Tag: Denver Nuggets

NBA Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[3:30 p.m. EST] Over 213 – Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5, +188 ML) at Denver Nuggets

Five of the six games, including the last five, have gone over the total in this series, so there’s no reason to think today will be any different. Sure, it’s a Game 7 and that means we could see a tightened-up defense, but that’s just not how this matchup has unfolded. The SK Trend Confidence has more faith in the total going over than anything else on the board today!

The Trail Blazers simply have no answer for Nikola Jokic, who has nearly triple-doubled in every game this season. This is, however, why Portland has needed to storm back with so many points in each game. Not to mention, both sides seem to have limitless motors, posting over 100 points total in the second half of each game, and that also speaks to the testament of how close these games have been.

Overall, the SK Trend Confidence likes the Trail Blazers to emerge as the victors in Game 7 over the Nuggets. The trio of Damian Lillard (32), CJ McCollum (30) and Rodney Hood (25) came up big on Thursday night, so look for them to be aggressive once again.

* Final Score Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers: 114 – Denver Nuggets: 112 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 209.5 – Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors (-6, -250 ML)

The grand finale of Game 7s takes place above the border with the Raptors hosting the 76ers. SK’s Trend Confidence loves a Toronto win on the moneyline as the most likely outcome, with the over coming in as the second-best bet.

After the series opened with five straight games going under the total, we’ve now seen two straight overs – both coming in blowouts. It’s also worth noting, as the totals have dropped, the totals have gone over. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing today, as the 209.5 total is the lowest of the series.

As for the Raptors, they have been favored in all but one game of this series. Vegas is telling us they’re the better team, so look for them to capitalize on the home-court advantage and move on to face the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 112 – Philadelphia 76ers: 102 *

NBA Playoffs Value Bets for Thursday, April 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 228 – Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets

If you haven’t been near a TV set this past week, let me fill you in – these two teams don’t like each other. Not only that, but the Brooklyn crowd will be going absolutely bonkers for its first home playoff game since 2015, which actually seems a lot longer than that. Add in the mix of Philly fans that are likely to make the trip down I-95 to Barclays Center, and we’re looking at one of the more electric atmospheres for any first-round matchup.

So, what does it all mean? Excitement, and plenty of it. In fact, four of the six meetings (regular season and playoffs) between these two teams have resulted in the total going over. Looking deeper into it, both teams scored at least 110 points in those four games and at least 123 in three of the six.

The Nets know the only way they’re beating the 76ers is by outscoring them… duh. But most of Brooklyn’s best defensive efforts held Philly to a high total throughout the year. The only time one of these teams didn’t reach 100 was back in the first meeting on Nov. 4 when the 76ers lost 122-97.

All in all, these teams are going to score, and you don’t want to be the stick in the mud that takes the under in this one.

[9:10 p.m. EST] Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs (-4, -174 ML)

This series has been sort awkward, in that Games 1 and 2 weren’t really close until the fourth quarter. The Spurs lost their way late in that last game but completed the mission by taking back homecourt advantage in the best-of-seven battle. If it weren’t for a magical second-half performance from Jamal Murray in Game 2, San Antonio would be looking to put Denver in a deep 0-3 hole.

The Spurs have shown they are more than capable of handling their counterparts in this series. With the scene shifting back to AT&T Center, look for San Antonio to capitalize on the strides they’ve made so far. After all, the Spurs went 32-9 at AT&T Center this season and the Nuggets haven’t won there since March 2012.

If bettors needed a reminder, the Spurs had the second-best odds (OKC was first) of any underdog to win a first-round series, and that has now changed after the Thunder fell in an 0-2 hole. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, San Antonio now has the best odds (+122) of all underdogs to win a first-round series. I’m no mathematician, but that’s a pretty good indication of an upset going down.

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of tonight’s NBA slate is the Spurs on the moneyline. However, the four-point spread shouldn’t be that tough to hit either, but you’ll be laying more money out to do so.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (+8.5/+300 ML)

The almighty Warriors couldn’t possibly lose two straight first-round games to the Clippers, could they? Well, according to our Value Picks section, the Clippers on the moneyline has the highest SK Trend Confidence of the NBA slate. Reason being, you only have to lay $100 in order to bring back $300 in return.

It’s not totally out of the question either, consider Los Angeles did pull the major upset in Game 2 after being down 31 points, and now have the momentum coming into Game 3. Fans around the globe will certainly tune in to see how Golden State comes out in this game, and there could be some bumps in the road as they learn to cope without DeMarcus Cousins. Granted, the Warriors have had plenty of success without him before, but this is a scrappy and well-coached Clippers team that has a ton of pesky competitors on their side.

Golden State seems to have no answer in this series for Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrel, who have been excellent as always off the bench. And, of course, we can’t forget the impact Patrick Beverley has had in pestering Kevin Durant whenever possible.

The Warriors might eventually win this series, but the SK system sees a few trends that’ll ultimately make that goal a little tougher to reach — starting tonight. If the moneyline seems too risky, going with the Clippers +8.5 could end up being more ideal for bettors. After all, 95% of the public’s money is on the Warriors, and most know that running the opposite way of the public has worked plenty of times before.

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *

NBA Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 7

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

If you haven’t been watching the NBA this season, Sunday is a great day to get yourself reacquainted with the game. There is a total of eight games on the docket that have some level of importance towards making the playoffs or positioning within the standings. Buckle up, folks. The Lord’s Day is going to be a dandy!

NBA Value Betting Picks for Sunday, April 7

[4:00 p.m. EST] Charlotte Hornets (+6.5) at Detroit Pistons – Total: 216

The Hornets have beaten the Pistons in all three meetings this season, two of them coming by 10+ points. After a brutal stretch of games out West, Charlotte has won its last two games and, thanks to help from other teams, still finds itself in the running for the last playoff bid in the East. The highest SK Trend Confidence on this game is in favor of the Hornets, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

[7:35 p.m. EST] Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (-190 ML) – Total: 217

Believe it or not, the Celtics have lost each of their two meetings against the Magic this season. This is a perfect time for Boston to repay the favor and finally clinch home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. The Celtics, who have gone through the motions this season, are clicking at the right time with five wins over the last six games. Those two wins from the Magic came by a combined five points. That, coupled with the fact that Orlando is fighting for its playoff livelihood, makes Boston a much safer play on the moneyline.

[9:00 p.m. EST] Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-135 ML) – Total: 217

This is EXCELLENT (I repeat… EXCELLENT) value on the Trail Blazers in this game. Why, you ask? Stay with me…

These two teams just played each other on Friday as part of a home-and-home series, and the team losing on the front-end of these matchups have come back to win over 70% of the time this season. Portland actually played Denver very well on Friday, despite what the nine-point differential might suggest. In fact, the Blazers are 6-1 in their last seven home games and desperately need a win tonight to keep a grip on the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Take Portland with confidence and, as an added sprinkle of goodness, the over in this game has a 27% Trend Confidence rating in this game – our second-highest rating on the entire slate.

NBA Betting Preview for Friday, April 5

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Get ready for another exciting night of NBA hoops! The Spread Knowledge top value plays of the night are listed below. However, because they are such heavy favorites on the moneyline, we’re only advising you to take them as an extra caveat to add to your parlays:

  • Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers (-667 ML)
  • New York Knicks at Houston Rockets (-2500 ML)

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 226.5 – Atlanta Hawks (+342 ML) at Orlando Magic

There’s no getting around it, but the Orlando Magic need to win, as they currently sit in the final spot of the Eastern Conference playoff race. This is the final time that Orlando will have a regular season game on its home court, so the level of importance doesn’t even need to be described.

However, the SK value system loves the moneyline number on the Atlanta Hawks, who have been quite pesky down the stretch with outright wins over the 76ers (twice), Bucks and Jazz. Hawks point guard Trae Young is still trying to make one last heroic attempt at winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award and he can certainly make life difficult on the Magic defense.

While it is true that Orlando hit four straight overs, 216 has been the highest total over that stretch. Granted, Atlanta’s NBA-leading pace and lackluster defense are the reasons we see a 226.5 total tonight, but that just lends more optimism that the Hawks come in and pull off the upset win. In fact, two of the three Hawks-Magic matchups have gone under tonight’s total.

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 213 – Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers

These two teams just faced off last Friday and now they’ll do battle once again. The term “battle” is an understatement, as they both have the same record and find themselves jockeying for homecourt advantage in their eventual first-round playoff matchup. The Boston Celtics do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker but a win for the Indiana Pacers would be monumental here.

The one lean the SK value system has is Under 213 points in the game, mainly because of the importance of defense in this matchup, as Indiana ranks third in defensive efficiency and Boston ranks sixth. Not to mention, the two teams just saw each other and will likely have their best defensive efforts on deck.

[10:10 p.m. EST] New Orleans Pelicans (-130) at Phoenix Suns

The SK value system has quite the knack for pointing out these late-season NBA games that have absolutely no meaning whatsoever in the standings. However, the amount of key players the Phoenix Suns are missing is just too large to ignore. Granted, the New Orleans Pelicans will be missing Anthony Davis but that seems like a blip on the radar, consider the Suns are missing Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and T.J. Warren.

Look for the Pelicans B-team to get the win over the Suns C-team.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Portland Trail Blazers (+236 ML) at Denver Nuggets

In what would be a dazzling upset win, the SK value system loves the Portland Trail Blazers to go on the road and get the outright W over the Denver Nuggets. The Trail Blazers have won 11 of their 13 games while the Nuggets have been a very Jekyll-and-Hyde sort of team, going 3-4 over the last seven. Denver has won each of the previous two meetings versus Portland this season by a combined four points. Not to mention, these two teams will face each other in their next game on Sunday – time for the Trail Blazers to get busy and even the score.

NBA Betting Preview for Tuesday, April 2

Be sure to check out Spread Knowledge writer Al Walsh on SB Nation’s NBAyd with Gary Ayd tonight at 9:25 p.m. EST.

NBA Betting Preview for Tuesday, April 2

Houston Rockets (-5/-215 ML) at Sacramento Kings – Total: 226

The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings just squared off three days ago, with the Rockets taking the upper hand, 119-108. Typically, in these home-and-home sets, the team that lost the front-end usually comes back to win the back-end.

Not so fast, my friends!

The SK system is a big fan of the Rockets, who are looking to propel themselves back up to the No. 3 seed of the Western Conference playoff picture momentarily. After all, they are 9-1 against the Kings over the last 10 meetings. Not only that but Houston’s star player, James Harden, will look to make one of his last gasps at the NBA’s MVP award after Giannis Antetokounmpo had another memorable performance against the Brooklyn Nets last night.

SK’s system also likes the total to go under 226, as 16 of Houston’s 20 games have suffered that same fate since the All-Star break – the same can be said about Sacramento, which has done the same in five of its last seven. The Kings are tied for the second-fastest pace in the NBA, but Harden and the Rockets will slow it down with the league’s fifth-slowest tempo.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors – Total: 219.5

The Golden State Warriors had a long string of games hitting under the total during March, but this game, which could ultimately determine the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, should have them clicking on all cylinders against the Denver Nuggets. Both teams (GS: #1, DEN: #8) find themselves in the Top-10 of the league’s offensive efficiency ranking, and two of the three games between the teams have gone well over the 219.5 total we’ll see tonight. While Denver has struggled a bit on offense of late, we’ll look for Golden State to lead the way and take us to the promised land. After all, the Warriors have netted at least 120 points in three of their last four games.

NBA and NCAAM Betting Preview for Thursday, March 28

Over the next few days, Spread Knowledge will combine the two levels of hoops into one article. It’s all about time consumption in these trying times, folks. The NBA usually only has a few games on the Thursday night schedule but, for whatever reason, they’re trying to go head-to-head against the NCAA Tournament. And this sucks because the NBA game has some excellent matchups tonight with playoff positioning at the forefront. Nonetheless, it’s a great night to make a butt groove in your favorite seat in the house.

Let’s take a look at the top hoops picks from the Spread Knowledge system this evening…

NBA BETTING PREVIEW

[8:05 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Clippers (-9/+342 ML) at Milwaukee Bucks

It’s definitely a longshot but there’s some nice value in taking the LA Clippers, who have won 11 of their last 12 games. The Milwaukee Bucks have won four of their last five, but find themselves in a peculiar spot heading into the NBA Playoffs. Milwaukee owns a four-game lead for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but injuries to Malcolm Brogdon, Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic may force Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer to be somewhat judicious with the minutes of his key players. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already stated that he wants no part of this limitation, but it’s important to remember that the playoffs are what really matters here. The Clippers are safely in the playoffs, but they’re not too far away from grabbing home-court advantage for the first round. You could make the argument that LA has more at stake tonight and a nine-point spread is somewhat disrespectful to a team as talented as this.

The Spread Knowledge system likes LA on the moneyline, but you could also take the easier route and bet them at +9.

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 217 – Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets (-208)

The Houston Rockets have defeated the Denver Nuggets in nine of their last 10 meetings, and the Spread Knowledge system likes them to make it 10 of 11. Houston still has an outside chance of getting the two-seed in the Western Conference, but it’ll need a bit of a collapse from Denver down the stretch – and that doesn’t seem likely at this point. Still, the Rockets are clamoring to get that three-seed and avoid the Golden State Warriors before the Western Conference Finals.

Not only does the SK system like the Rockets in this game tonight, but it is also quite fond of the under on the total. And for good reason, as Houston games have gone under the total in 11 of the last 13 while Denver games have suffered the same fate in 16 of its last 19.

NCAAM BETTING PREVIEW

[7:29 p.m. EST] Tennessee (-2/-149 ML) vs. Purdue – played in Louisville, KY

We’re at the point in the college basketball season where everyone has put together a mini-winning streak, so we have to rely on the numbers and matchups. This is where the Tennessee Volunteers should excel, as they have the advantage in point differential and field goal percentage. Not only that, but Tennessee is just a more athletic team than the Purdue Boilermakers, who have lost in the Sweet 16 round in each of their last two seasons. The Spread Knowledge system endears the Vols on the moneyline in this one, but you could risk less money if you take them with the two-point spread.

[9:39 p.m. EST] Michigan (-1.5/-135 ML) vs. Texas Tech – played in Anaheim, CA

The Michigan Wolverines have been just fine… you know, as long as they’re not playing their rival Michigan State Spartans. In fact, the Wolverines are 8-3 in their last 11 games, with the only three losses coming to those pesky Spartans. Speaking of pesky, that’s exactly what Michigan will be facing in the Texas Tech Red Raiders tonight, who are a mirror image of the tough defensive-minded unit – in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, Texas Tech is No. 1 and Michigan is No. 2. This is probably why the spread is so low (in favor of Michigan by 1.5 points), but nonetheless, the Spread Knowledge system is in favor of Michigan, who has plenty of experience in playing these high-profile games over the last few seasons.

[9:57 p.m. EST] Oregon (+8.5/+330 ML) vs. Virginia – played in Louisville, KY

These Oregon Ducks are on one helluva run right now, winning 10 straight games en route to landing here in the Sweet 16 against the Virginia Cavaliers. We all know UVA’s stigma – defense, defense, defense, and the Ducks will have to overcome one of the toughest units in the country in order to move on to the Elite 8. It is interesting, though, as Oregon has scored at least 70 points in 10 of its last 11 games, while UVA hasn’t allowed 70 points in each of its last 12 games. Something has to give, and the Spread Knowledge system is quacking in jubilation, going with the Ducks for the upset tonight!

DON’T FORGET ABOUT MLB!!!

We unleashed the MLB portion of the SK Product today and it already produced a win on the over in the Baltimore Orioles-New York Yankees game — depending on what your total was. Some had it at 8.5, some had it at 9. If not, it was a push — no loss of money there.