since throwing a no-hitter, Mike Fiers has been solid — but not perfect. He has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four starts and issued three walks in three of those four. It’s always a tough matchup against this Angels’ bunch, but even more so tonight as six of their regular starters have a batting average that is above .300 over the last seven days.

Mike Trout absolutely owns Fiers, going 8-for-21 with six extra-base hits, two homers and five walks. Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun both have solid numbers against Fiers as well.

Tyler Skaggs has been absolutely belted of late, allowing at least four runs in four of his last five starts. Three A’s hitters, in particular, have crushed him as well. Khris Davis (7-for-18, 4 HR), Marcus Semien (10-for-21, 6 XBH, 2 HR) and Chad Pinder (4-for-12, 1 XBH) all slept at the ballpark last night because they couldn’t wait to get in the box tonight.

One key factor that could work in the A’s favor tonight is the Angels bullpen, which owns the sixth-worst ERA (6.12) over the last 14 days. That, coupled with the ownage of Skaggs, could ultimately be the difference.

To close, it’s worth noting that four of the last five matchups between the two teams have gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 68-43-4 (61.3%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +114)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (3-2, 5.35 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (3-0, 4.86 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Phillies have the highest IRT (+0.7) and second-highest moneyline (-155 to -176) increases on the day. And that’s a good sign, considering Aaron Nola is on the hill for Philly. Aside from a rough outing against the powerful Brewers, Nola held opposing teams to one run in each of his previous three starts.

Meanwhile, these Rockies are striking out at a 31.8% clip over the last seven days, which is the second-highest in all of baseball. Now that the weather is starting to get a little warmer in Philly, we should see Nola get a better grip on the baseball, thus giving him more movement on those breaking pitches.

Antonio Senzatela has been much better on the road (3.31 ERA) than at home (7.27 ERA) this season, but Vegas has already spoken with the increases for the Phillies today. I have a feeling Rhys Hoskins is about to break out of his recent skid, as Senzatela has allowed more extra-base hits to right-handed hitters. Not to mention, Philly has quite a few righties that can do the same with Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, JT Realmuto and Maikel Franco.

Ultimately, I don’t mind the over in this game, considering the bullpens for both sides rank in the bottom third of MLB over the last seven days, but Philly on the 1.5-run line is where I’m planting my flag.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-122) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
BAL: John Means – L (5-3, 2.33 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (season debut)

Progressive Field is one of the few stadiums in baseball that has to deal with these pesky shadows for mid-day games. That’s bad news for an Indians team that already has the fourth-highest K-rate (28.1%) against left-handed pitching.

Hopefully, those shadows help Adam Plutko, who will be making his season debut after pitching down in Triple-A. He did make 17 appearances (12 starts) last season, going 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA, but did pitch well against this Baltimore team during that stretch.

All in all, the background conditions should be able to give a nice boost to both pitchers today early on, and that should hold off the double-digit total for long enough. The SK Trend Confidence rating also likes this game as one of its top plays today.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +106)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-4, 5.77 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
LAA: Griffin Canning – R (1-1, 5.65 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

A lot of people that I trust are big on this Griffin Canning kid, and I can pick up what they’re putting down. Despite losing at hitter-friendly Camden Yards in his last outing, Canning has posted at least six strikeouts in all three of his starts this season. The Royals’ offense has been quite stagnant of late, with only four runs over the last three games. Prior to yesterday’s two-run output, KC posted one run or fewer in four of five games.

Jakob Junis has not been good this season, allowing at least eight baserunners in seven of his last eight starts. That’s not good news for an Angels team that has a massive .401 wOBA and .219 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Just as we did yesterday, we’re going with the Angels big here.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *