Tag: Colorado Rockies

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 211-154-10 (58%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:40 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Arizona D-Backs (1.5-run line: -102)
COL: Chi Chi Rodriguez – R (0-4, 6.57 ERA/1.78 WHIP)
ARZ: Zac Gallen – R (2-3, 2.58 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Diamondbacks-Rockies game. We’re taking the D-Backs on the 1.5-run line, saving a little more than $100 by taking them on the moneyline.

Vegas already put a stamp on this game, giving the Rockies a -0.4 IRT (implied run total) decrease, which is tied for the highest on today’s slate.

Zac Gallen is the key here. Granted, he did allow the most hits (9) in a start of his young MLB career against this same Rockies team, but that game was played at Coors Field – you have to take those performances with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, Gallen only allowed two runs and Arizona walked away with the 9-3 victory.

Whether it’s been the D-Backs or Rays that Gallen has pitched for this season, we’ve been on his side more often than not. In nine starts this season, Gallen has allowed more than two runs only once this season.

Gallen should benefit from facing a Rockies team that has a below-average .304 weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Chi Chi Gonzalez may have a fun name to say, but his pitching skills don’t live up to that level of excitement. He won’t last too long into this start before we see the Rockies’ bullpen, and that’s just good news all around for the D-Backs. In fact, the Rockies have lost every single one of Gonzalez’s starts this season, all of them coming by two runs or more.

All in all, we’ve got a huge mismatch of starting pitchers here and that’ll lead us to cover the run-line in this one.

* Final Score Prediction * Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 – Colorado Rockies: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 211-151-10 (58.3%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 46-19-4 record over the last 69 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[3:05 p.m. EST] Over 14 – Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (4-4, 4.42 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-3, 6.75 ERA/1.60 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the total on the Marlins-Rockies game on Sunday. We’ve got an A-grade for the total going over in this one, with plenty of reasons to believe so. The weather in Denver should be perfect for hitting, with temperatures in the 90s for most of the day.

Hot temperatures + bats + baseballs = home runs.

Vegas already puts its stamp on this game by increasing the game total from 13.0 to 14.0 and IRTs (implied run totals) for both teams – Rockies: +0.9, Marlins: +0.2. Colorado initially had the second-highest IRT to start the day, but its 8.1 IRT and +0.9 IRT increase are both tops on the slate now. Miami’s 6.1 IRT is the third-highest for any team on today’s entire schedule of games.

After a handful of dominant outings to begin his MLB career, it looks like the league has finally figured out Jordan Yamamoto. The rookie right-hander has now allowed at least four runs in each of his last five outings.

The Rockies have scored at least six runs in four of the last six games, so it’s good to see their offense getting back on track. We mentioned it in Friday’s article, but Charlie Blackmon’s home/road splits (obviously favoring him at Coors Field) are truly something else. With Blackmon setting the table, look for the Rockies to put a respectable number of runs on the board and get us comfortably over the total.

Peter Lambert has not been good at Coors Field, posting a 7.01 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over 34 2/3 innings of work. While the Marlins have only scored four runs in their trip to Denver so far, it’s quite telling for them to have the third-highest IRT on the entire slate.

Look for the Rockies to be the catalyst in getting us over the total, but we should definitely expect the Marlins to chip away at this as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – Miami Marlins: 7

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Friday, August 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 208-148-10 (58%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 43-16-4 record over the last 63 premium picks — these do not include free picks. We had a tough Wednesday, going winless (with one push) on our for premium picks. It’s a great day to bounce back!

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

 

[8:40 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -132)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-10, 4.44 ERA/1.44 WHIP)
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-8, 4.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Rockies beating the Marlins by a healthy margin. After all, Vegas made a massive statement on this game, giving Colorado a +0.7 IRT (implied run total) increase while Miami received a slight -0.1 decrease.

Jon Gray takes the ball for the Rockies, and he’ll face a Marlins team with anemic .258 weighted on-base average, .106 ISO (power metric) and 28.7% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Granted, Miami did a number on Walker Buehler and Los Angeles yesterday, but we all know how crazy afternoon baseball can be. We certainly won’t hold a misnomer of a performance like that against Buehler, and we should also not get too giddy about the Marlins’ offense after that either.

Not to mention, the Rockies had Thursday off while the Marlins had to make the long trip out to the high altitude of Denver. There have been plenty of teams that struggled in this scenario before – we’ll take our chances and bet one of the worst teams in baseball will do just the same, if not, even more.

Sandy Alcantara had a good performance against the Rockies earlier this season, but that was in Miami – pitching at Coors Field is a much more difficult task. Not only that, but the Rockies have a respectable .342 weighted on-base average and are only striking out 16.2% of the time against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

The Marlins allowed 31 runs in three games against the Dodgers prior to flying out to Denver. That certainly doesn’t bode well for a team moving into a much more friendly hitter’s environment.

A big key for the Rockies’ success tonight will be leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon, who owns massive home/road splits. At Coors Field, he is hitting .411 (.461 OBP) while only posting a .252 average (.287 OBP) on the road. When Blackmon is getting on base, this Rockies team is a lot more dynamic and that really sets the table for guys like Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado behind him.

Look for the Rockies to put a world of hurt on the Marlins tonight, leading us to victory in this bet.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – Miami Marlins: 4

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 204-142-9 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 40-10-3 record over the last 53 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!
[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Zac Gallen – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-8, 4.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has been excellent at picking out these unders from games at Coors Field, the greatest hitting park known to man. Well, here we are, back for more with reasons to believe that we’ll see a lower-than-usual total on this game.

Vegas already made adjustments on this game, lowering the game total from 12.5 to 12.0 and decreasing the IRTs (implied runs totals) for both sides – D-Backs: -0.3, Rockies: -0.2.

We’ve pretty much been on Zac Gallen at every step of the way on his MLB journey, and thank goodness for that. The rookie right-hander has been nothing short of magnificent in seven starts with the Marlins and in his D-Backs debut last week, where he threw five innings of one-hit shutout ball with six strikeouts.

In each of Gallen’s last six starts, the game total has never risen above seven runs.
The Rockies’ offense (or team, as a whole) hasn’t been great, especially against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting less-than-average .306 weighted on-base average and .136 ISO (power metric) numbers.

Jon Gray has looked a lot better of late, even though the traditional numbers might not tell that story. For whatever reason, he really struggled against a mess of a Giants team in two starts and then had a bunch of good outings around that one. However, in Gray’s last outing, the defense let him down big time as only three of the seven runs he allowed were earned.

Gray has only allowed six runs in 16 1/3 innings this season against the Rockies, holding them to three runs or fewer in each of his three starts. The D-Backs’ offense has slowed down a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, posting .278 weighted on-base average and .160 ISO numbers.

All in all, we’ve got two starting pitchers that are fully capable of shutting down two struggling offenses and leading us to the under in victorious fashion.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Thursday, August 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 196-137-8 (59%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 32-5-1 record over the last 38 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies (ML: -108) at San Diego Padres
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-7, 4.03 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (6-8, 4.43 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Padres-Rockies game, with the visitors coming out victorious. After all, Colorado has managed to win six of the nine meetings between the two teams this season.

Jon Gray has a fantastic history against the Padres, going 10-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them in 18 career starts. This season, he’s 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP versus San Diego in four outings (three starts).

Other than two blowup outings against the Giants, Gray has done quite well in his last nine starts, allowing three runs or fewer. It’s such a baffling feat, considering San Francisco has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Nevertheless, Gray shouldn’t run into that problem tonight. The Padres’ offense has anemic .261 weighted on-base average, .147 ISO (power metric) and 30.3% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

For yesterday’s free pick, we had the over in the Padres-Mariners game, hoping the Padres would be able to smack Yusei Kikuchi around T-Mobile Park. If they couldn’t get it done in that great of a scenario, that should give us plenty of optimism for Gray to get it done tonight.

Eric Lauer has been consistently knocked around by this Rockies team, going 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in four career starts. This season, it’s been even worse, allowing a total of 18 hits, four walks and 13 runs against Colorado with an opposing batting average of .529!

Both of these teams have been struggling of late, but we can be more compassionate to the Rockies and the difficulty of their schedule. Not to mention, the number of marquee pitchers they’ve faced during this run of losses.

All in all, we’re looking for Gray to outduel Lauer, and give the Rockies the victory in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, July 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 146-119-6 (55.1%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
COL: Kyle Freeland – L (2-6, 7.39 ERA/1.61 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (7-5, 4.93 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The Yankees’ 7.0 IRT (implied run total) is tops on tonight’s slate, and both teams were actually given a +0.3 increase, which usually means good things for the offense. Not to mention, the humid temperatures in New York tonight will give it a feel of 100 degrees – then again, it really will be hot. These hot temperatures are excellent for ball flight, and we should definitely see plenty of homers in this game.

Kyle Freeland is having a disastrous 2019 and things have gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. The lefty has allowed at least five runs in six of his last eight starts, including each of the last three.

In the series prior to this one, the Yankees had battled hard with a tough Rays team. Now, facing the Rockies, things should open up a lot more in terms of the scoring. After all, Colorado has allowed at least eight runs in five of its last six games.

J.A. Happ has been much worse at home this season, posting a 5.98 ERA and opposing batting average of .294 in 10 starts. In comparison, the lefty has a 3.77 ERA and opposing batting average of .224 on the road. Part of the reason for this problem is that Happ is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and that certainly doesn’t play well in such a small ballpark like Yankee Stadium – especially with the weather conditions we’ll see tonight.

While the Rockies were stymied by Giants pitching before heading to New York, it should do them some good to get out on the road. Typically, when teams are in a big funk, it’s always good to get a change of scenery to shake things up. Look for some of these big boppers like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story to have a big night in The Bronx.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (5-10, 3.25 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-6, 7.01 ERA/1.59 WHIP)

Marcus Stroman doesn’t like Canada. OK, maybe that’s a little strong, but his 2.98 ERA on the road this season certainly paints a nice picture for the Blue Jays. Not to mention, he did skill the Tigers for seven innings of shutout ball while allowing only two hits earlier this season. Overall, the current Detroit roster is hitting a combined .140 with a .222 on-base percentage in 63 career plate appearances against Stroman.

The Tigers’ offense ranks dead-last in MLB for weighted on-base average (.284) against right-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, they have only scored five runs over the last three games. We can add almost any stat in the book here to show how bad Detroit has been offensively, but it has gone through enough woes this season already.

Jordan Zimmermann has certainly struggled this season, but his best performance of the season did come against the Blue Jays. The veteran righty allowed one hit, no walks and no runs over seven innings back on March 28. Given Zimmermann’s struggles of late, I’m not expecting a performance like that one, but one that keeps the total down on this game.

The Blue Jays have played a very difficult schedule since the All-Star break, with road matchups against the Yankees and Red Sox, but have certainly held their own. Now that they get to play a lesser opponent like the Tigers, they should have a much easier time and get the win in the process.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going under is our strongest play on the entire slate. After all, all four of the meetings between the teams earlier this season saw the total go under. We’ve also got plenty of love for the Blue Jays with Stroman in a road start.

* Final Score Prediction * Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (3-2, 5.22 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (7-8, 4.60 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

There are certain matchups you see sometimes that make you go “Oh… my… goodness!!!” The Angels facing Mike Leake is certainly one of them, and that’s part of the reason the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going over as one of our strongest plays on the night.

Nine of the 14 meetings between the two teams this season have done just that.

The current Angels roster is hitting a combined .368 off Leake with a .413 on-base percentage and 1.019 OPS in 281 plate appearances. In three starts against Los Angeles this season, Leake has allowed 19 hits, 13 runs (10 earned) and six homers over 13 2/3 innings. When the two teams faced last Friday night, the Angels tagged him for eight hits and seven runs (four earned) before the first inning was over.

It’s unclear whether Jaime Barria will start the game or come in shortly after a reliever pitches the first innings. He has started the game in each of his last two outings for the Angels, but it’s a been a mixed bag overall in how the righty has been used this season. Nonetheless, I’ve never been a big fan of Barria, and he’s certainly capable of getting lit up tonight. Barria’s 10.03 ERA and 2.14 WHIP on the road this season do bode well for us getting over the 10-run total tonight, though.

The Mariners have been struggling as a team, but they did have an off-day yesterday and that could give them a nice recharging of the batteries. I don’t think anything will help their pitching at this point, but this offense still has some decent pieces looking to make a name for themselves before the trade deadline.

All in all, the Angels are in a good place offensively and absolutely crushed Mariners pitching in all three games last weekend. Look for them to do more of that against a pitcher they’ve seen well over the course of time. Barria could certainly contribute some effectiveness to the over here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 140-113-6 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-5, 8.36 ERA/1.75 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (3-3, 4.00 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

It has been a rough go of things for the Tigers against the Indians, losing nine of the 10 meetings this season, including each of the last eight. In fact, Cleveland has outscored Detroit by a total of 63-27 in those contests. Tonight’s -260 moneyline number for the Indians matches their highest of the season, so I feel comfortable taking the 1.5-run line here and saving some money to lay.

Things won’t get any better for the Tigers tonight as they send Ryan Carpenter out to the hill. The lefty has a 7.95 ERA/1.73 WHIP in 14 career MLB appearances, including a 12.38 ERA/2.50 WHIP in two starts against the Indians. Carpenter has allowed at least seven hits in six of his eight starts, and that’ll be a dangerous proposition to do such a thing against such a talented lineup.

Since the beginning of July, Cleveland has posted seven runs or more five times, with all of those big totals coming against lesser-talented teams – just like the one it’ll see tonight. Detroit’s bullpen owns the fifth-worst ERA (5.01) in baseball and the team, as a whole, has allowed exactly eight runs in three of its four games since the All-Star break.

On the other side, Zach Plesac has been excellent to start his MLB career, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his first eight starts. The rookie right-hander had a great outing against the Tigers back on June 23, allowing five hits, one walk and one run, while inducing a season-high 10 ground-ball outs over seven innings en route to an 8-3 Indians’ victory.

The Tigers’ offense has been struggling all season, but especially against right-handed pitching, as they own the second-worst wOBA (.286) in baseball in that split – just a fraction above the MLB-worst Marlins.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -175)
PIT: Dario Agrazal – R (2-0, 2.81 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-6, 4.64 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

We’ve had glimpses of Jack Flaherty displaying the type of dominance he’s capable of, but he hasn’t done it consistently. If that last outing before the break – allowing two hits, one walk and one run over seven innings – against a red-hot Giants lineup is any indication of where Flaherty is heading, we’re in for a treat tonight.

Not only has Flaherty pitched better at home this season, but he’s also done well against the Pirates lifetime. The righty has a 3-1 record to go along with a 2.48 ERA/1.00 WHIP in five career starts.

The Pirates have lost four straight since the All-Star break, while the Cardinals have won their last three games. Not to mention, Pittsburgh has only scored a total of 10 runs in those four games.

Dario Agrazal has been great for the Pirates since making his debut on June 15. However, he’s shown a huge weakness early on, allowing right-handed batters to hit for .353 average, compared to lefties hitting .148. The Cardinals lineup will have plenty of right-handed power coming at Agrazal tonight, so look for the rookie to take the first loss of his career.

All in all, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions. We like the Cardinals to continue their winning ways over a struggling Pirates team. Vegas did give the Cardinals a nice +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is actually the highest for any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 – Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (1-0, 5.40 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (2-5, 5.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Whenever the Royals and White Sox have gotten together this season, runs have not been showing up on the scoreboard. In fact, nine of the 12 meetings between the teams have gone under the total – just as it did last night. We’re looking for more of the same tonight, as the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going under in this game as the top-rated play on the entire slate.

Glenn Sparkman may not be the greatest pitcher in baseball, but he certainly knows what he’s doing at Kauffman Stadium. The righty has a 2-2 record to go along with a 2.19 ERA/1.11 WHIP in nine appearances there this season. Sparkman’s last three outings at home have been against quality opponents (Twins, White Sox, Red Sox), and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of those.

The White Sox offense has been dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .292 xwOBA (quality of contact) and .126 ISO (power metric). For reference, we want to see xwOBA in the .350s and higher, while ISO is preferred in the .200s or better. Sparkman won’t get many strikeouts, but perhaps he can see an uptick since the White Sox have been striking out around 25% of the time over that span against righties.

Five of the last six White Sox games have gone under the total, and their offense is a big reason why as they posted no more than three runs in any of those contests.

Dylan Cease made his debut for Chicago on July 3, his only MLB outing up to this point. He allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six Tigers, so there’s not a ton to go off there. However, Cease should certainly benefit from facing a Royals lineup that has similar .293 xwOBA and .137 ISO numbers to his own team’s offense against righties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the Royals are striking out just over 25% of the time against right-handed pitching over that span.

Four of the last six Royals games have gone under the total, with the only two overs coming against a weak collection of Tigers’ arms.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 4 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14.5 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-9, 6.42 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-1, 6.67 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

We missed the boat on the total going over in the second half of last night’s doubleheader, but Vegas is liking the bats to get back to action tonight. The game total has increased from 14.0 to 14.5, with both teams getting a +0.3 increase on their IRT (implied run total) – usually a good sign that offense is on the horizon. After playing two games yesterday, expect each team’s bullpen to be less effective than usual.

Drew Pomeranz has gotten absolutely ripped away from Oracle Park this season, posting a 1-4 record and 9.76 ERA/1.99 WHIP in seven starts. While he has done a decent job against the Rockies, Pomeranz has yet to face them at Coors Field.

Colorado’s offense has some issues it’s working through, especially after scoring a total of three runs in yesterday’s doubleheader, but this is a great spot to get back on the good foot. The star-studded lineup including Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story is not built to have long stretches of ineffectiveness.

Peter Lambert goes for the Rockies, and his brief time in the MLB and has been nothing short of miserable. Over his last four starts (17 2/3 innings), the rookie has allowed 30 hits, 20 runs and eight homers.

The Giants’ offense has been rocking and rolling, with at least seven runs in eight of the last 12 games. Prior to the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader, Rockies’ pitching had allowed 45 runs in the previous three contests.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going over is our second-strongest play of the night. Granted, we’re shooting for a sky-high total, but we’ve got plenty of reasons to know it’ll come through.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – San Francisco Giants: 9

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 139-111-6 (55.6%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (ML: -155)
TB: Blake Snell – L (5-7, 4.70 ERA/1.29 WHIP)
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-4, 4.01 ERA/1.43 WHIP)

Blake Snell has certainly not lived up to the billing in the season after winning the AL Cy Young award. This has been especially true against the Yankees, and this will be the fourth time they’ve seen him in a span of 11 starts. We’ve talked about this more than a few times – the more a team sees a pitcher, the more comfortable they get.

While he does have 26 strikeouts in 17 innings against the Yankees this season, Snell has also allowed 17 hits, nine walks and 10 runs in four starts. Not to mention, the lefty’s 2-4 record and 6.48 ERA on the road has been much worse than his 3-3 record and 3.17 ERA at Tropicana Field. In fact, Snell’s last four road starts have seen him allow a total of 25 hits, eight walks and 20 runs over a span of 14 innings.

James Paxton has a fantastic matchup against a Rays team that owns the third-highest K-rate (26%) and ninth-worst wOBA (.310) against left-handed pitching this season. That was never more evident than in Paxton’s last start when he fanned 11 Rays and only allowed two runs over six innings.

Paxton had an uncharacteristically-bad start against the Blue Jays back on June 26, but four of his last five starts have seen him allow two runs or fewer.

The Yankees are on an excellent run, winning 18 of their last 23 games. They also have a 31-10 record against AL East opponents and a magnificent 15-2 record at home when favored by -125 to -175 on the moneyline this season.

According to our graded picks today, the Yankees (on moneyline or 1.5-run line) have the best trends on today’s entire schedule of games. It also likes the total going under, considering Yankees’ games have done that in seven of the last nine while Rays’ games have done the same in four of the last six.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 5 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
ATL: Max Fried – L (9-4, 4.29 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (4.01 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

With two talented offenses going up against one another, it may seem like a crazy idea to take the under, but that’s exactly what we’re doing here. And Vegas is on our side, decreasing the game total from 10.5 to 10.0, with both sides having their IRT (implied run total) decrease by -0.3 runs, which is tied for highest on today’s entire slate.

When the teams faced off in May, two of the three games went under the total. Also, Braves’ games have gone under the total in 14 of the last 20 while the Brewers offense has just been sputtering since the end of June.

Max Fried wasn’t effective in his last two starts before the All-Star break, but he’s a young kid and the time off could certainly do him some good. The lefty has looked sharp for the most part this season, and his May 17 performance against these same Brewers was nothing short of masterful. In six innings, Fried allowed only two hits and two walks while not coughing up any runs.

The Brewers’ offense hasn’t been great recently against lefties either. Over the last 21 days, Milwaukee owns a very pedestrian .321 wOBA, .145 ISO and 27.2% K-rate against southpaws.

Adrian Houser probably won’t be the reason this game goes under the total, but he can sure help us out a bit. The righty’s splits have been unbelievably tilted, with him posting a 1.88 ERA at Miller Park, compared to a 5.08 ERA on the road. While the Braves have been winning a lot of games, they have scored only four runs or fewer in four of the last six.

Atlanta has been playing a lot of low-scoring games lately, so that plays right into our hands and exactly what Vegas is thinking with the decreased game totals and IRTs.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 4 – Milwaukee Brewers: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Dereck Rodriguez – R (5.27 ERA/1.44 WHIP)
COL: Chi Chi Gonzalez – R (6.00 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Well, the first game of today’s day-night doubleheader is certainly where we want to be for the second part. At the time of this writing being released, the Giants are up 16-2 in the seventh inning and the Rockies left German Marquez out there to take a good portion of this thumping.

Nonetheless, the Rockies will likely need to use some more arms to close out this game, and they just announced Chi Chi Gonzalez as the starter for tonight’s game. While he doesn’t have a ton of MLB experience, Gonzalez has issued plenty of walks, and putting numerous guys on base for one of the hottest offenses in baseball doesn’t seem to bode well for his chances.

This is a Giants’ offense that has now scored at least seven runs in eight of their last 11 games. It is truly unfathomable to believe that this could ever happen. Especially, with Evan Longoria on the injured list now.

While the Rockies’ offense looks awful in the first game today, you have to expect them to come back with something strong tonight. Prior to today’s debacle, the Rockies’ offense posted a total of 19 runs over the previous two days against a strong batch of Reds’ arms. Rodriguez has been getting ripped with great regularity this season, so guys like Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond and David Dahl can certainly make life difficult on him.

Vegas loves the idea of more runs being scored in the second half of the doubleheader. The game total spiked from 13.5 to 14.0, with both teams’ IRTs (implied run totals) increasing by +0.3. Also, today’s first part of the doubleheader was the third-straight game in which 17 runs (and they’re still going) have been scored at Coors Field.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 10 – San Francisco Giants: 8

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 28

!!! ATTENTION READERS !!! 

Just wanted to give everyone a heads up, but there won’t be any written articles tomorrow (6/29), next Friday (7/5) and next Saturday (7/6) due to prior commitments. Sorry for the inconvenience. All computer-generated picks will still be calculated and the site will be up and running on those days as usual.

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 125-106-4 (54%) *


[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
PIT: Chris Archer – R (3-6, 5.56 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.88 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

The Brewers’ offense surprisingly sputtered in their recent three-game series against the Mariners, but just watching yesterday’s game it was evident that bad luck played a part. Numerous hard-hit balls managed to find leather or landed a few steps from the wall.

Luckily, they’ll be facing a pitcher in Chris Archer who hasn’t been at his best. In fact, the right has allowed a homer in 11 of his 13 starts this season and owns a massive 8.42 ERA on the road. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Archer has allowed at least four runs and two homers in each of his three starts against Milwaukee.

On the other side, Jhoulys Chacin has been getting rocked all season. His last outing against the Pirates (on May 31) was downright brutal, as the righty allowed six hits/four walks and seven runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Good news for the Pirates – and the over – is that Brewers’ reliever Josh Hader pitched the final two innings yesterday to get the save. After pitching two innings the previous day, Hader has not entered the next day’s game once in his career.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a B+ grade on the over in this game, given how many runs these two teams have put up against each other this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 7

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-110) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-1, 1.27 ERA/0.84 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (6-5, 4.91 ERA/1.57 WHIP)

In last night’s 12-8 slugfest, we saw exactly how helpful these hot temperatures at Coors Field are for the hitters. We’ve got the same conditions for tonight’s game, and that’s why Vegas has dramatically increased the total from 11.0 to 12.5, with the Dodgers (+0.9) and Rockies (+0.7) getting massive IRT increases.

There’s more reason to believe the Dodgers will add more runs to the game total. After all, Antonio Senzatela has been beaten over the head this season, especially at Coors field with a 6.21 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Senzatela did pitch well against the Dodgers last week, but we’ve seen plenty of teams capitalize offensively facing the same pitcher twice in a span of less than a week.

Hyun-Jin Ryu also faced the Rockies in his last start, allowing three runs (one earned) over six innings. However, Ryu has a 1-4 record over his last six start against Colorado, and it’s been even worse at Coors Field. In his last two starts there, the lefty has allowed 15 hits/six walks and 15 runs (10 earned) over six innings.

Just as the case was last night, the two bullpens will certainly be a factor and ultimately decide this one. In the month of June, the Dodgers’ bullpen has the second-best ERA (2.84) while the Rockies own the seventh-worst (5.46).

The SK Trend Confidence rating is strong on the Dodgers tonight in every fashion. After last night’s win, the Dodgers remain a perfect 7-0 against the Rockies this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 12 – Colorado Rockies: 10

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-112) – St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
STL: Michael Wacha – R (5-3, 5.59 ERA/1.67 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (5-7, 4.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

There has only been a total of 9.0 at Petco Park twice this season, which is quite telling for a ballpark that doesn’t have the stigma of being a hitter’s park. For what it’s worth, both times the total finished on or above the mark. Vegas adjusted the total from 8.5 to 9.0 and both teams obviously got an IRT increase as well – Cardinals: +0.2, Padres: +0.3.

A good reason for the increased total is the Padres’ recent tear of offense, with 28 runs over the last three games. In the month of June, Padres’ games have gone over the total 15 times in 23 games with two pushes mixed in there.

Michael Wacha has been hit or miss lately, allowing six runs or more in three of his last six starts. The Padres will run a mostly right-handed lineup out at Wacha tonight, and he’s been getting crushed from that side of the plate. Opposing righties are walloping him for .338 batting average, .406 on-base percentage and 1.025 OPS this season. Of the 14 homers Wacha has allowed, 12 of them have come from righties.

While the Cardinals haven’t necessarily clobbered the ball of late, facing the Padres can certainly do them some good. Eric Lauer will have to deal with a nearly all right-handed lineup to deal with, including Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, who are both 4-for-5 against him lifetime – Goldy has two homers while Ozuna has one.

If all of that wasn’t enough, San Diego’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.31) in the month of June – only the Mets and Orioles have done worse.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 4

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 124-106-4 (54%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -120) at Miami Marlins
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (8-4, 3.79 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-6, 3.51 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Stephen Strasburg has handled the Marlins with relative ease over the course of his career, going 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 32 career starts – the Nationals are 23-9 in those games. This year’s version of the Marlins is a lot worse, especially of late, with a .269 wOBA and .099 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

The road has been much more kind to Strasburg this season, as his 2.92 ERA is much better there than at Nationals Park, where it sits at 4.71. In fact, the Nationals are a whopping 25-8 in road games which Strasburg has started since the beginning of last season.

Sandy Alcantara has had a rough go of it against the Nationals over his career, losing all three of his starts and accumulating a 9.00 ERA/2.46 WHIP. The top four hitters in Washington’s lineup (Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto) have particularly given Alcantara trouble, combining to go 15-for-32 against him.

Recently, Alcantara has been allowing loads of baserunners – 22 of them in his last 13 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, the Phillies and Pirates couldn’t take advantage in those games, but we’ll give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt tonight.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the Nationals on the 1.5-run line, for all of the reasons listed above.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 (-120) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (8-1, 2.96 ERA/0.88 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-0, 5.85 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Walker Buehler has been fantastic in the month of June with a 3-0 record, 0.87 ERA/0.45 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. His last outing came against these same Rockies, going the distance allowing two runs (on two solo homers) while striking out 16.

Buehler has made eight career starts against the Rockies and gone 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA/0.81 WHIP. In his last four starts against Colorado, the righty has allowed 10 hits/six walks and only five runs (three earned) in a total 26 2/3 innings.

The Rockies’ offense hasn’t played at Coors Field since Trevor Story went down with the thumb injury, but they have an average of only 3.6 runs per game in the seven afterward. Not to mention, Colorado owns an anemic .274 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, thus alluding to the lack of quality contact.

After two solid outings to begin his career, Peter Lambert has now coughed up 16 hits and 11 runs over his last eight innings of work. Lambert has been getting hit harder by left-handed bats and four of the first five hitters in the Dodgers’ lineup are projected to be from that side.

Lastly, the difference between these two bullpens over the last 14 days is quite significant. Over that span, the Rockies’ pen owns the fourth-worst ERA (6.62) while the Dodgers’ has the fifth-best (3.00).

The SK Trend Confidence rating has strong grades on the total going under and the Dodgers in both fashions, moneyline and 1.5-run line. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 against Colorado going into tonight’s matchup.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3