Tag: Golden State Warriors

NBA Finals & MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 104-85-4 (55%) *

NBA Finals – Game 6:
Under 211.5 (-110) – Toronto Raptors (+2.5, -110/ML: +124) at Golden State Warriors

Game 5 was a cruel twist of everyone’s emotions. The Warriors led nearly the entire game, but that was followed by a Raptors run that gave them a 103-97 advantage with about five minutes to go. Then, just as they’ve done so many times in the past, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson engineered a meticulous 3-point shooting exhibition and took the lead late to come away with the 106-105 victory.

Let’s be honest – Toronto has dominated the majority of the series. Even in the games that Golden State won, they barely hung on for dear life at the end. Sure, the Warriors got a huge jolt of energy from Kevin Durant’s presence in Game 5, but knowing he’s gone has to put them in a different mindset. Unfortunately, that mindset could be detrimental as the Splash Brothers know they need to do literally everything on offense.

Expect Nick Nurse to formulate a gameplan that makes life difficult on Curry and Thompson all night. In my opinion, you HAVE TO make anyone but these two guys beat you.

We know this will be the final game at Oracle Arena and the crowd will be the loudest it has ever been. However, I don’t think that’ll be enough to help the worn-down and beat-up Warriors tonight. Kawhi Leonard has the perfect mentality, in that a riled-up crowd isn’t something that will get to him. Expect the rest of his teammates to follow suit and hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Lastly, the SK Trend Confidence rating likes the total to go under in this game, as three of the last four games in this series have suffered the same fate.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 103 – Golden State Warriors: 99 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (5-3, 3.72 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
BOS: David Price – L (4-2, 2.70 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

Vegas has already declared this as a low-scoring game, dropping the IRTs for both teams – Rangers: -0.6, Red Sox: -0.3. The Rangers’ IRT actually comes in as the largest drop for any team on today’s entire schedule.

David Price has been simply magnificent, and you know this because he actually pitched well at Yankee Stadium two starts ago, a place that’s been an absolute nightmare for him. Not including the one start where Price came out in the first inning at Houston (due to sickness), the veteran lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. In addition, Price has a microscopic 1.08 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park this season.

The Rangers’ offense has not been great against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .302 xwOBA and .127 ISO.

After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Adrian Sampson has allowed exactly one run in four of his last five starts – the one misnomer, he allowed three. Not to mention, Sampson has struck out 18 batters in his last 16 innings of work. It also helps matters for the under that Boston’s offense has only produced an average of three runs per game over the last seven contests.

All in all, both starting pitchers are at the top of their respective games and Vegas has made the proper adjustments on the run total. 10 of the Rangers’ last 14 games have gone under the total, while Red Sox games have suffered the same fate in four of the last five.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (4-6, 4.97 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
TB: Ryan Yarbrough – L (5-2, 5.31 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

Both of these teams have been doing a great job against left-handed pitching and also have a great history against each of these pitchers.

Let’s start with the Angels, who smashed Ryan Yarbrough for six runs (two homers) in 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field last season. Los Angeles has been great against lefties all season, but even more recently owns a robust .400 wOBA and .269 ISO over the last 21 days.

Yarbrough is scheduled to come in after the “opener” that Tampa Bay occasionally rolls out for an inning or two. Good news for the total going over tonight, as Yarbrough owns a 7.25 ERA at Tropicana Field – 3.15 ERA on the road.

The Rays don’t necessarily have the power numbers against lefties, but they are getting on base a great deal, registering a .347 wOBA over the last 21 days. In that same start where Yarbrough got ripped last season, Tyler Skaggs did even worse, allowing 10 runs over 3 1/3 innings. Much like Yarbrough’s splits working in our favor, Skaggs has a much worse 6.23 ERA on the road, compared to his 3.58 ERA at home.

Vegas adjusted the run total from 8.5 to 9.0, with each team getting a slight increase on the IRT, so that is good news that things are trending in that direction. Look for history to repeat itself and plenty of cleats to touch home plate tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Tampa Bay Rays: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers (ML: -126) at Kansas City Royals
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-4, 3.08 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-6, 5.90 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Matthew Boyd had a few tough matchups of late but still managed to hold his own against some of the league’s best. In fact, he’s notched at least seven strikeouts in each of five outings, and that includes going against teams like the Twins, Braves and A’s. That’s bad news for a Royals team that is striking out 27.8% of the time against lefties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, their offense against lefties has sucked all year, owning the third-worst wOBA (.281) in baseball this season.

Boyd did skill this KC team a month ago, striking out nine Royals over seven innings en route to a win.

On the other side, Homer Bailey gets ripped with great regularity. Bailey has some of the worst advanced metrics of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, setting up a huge night for the Tigers’ offense. While they haven’t scored a ton of runs lately, the heart of the order has been making solid contact against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days and that bad luck is bound to turn around, especially against a pitcher like Bailey.

Look for Detroit to get back on the good foot and Boyd to lead the way with a dominant performance tonight. The Tigers are 6-2 against the Royals this season and Bailey’s teams are a dreadful 6-27 in games that he’s started over the last two seasons.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 5: Golden State Warriors (-1, -105/ML: -114) at Toronto Raptors

The city of Toronto is ready to celebrate an NBA championship for the first time in its history, but it’ll have to wait until Thursday or Sunday… or never.

Kevin Durant is back for the Warriors and it’s really anyone’s guess how he’ll perform. Personally, I don’t think he’s going to make a HUGE difference, but his presence could be enough to get Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson a little more wiggle-room to shoot. KD is a body the Raptors certainly have to account for, and you wonder if they’ll end up putting Kawhi Leonard on him instead of Klay or Steph. Ohhhhh, the mind games – I love it!

The Raptors’ length has proven to be detrimental for the Warriors, and adding KD will only space things out a bit more for the Splash Brothers, who both need to be at the top of their games – we’ve seen them do this plenty of times.

I do think it’s a fascinating optic that this Warriors team has been on both sides of the 3-to-1 coin. They know exactly what works to get back from that deficit, and also what allowed the Cavs to come back on them.

Toronto won’t make this easy on Golden State with the rawkus crowd, but if KD gets off to a hot start look for them to be neutralized a bit. I wasn’t going to underestimate the champs without KD, but now that they have him, I’m ready to make the ballsy prediction.

We’re going back to Oakland for Game 6 – and then coming back for Game 7!

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 115 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 99-81-4 (55%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.55 ERA/1.22 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.84 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

Chris Sale shrugged off a horrific start to this season and even threw a complete-game shutout his last time out against the Royals. Tonight, he’ll be taking on a Rangers team that owns the fourth-highest K-rate (26.4%) against left-handed pitching. Sale has truly thrived on the home crowd, striking out 48 batters in 28 1/3 innings at Fenway Park this season.

If all of that wasn’t enough, Sale is 3-0 in three starts against Texas since coming to Boston. The electric lefty also has at least 12 strikeouts in four of his last five starts against the Rangers.

While Sale has amazing numbers in this matchup, let’s not count out Mike Minor here. Outside of a rough outing on Opening Day, the veteran lefty has been simply magnificent this season with seven quality starts since the beginning of April.

Minor has been better at home, but this matchup against the Red Sox is one that could even out the splits. They were dazzled by lefty Blake Snell yesterday and now own some less than gaudy numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, including a 25% K-rate over that span.

I’m going with the under of 7.5 runs tonight, considering Vegas dropped the IRT (implied run total) -0.5 runs for both sides. Sale’s K-prop sits at 9.5 (-112 for both over/under) and I don’t mind taking the over on that one either.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -122)
OAK: Tanner Anderson – R (season debut)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (7-0, 2.30 ERA/1.06 WHIP)

There’s plenty of data behind the Rays, including two of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings of the night in our system.

Tanner Anderson is making the first start of his MLB career, and he registered a 6.26 ERA down in Triple-A this season. Tampa’s offense looked outstanding in Boston over the weekend, and now own a zaftig .360 xwOBA (contact metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tampa’s +0.6 IRT increase is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate, and it also helps that Oakland’s bullpen ranks second-worst in xFIP and SIERA over the last 14 days.

It’s truly unbelievable, but Charlie Morton has not registered a loss over his last 20 starts, allowed three runs or fewer in 18 times and two runs or fewer in 15 times. Look for the A’s to struggle with playing catch-up for Anderson’s apparent rough start.

We’re taking the Rays with resounding confidence.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Oakland A’s: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, -110/ML: -196)

Here we go! The Golden State Warriors find themselves in a familiar 1-2 hole, a place they have climbed out of before three times en route to a title in previous years. I do think the safer route to go is with the Warriors on the moneyline, but it also means we’re going to have to put up a lot in order to do so.

Golden State will have Klay Thompson back in the lineup, albeit not at 100 percent. We can even make the argument that Steve Kerr knew exactly what he was doing, resting Klay in Game 3 and sacrificing the battle for the war. Regardless, his presence will force Toronto to focus on him, and give the Warriors’ role players more room to operate on the offensive end. Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be more focused and take a vengeful approach to this contest after Marc Gasol thoroughly outplayed him in Game 3.

The Raptors have plenty of firepower that has shown up as the playoffs have gone along, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. Danny Green had an outstanding Game 3, and you have to think the Warriors get all up in his grill. Kawhi Leonard will always be the focal point of the Raptors’ offense but look for Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala to turn up the defensive intensity a bit.

Speaking of Dray, we know he always turns it up a bit when the Warriors’ backs are against the wall. FanDuel Sportsbook has his odds to get a triple-double at +220 tonight. Essentially, they’re saying it’s going to happen – the next closest player is Stephen Curry at +2600. If that’s the case, and Dray gets the trip-dub, the Warriors are probably going to win this game.

How many times have we seen the Warriors look like they were dead in the water, and then pop up right back up with the good stuff? I’d love to take the Warriors at -4.5, but Klay’s status is one that could ultimately determine how close the game is. Let’s play it safe…

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 110 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *


* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (1.5-run line: +116)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (4-4, 5.33 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.49 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

Jacob deGrom certainly hasn’t been at his best this season, but tonight’s opponent will certainly be a welcome sight. The right-handed ace has absolutely dominated the Rockies over the course of his career, as the current roster owns a putrid .167 batting average and .189 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances. I think the most amazing takeaway from this is that deGrom has allowed only one earned run in 30 innings when pitching against the Rockies at Citi Field.

Antonio Senzatela got away with facing a downtrodden Blue Jays offense in his last start, but he did allow nine hits in each of the two outings before that. Not to mention, this guy can’t stop walking people – in the month of May, Senzatela issued 15 free passes over 29 2/3 innings.

deGrom is going to dominate the Rockies once again, as evidenced by the zaftig moneyline given by Vegas. I do think we can steal some money here, going with the 1.5-run line (at +114) as opposed to the massive moneyline which is at -210.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 (-106) – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (6-1, 1.41 ERA/0.91 WHIP)
MIA: Jose Urena – R (4-6, 4.14 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

Jose Urena has actually pitched very well of late, with a quality start in each of his last five outings. However, the last time he failed to do so came against the same Braves’ team he’ll see tonight – Urena allowed five runs over six innings in that game. In fact, Atlanta has performed quite well against the righty in recent history, with at least four runs against him in each of the last three meetings — five runs against him in each of the last two meetings.

Before scoring one run in Pittsburgh on get-away day yesterday, Atlanta scored 33 runs in the previous four games.

Mike Soroka finally showed signs that he’s human in that last start against the Tigers, allowing four runs (three earned) over 6 2/3 innings. The Marlins also had a one-run get-away day yesterday, but they too went bananas in the previous four games, scoring 42 runs over that span. I’m not saying Soroka is going to get beat over the head, but I do think Miami can put up at least three runs here and add to the total.

All in all, I feel like the 7.5 total is certainly a level that could be reached tonight. Both of these teams have been hot offensively, and Atlanta’s history of success against Urena is well-documented.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[10:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -144) at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (5-0, 3.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-6, 8.08 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

Clayton Kershaw takes his unbeaten record into Oracle Park tonight against a Giants team that ranks dead-last in wOBA (.268) against left-handed pitching. Yes, this is the same Giants team that allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete-game shutout against them earlier this week. That, right there, is really all the evidence I need, and I reeeeeally should just end it there.

But I won’t. I’m an elite-level sports betting journalist… or so it says on my Hinge profile.

Kershaw has owned San Francisco over the course of his career, going 22-10 with a 1.70 ERA, six complete games and five shutouts in 44 starts. Not to mention, the current Giants’ lineup has a putrid .198 batting average and .231 on-base percentage against Kershaw in 360 plate appearances. It’s no surprise that the Giants’ 3.0 IRT is the lowest on tonight’s slate.

Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for the Giants and he’s glad the calendar has flipped to June – not that it’ll do him any good. The month of May was an absolute disaster as he wound up with a 19.16 ERA (yes, that is correct), 22 runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers haven’t been outstanding against left-handed pitching of late, but seeing Pomeranz should increase their metrics quite a bit. After all, the Dodgers are ninth in wOBA (.332) against lefties this season, but their .307 mark over the last 14 days in that split is just more of a testament to the pitchers they’ve faced.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Game 3, NBA Finals: Toronto Raptors (+4.5, -105) at Golden State Warriors

It’s incredibly difficult to gauge this game without truly knowing the status of Klay Thompson. The part that is even more frustrating is that this decision likely won’t be up to him – rather, the Warriors’ training staff. Klay’s mobility will be tested out in pregame warmups, and a decision will be made at that time.

If Thompson is unable to go, it’ll be a huge advantage for the visiting Raptors, who actually won here in Oakland by 20 points back in December. Not only does he provide an unlimited outside range, but Klay’s defense is just flat out dominant. Losing two big aspects like that could be too much for even the almighty Warriors to overcome.

Aside from the first six minutes of the third quarter in Game 2, you can argue that the Raptors have controlled this series. Their length has proven to be difficult for the smaller Warriors, and if Klay does indeed miss tonight’s game, you have to believe the Raptors will throw box-and-1 and double-team defenses at him all night.

It is worth noting, the Warriors have either lost or won by single-digits in five of their seven home playoff games during this run. For the final score prediction, I’ll give it to Raptors with the assumption Klay sits out. If he’s in, I think the Warriors win, but without covering the spread.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 108 – Golden State Warriors: 104 *

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 95-77-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (ML: -130) at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.71 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
CLE: bullpen game

By the way, I just want to mention how utterly furious I am at the onset. I had this gorgeous article written up for this game and how Carlos Carrasco was going to get beat over the head. Well, at about 3:00 p.m. EST, Carrasco was scratched and announced that he’ll be heading to the injured list.

Sigh. The life of a sports betting writer…

Our system has a B+ for Minnesota on the moneyline, and that was even when Carlos Carrasco was supposed to take the mound. Now, it’ll be a bullpen game for the Indians. Tyler Clippard will take the first inning and then it’s all up in the air from there. It is worth noting, though, that the Indians’ bullpen has the sixth-worst xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) over the last seven days. Oliver Perez is pretty much the only exception, but he probably won’t be used since he’s already pitched 4 2/3 innings over the last seven days, including throwing an inning last night.

Minnesota has been crushing baseballs all season, leading MLB in homers. Looking at it in a closer prism, though, the Twins’ projected lineup owns a massive .354 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and .278 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. I assume they’ll some mostly right-handers tonight.

Martin Perez’s last start was his worst outing of the season, allowing six hits and six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Prior to that disaster, Perez had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, while averaging about 6 1/3 innings per outing over that span. It also helps that the Indians own the sixth-lowest wOBA in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Behind Perez is the Minnesota bullpen, which ranks in the top-three of MLB of most advanced pitching metrics over the last 14 days.

Two trends to look at heading into tonight:
– Twins are 15-4 after a loss this season
– Twins are 21-10 in road games this season

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.74 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Two outstanding lefties take the mound at Globe Life Park tonight. I’m usually nervous about taking the under in Texas with humid conditions, but not with John Means and Mike Minor going toe-to-toe.

Let’s start with the homey Minor, who owns a 2.50 ERA in six home starts this season. Unfortunately, he would’ve had better numbers, but a trashy fifth-inning defensive performance and a homer that scraped the foul pole in his last outing thwarted that. Discredit that one bad inning and ride Minor to a low total tonight. Yeehaw!

On the other side, Means has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts since being placed in the starting rotation. In fact, he allowed only run in four of those starts. Means has already pitched well in environments like Camden Yards, Coors Field, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium – so what’s the big deal adding some Globe Life Park to the mix? Not to mention, the Rangers have a putrid .280 xwOBA and .139 ISO over the last 14 days against left-handed pitching.

Even with the humid conditions, Vegas dropped the IRTs for both sides (Orioles: -0.2, Rangers: -0.3) while the game total went from 9.5 to 9.0 as well. Neither team’s bullpen is one that I want to trust, but I’ll give the Rangers the edge at home after dropping one last night.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 4 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (2-3, 4.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (4-3, 3.94 ERA/1.58 WHIP)

Weather permitting, we should have ourselves a good ole fashioned slugfest at Busch Stadium. The conditions are great for hitting, with temperatures in the upper-80s and humidity playing a big factor.

Vegas has taken notice, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Cardinals: +0.7, Reds: +0.4) and the game total from 8.5 to 9.5. Both of these teams have been playing to a lot of totals going under of late, so it makes the Vegas movement even more intriguing.

Anthony DeSclafani, from the great state of New Jersey, has been getting ripped over his last five starts. The righty has allowed 31 hits, 19 runs and nine over the last 23 1/3 innings of work. The heart of the Cards’ order has hit DeSclafani well over the course of their careers, so look for that to continue on Wednesday.

Dakota Hudson has been doing a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but a lot of these Reds’ hitters can still make life difficult on him. Cincy did put eight baserunners (seven hits, one walk) up against him in their previous meeting. Not to mention, they have a fantastic .347 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Cincinnati Reds: 5 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *

NBA Playoffs Value Bets for Thursday, April 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 228 – Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets

If you haven’t been near a TV set this past week, let me fill you in – these two teams don’t like each other. Not only that, but the Brooklyn crowd will be going absolutely bonkers for its first home playoff game since 2015, which actually seems a lot longer than that. Add in the mix of Philly fans that are likely to make the trip down I-95 to Barclays Center, and we’re looking at one of the more electric atmospheres for any first-round matchup.

So, what does it all mean? Excitement, and plenty of it. In fact, four of the six meetings (regular season and playoffs) between these two teams have resulted in the total going over. Looking deeper into it, both teams scored at least 110 points in those four games and at least 123 in three of the six.

The Nets know the only way they’re beating the 76ers is by outscoring them… duh. But most of Brooklyn’s best defensive efforts held Philly to a high total throughout the year. The only time one of these teams didn’t reach 100 was back in the first meeting on Nov. 4 when the 76ers lost 122-97.

All in all, these teams are going to score, and you don’t want to be the stick in the mud that takes the under in this one.

[9:10 p.m. EST] Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs (-4, -174 ML)

This series has been sort awkward, in that Games 1 and 2 weren’t really close until the fourth quarter. The Spurs lost their way late in that last game but completed the mission by taking back homecourt advantage in the best-of-seven battle. If it weren’t for a magical second-half performance from Jamal Murray in Game 2, San Antonio would be looking to put Denver in a deep 0-3 hole.

The Spurs have shown they are more than capable of handling their counterparts in this series. With the scene shifting back to AT&T Center, look for San Antonio to capitalize on the strides they’ve made so far. After all, the Spurs went 32-9 at AT&T Center this season and the Nuggets haven’t won there since March 2012.

If bettors needed a reminder, the Spurs had the second-best odds (OKC was first) of any underdog to win a first-round series, and that has now changed after the Thunder fell in an 0-2 hole. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, San Antonio now has the best odds (+122) of all underdogs to win a first-round series. I’m no mathematician, but that’s a pretty good indication of an upset going down.

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of tonight’s NBA slate is the Spurs on the moneyline. However, the four-point spread shouldn’t be that tough to hit either, but you’ll be laying more money out to do so.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (+8.5/+300 ML)

The almighty Warriors couldn’t possibly lose two straight first-round games to the Clippers, could they? Well, according to our Value Picks section, the Clippers on the moneyline has the highest SK Trend Confidence of the NBA slate. Reason being, you only have to lay $100 in order to bring back $300 in return.

It’s not totally out of the question either, consider Los Angeles did pull the major upset in Game 2 after being down 31 points, and now have the momentum coming into Game 3. Fans around the globe will certainly tune in to see how Golden State comes out in this game, and there could be some bumps in the road as they learn to cope without DeMarcus Cousins. Granted, the Warriors have had plenty of success without him before, but this is a scrappy and well-coached Clippers team that has a ton of pesky competitors on their side.

Golden State seems to have no answer in this series for Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrel, who have been excellent as always off the bench. And, of course, we can’t forget the impact Patrick Beverley has had in pestering Kevin Durant whenever possible.

The Warriors might eventually win this series, but the SK system sees a few trends that’ll ultimately make that goal a little tougher to reach — starting tonight. If the moneyline seems too risky, going with the Clippers +8.5 could end up being more ideal for bettors. After all, 95% of the public’s money is on the Warriors, and most know that running the opposite way of the public has worked plenty of times before.

NBA Betting Preview for Tuesday, April 2

Be sure to check out Spread Knowledge writer Al Walsh on SB Nation’s NBAyd with Gary Ayd tonight at 9:25 p.m. EST.

NBA Betting Preview for Tuesday, April 2

Houston Rockets (-5/-215 ML) at Sacramento Kings – Total: 226

The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings just squared off three days ago, with the Rockets taking the upper hand, 119-108. Typically, in these home-and-home sets, the team that lost the front-end usually comes back to win the back-end.

Not so fast, my friends!

The SK system is a big fan of the Rockets, who are looking to propel themselves back up to the No. 3 seed of the Western Conference playoff picture momentarily. After all, they are 9-1 against the Kings over the last 10 meetings. Not only that but Houston’s star player, James Harden, will look to make one of his last gasps at the NBA’s MVP award after Giannis Antetokounmpo had another memorable performance against the Brooklyn Nets last night.

SK’s system also likes the total to go under 226, as 16 of Houston’s 20 games have suffered that same fate since the All-Star break – the same can be said about Sacramento, which has done the same in five of its last seven. The Kings are tied for the second-fastest pace in the NBA, but Harden and the Rockets will slow it down with the league’s fifth-slowest tempo.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors – Total: 219.5

The Golden State Warriors had a long string of games hitting under the total during March, but this game, which could ultimately determine the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, should have them clicking on all cylinders against the Denver Nuggets. Both teams (GS: #1, DEN: #8) find themselves in the Top-10 of the league’s offensive efficiency ranking, and two of the three games between the teams have gone well over the 219.5 total we’ll see tonight. While Denver has struggled a bit on offense of late, we’ll look for Golden State to lead the way and take us to the promised land. After all, the Warriors have netted at least 120 points in three of their last four games.

College Basketball and NBA Betting Preview for Friday, March 29

Welcome back for a fantastic Friday night of hoops in the college and pro games! Just as we said yesterday, it’s a great night to put a butt groove in your favorite seat.  Here’s what the Spread Knowledge system has in store for our fanbase tonight!

College Basketball Betting Preview

[7:09 p.m. EST] Michigan State Spartans (-6) vs. LSU Tigers – played in Washington, DC

The Michigan State Spartans are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2015 and they’ll take on an LSU Tigers squad that had to squeak by in each of their first two games of the tournament. The SK system thinks the Tigers’ luck runs out tonight against Sparty, with Tom Izzo and the boys moving on to the Elite 8. LSU failed to cover the spread in those two games and now face a much stiffer test. Michigan State ranks highly in a number of different statistics, including field goal percentage, 3-point percentages, free-throw percentage, offensive rebounding and blocks, so look for them to have a well-rounded performance against LSU en route to victory.

[7:29 p.m. EST] Auburn Tigers (+5.5/+204 ML) vs. UNC Tar Heels – played in Kansas City, MO

It should be a fun night in the CBS studios with Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith having their alma maters matched against each other. But, on the court is where the real action is. The Auburn Tigers got lucky in an opening round win against the New Mexico State Aggies but parlayed that good fate into a second-round clobbering of the Kansas Jayhawks. The SK system likes Auburn to move on to the Elite 8 with an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels – as always, if you feel like that’s too much, take the Tigers with the 5.5 points they’re getting. One big loss for UNC could be Nassir Little, who is a true game-time decision with an illness.

Bettors will certainly want to keep an eye for our Live Picks alert during this game, as both teams can put up points in a hurry. If the game gets off to a slow start, you might get a much lower number on the total to take the over. Once again, sign up here for Live Pick alerts!

[9:57 p.m. EST] Kentucky Wildcats (-141 ML) vs. Houston Cougars – played in Kansas City, MO

The Kentucky Wildcats may have P.J. Washington back for this game and would welcome him back with welcome arms. With Washington in the lineup, Kentucky’s offensive metrics are through the roof compared to when he’s absent. Granted, there could be some problems integrating him back into the offense, but it was clear that the Wildcats missed the versatility that Washington brings to the team in their second-round win against Wofford. Kentucky will especially need his presence to improve its 3-point shooting against a Houston Cougars team that defends the arc as well as any team in the nation. All in all, the SK system is in favor of a well-rounded Kentucky team, on the moneyline, that could potentially have its best player back in the lineup.

NBA Betting Preview

[7:10 p.m.] Under 213.5 – Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

It’s a HUGE matchup tonight as the Indiana Pacers travel to Beantown for a date with the Boston Celtics. Currently, the Pacers have a one-game lead on the Celtics, and this is the first of two meetings between these two teams in a span of eight days. It’s also worth noting, Indiana games have gone under the total in 11 of its last 13. The SK system likes another under, in what should be a hard-fought game between two teams playing for home-court advantage in a series that’ll likely be against each other.

[8:10 p.m.] Under 228.5 – Golden State Warriors (-9.5/-500 ML) at Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a nice combo-play that the SK system loves tonight with the Golden State Warriors over the Minnesota Timberwolves and the under in the game. The Warriors actually just played in Minnesota 10 days ago and won by 10 with the total falling at 224, which resulted in the under hitting. These T-Wolves are well out of the playoff race while the Warriors have a No. 1 seed to clinch. Look for Golden State to take care of business tonight and put its competition out of commission early.

[10:40 p.m.] Charlotte Hornets (-135 ML) at Los Angeles Lakers

In what is SK system’s top pick of the night, the Charlotte Hornets are in an advantageous position against the uninspired Los Angeles Lakers. Charlotte has made an incredible run down the stretch and now find themselves only 1.5 games away from the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets certainly need this game considering their schedule is quite brutal down the stretch, while the Lakers have no interest in winning whatsoever.

NBA Betting Preview for Wednesday, March 27

Welcome back for another night of NBA action! Before we get to tonight’s slate of five games, let’s take a look at how Spread Knowledge did last night:

✅ Under 227 in Houston/Milwaukee
✅ LA Clippers moneyline over Minnesota
✅ Over 233.5 in Washington/LA Lakers
❌ Houston moneyline over Milwaukee
❌ Under 226.5 in Sacramento/Dallas

Don’t forget, tomorrow is MLB Opening Day, so be on the lookout for that betting preview!

NBA Betting Preview for Wednesday, March 27

[8:05 p.m. EST] Portland Trail Blazers (-8.5/-294 ML) at Chicago Bulls – Total: 216.5

The Portland Trail Blazers were dealt a massive blow in Monday’s double-overtime win over the Brooklyn Nets, losing center Jusuf Nurkic for the season to a horrific leg injury – not to mention, C.J. McCollum is already on the shelf with a knee injury. While their championship aspirations have likely capsized, the Trail Blazers should still handle the Chicago Bulls with relative ease tonight. Our system thinks Portland, winners in seven of its last eight games, rally around one another to get the win on the moneyline over Chicago, which has lost nine of its last 12.

* Update: Chicago will be without its four best players tonight – Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter.

[8:05 p.m. EST] Golden State Warriors (-11/-650 ML) at Memphis Grizzlies – Total: 219.5

Who the heck is this Memphis Grizzlies team trying to make a name for themselves down the stretch? After another season of disappointment, Memphis is 5-1 outright in its last six home games, with wins against current playoff teams – Portland, Utah, Orlando, Houston, OKC. The system’s lean, however, lies in the total going under in this game. That’s probably because Golden State Warriors’ games have had that fate in 13 of their last 15. This is usually the time of the year that Golden State goes through the motions, and The Grindhouse has always presented a stiff challenge for this team over the years.

[8:05 p.m. EST] Indiana Pacers (+6.5/+231 ML) at Oklahoma City Thunder – Total: 217

The Indiana Pacers have slowly been losing their hold on home-court advantage for the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, losing four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Boston Celtics are just 1.5 games behind them for the four-seed, so it would behoove the Pacers to get their act together before the postseason starts in a little more than two weeks. The OKC Thunder have been equally as dreadful down the stretch, losing five of their last six games. Indy did get a narrow 108-106 win over OKC two weeks ago, and our system likes the Pacers to do so once again tonight on the road.

[10:05 p.m. EST] Washington Wizards (-3.5/-128 ML) at Phoenix Suns – Total: 231

The Washington Wizards played last night, so our system feels like they won’t have enough left in the tank to put up enough points tonight. And that’s interesting, considering the Phoenix Suns have the NBA’s second-worst defensive efficiency – the Wizards are no better themselves, sporting the fourth-worst defensive efficiency. The Suns will be missing Josh Jackson, Tyler Johnson and T.J. Warren tonight, so the scoring could be a lot harder to come by at that end of the floor. That, combined with the Wizards playing their second game in as many nights, has the system liking the under.

[10:35 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz (-15/-1200 ML) – Total: 217.5

We had the under in the last Utah Jazz game, but absolutely bizarre circumstances from the Phoenix Suns (thanks guys!) prohibited us from getting the win on that bet. That’s alright, now the Jazz owes us one tonight. The Los Angeles Lakers played (and won) last night, but the key here is the absence of LeBron James. He won’t be playing certain games down the stretch, particularly on the back-end of back-to-backs, and that’ll certainly make this Lakers team a shell of themselves on the road in such a hostile Salt Lake City environment. Utah is in “all-business” mode heading towards the postseason, with a 7-1 record over its last eight games. Our system likes the under in this game, so expect the Jazz to hold the Lakers down with relative ease.