Tag: Cincinnati Reds

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, April 27 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[2:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -116)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-1, 8.59 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (3-1, 2.97 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios pitching at Target Field. This is a guy who loves sleeping in his own bed and getting that good home cooking. In two home starts this season, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing only six hits, two walks and two runs while striking out 17 over 14 1/3 innings. In fact, he is 20-5 when pitching in Minnesota since 2017.

For the Orioles, it’ll be Dan Straily taking the mound, and he has been nowhere near as efficient as his counterpart this season. Straily, who has surrendered seven homers over 14 2/3 innings this season, will be facing a deadly Twins lineup that is tied for fifth-most in MLB – despite playing the fewest games of any team. Not to mention, Minnesota hit five homers last night against Baltimore pitching.

The scene is set this afternoon for a comfortable Twins victory, so we’ll take them on the 1.5-run line and only lay -116 as opposed to the massive -260 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (0-2, 3.52 ERA)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-1, 5.89 ERA)

The Reds exploded for 12 runs last night and will have a great chance to start another carousel around the basepaths against Dakota Hudson, who has a massive 2.09 WHIP this season. Not to mention, he has allowed eight homers over 18 1/3 innings of work. With the wind blowing out to left field at about 14-16 mph during the game, this could definitely be problematic for Hudson and the Cardinals if he continues those lackluster ways.

Tyler Mahle takes the hill for Cincy, coming off two rough outings out West, where he allowed 18 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. Just like Hudson, if he continues to allow baserunners to get aboard, we could see some big blasts that bring those guys around to home plate.

I do feel like the Reds come back with another victory in this one, but you would have to expect the Cardinals to put up a good fight after getting embarrassed at home last night – that doesn’t happen often.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[3:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (2-1, 2.77 ERA)

The A’s have not been able to figure out Blue Jays’ pitching, only scoring eight runs over the four matchups this season. And it won’t get any easier today as Aaron Sanchez takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA. This will only be the second start at Rogers Centre for Sanchez this season, but we’re looking for him to be quite comfortable in the friendly home confines.

The lefty Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, and he has been able to limit opposing hitters to one home run over 26 2/3 innings this season. Anderson has been able to wiggle his way out of a few jams early on, but it’s a good sign that his control has been intact, allowing two walks or fewer in four of his five starts.

The IRT in this game came down a half-run to nine, so Vegas is thinking both starters should be quite effective in this matchup. I’ll have to agree and put my money on the under this afternoon.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, April 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We’re back and fully recharged from the Betting on Sports America Conference in Secaucus, NJ. A big thanks go out to everyone that set up the great event and the attendees that stopped by the SpreadKnowledge booth. You’re all welcome for the orange pens!

There might be two games (Brewers-Mets & Marlins-Phillies) threatened by the inclement weather but plenty of other action going on around MLB tonight for us to take advantage of.

[7:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (2-2, 8.28 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-3, 1.76 ERA)

The current Blue Jays’ roster hasn’t seen much of Mike Fiers, but when they have – oh my goodness. Toronto’s roster has a combined .362 batting average and 1.005 OPS in 49 career plate appearances, which is mind-blowing, considering Justin Smoak’s 2-for-12 (with 6 Ks) mark is holding the numbers back somewhat. Fiers has just flat out sucked over his last three starts, allowing six runs in each of them and a total of 23 hits and five homers over the last 10 innings. Yikes!

Marcus Stroman hasn’t had the best luck, as you can see from his 1-3 record to go along with the microscopic 1.76 ERA. But he did skill this same A’s team in his last start, allowing only one run over eight innings. It is, however, a very tough proposition to be that successful against a team for the second time in as many starts.

One other factor is the MLB debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr. tonight, which should have quite an electric feel in the ballpark. I’d expect all of these hitters to be at the top of their games with the spotlight shining a little brighter than usual for an A’s-Blue Jays game. Also, both teams (A’s: +0.3, Blue Jays: +0.2) had their respective IRTs increase slightly, thus hinting to some additional offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 5 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (0-1, 5.59 ERA)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (2-1, 4.97 ERA)

With the exception of Yadier Molina (3-for-22, 4 Ks) and Kolten Wong (0-for-15, 7 Ks), a lot of these Cardinals hitters have made life a living hell for Anthony DeSclafani. In fact, their current roster holds a combined .286 batting average and .891 OPS against DeSclafani in 143 career plate appearances. Much of that is due to the big boppers on St. Louis, Matt Carpenter (9-for-22, 3 HR, 1.536 OPS) and Paul Goldschmidt (8-for-13, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 1.720 OPS).

Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the Cards, and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling from his last outing against the Mets. The 30-year-old righty only allowed four hits, two walks and two runs over eight innings – clearly his best start of the season. After losing his season debut, Mikolas has rebounded with a 2-0 record over the team’s last four starts, and the Cardinals are undefeated in each of those four starts.

Look for St. Louis to stay on the good foot and win for the fifth straight time that Mikolas starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 3 *

[9:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (1-3 3.54 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 3.95 ERA)

Apparently, the theme of the evening is pitchers facing the team they just saw in their previous start. Both of these guys pitched very well at Wrigley Field last weekend, albeit in conditions that were not favorable for offenses. In fact, every single game of last weekend’s Cubs-Diamondbacks went under the total.

Well, Vegas thinks we’ll see a much different type of game as the total has jumped from 8.5 to 9. 5 – that gives us IRT increases (Cubs: +0.6, D-Backs: +0.4) as well. And I agree in thinking we’ll see plenty of runs in the desert tonight.

While Robbie Ray usually gets a good number of strikeouts, he has allowed at least four walks in three of his five starts this season. The Cubs didn’t have an answer for him and the D-Backs bullpen last weekend, but seeing Ray for the second time in five days should give their offense the upper hand.

I’ve never been a fan of Kyle Hendricks, but he did make the D-Backs look silly with 11 strikeouts over seven innings. Once again, I do think there’s a big advantage for offenses twice within a week. Prior to that last outing against Arizona, Hendricks had allowed 14 runs (eight earned) and struck out 10 batters over 13 1/3 innings of work. Look for him to come back down to Earth tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:40 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 –  St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (0-1, 2.79 ERA)
MIL: Freddy Peralta – R (1-0, 6.91 ERA)

This will be the Redbirds’ second trip to Milwaukee already this season, and it didn’t go too well for them the first time around. The Brewers ended up winning three of the four games in that series and our Trend Confidence rating has them as the most likely team to win on the MLB slate tonight. Not to mention, the over in this game is the strongest overall play that we have on the board.

Dakota Hudson takes the hill for St. Louis, and he has put a ton of guys on base in each of his two starts this season. That’s just not a recipe for success against a Milwaukee lineup that has talent up and down the order. The Brewers are finally back home (where they are 5-2) after a tough, but short, West coast trip against the Angels and Dodgers. Look for the Brew Crew to take advantage of those extra baserunners and give Hudson more headaches.

Freddy Peralta will be starting for Milwaukee, and he has been equally as bad as Hudson. In fact, Peralta only lasted three innings in his season debut against these same Cardinals, allowing six hits, three walks and four runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
KC: Heath Fillmyer – R (0-0, 15.00 ERA)
CHW: Ervin Santana – R (0-1, 17.18 ERA)

Yes, those ERAs you see above are correct — that’s a combined 32.18 between the two of them. Yikes!

I’m going with the over in this game, considering the White Sox have hit that mark in 10 of their 14 games this season, while the Royals have done the same in 11 of their 15 games. That, coupled with the fact that both pitchers are struggling out of the gate, makes this a good night to see plenty of runs crossing the plate.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 9 – Kansas City Royals: 8 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds (+146) at Los Angeles Dodgers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (1-1, 0.92 ERA)
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (season debut)

Very, very interesting matchup at Chavez Ravine as Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut against a very talented pitcher in Luis Castillo. I’m taking the upset here and rolling with the Reds, who have a few guys making a homecoming of sorts. Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig should be ultra-motivated after getting shipped from beautiful Los Angeles to… well, Cincinnati. Be honest, you’d be upset too.

It’s quite interesting that the Dodgers don’t have a higher moneyline number, especially with Kershaw toeing the rubber. Granted, it’ll be his first start of the season, but this is just too noticeable of a number for me not to land on. Castillo has been fantastic early on with 25 strikeouts and only two runs allowed over 19 2/3 innings. A lot of people around baseball might not be too familiar with Castillo, but they certainly will be when the night is over.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[12:35 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds (-165) – Total: 8.5
MIA: Pablo Lopez – R (1-1, 6.10 ERA)
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-2, 2.89 ERA)

The Marlins’ bats are struggling mightily on this current road trip, with only eight runs over the last five games. And it’s even more disheartening that they have only posted one run at The Great American Ballpark, which is an absolute launching pad most of the time.

Gray hasn’t gotten one run of support from Reds’ bats yet this season but today could be the day against Lopez, who has shown signs of vulnerability at times this season. Being in the offensive haven that is The Great American Ballpark, that probably won’t play well for him and the rest of the Marlins on getaway day.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 6 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (+132) – Total: 9.5
OAK: Aaron Brooks – R (1-1, 4.09 ERA)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-0, 7.36 ERA)

Last season, Bundy had a 6-1 record and 2.28 ERA in day games, compared to the 2-15 mark and 7.48 ERA he posted in night games. Well, his first start during the afternoon this season didn’t go as planned, but I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on him against an A’s team that will essentially be playing this game at 9:35 a.m. on their biological clock. Granted, Oakland has had three games already here in Baltimore but playing one in the early afternoon is a much tougher task.

The Orioles’ +132 moneyline number in this game really isn’t too bad of a spot, considering the general public doesn’t really think much of them. It’s always a risk taking Baltimore, but they might catch Oakland literally sleeping in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 6 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (0-0, 3.38 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 4.08 ERA)

Bieber Fever finally got his first start of the season on Friday and looked sharp, allowing only two hits, two walks and two runs over six innings while striking out nine against the Blue Jays. Detroit is still one of the worst offensive teams to start the 2019 campaign with 37 runs in 13 games and will likely have a hard time improving today.

On the other side, it’s not like Cleveland’s bats have been much better, with only 40 runs over 12 games. Turnbull goes for the Tigers, and while he’s been average, it’s not like the Tribe’s offense should be scaring anyone at the moment.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *