Tag: Chicago Cubs

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 45-32-3 (58.4%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, -130)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (0-3, 8.33 ERA)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)

It’s been a rough start to 2019 for Ivan Nova, to say the least, allowing 48 hits and 29 runs over 31 1/3 innings. Things won’t be getting any easier as he’ll face the Indians, who have absolutely destroyed Nova lifetime. In fact, the Tribe’s current roster owns a combined .379 batting average, .446 on-base percentage and 1.082 OPS against him in 73 career plate appearances.

Trevor Bauer has suddenly become somewhat of a generous pitcher, allowing 10 walks over his last 15 innings of work. Luckily, he has handled this White Sox with relative ease since 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 outings. Not to mention, the current Pale Hose roster owns a combined .192 batting average, .242 on-base percentage and 32.6% K-rate in 175 career plate appearances against Bauer.

Because of the history with these two starting pitchers against their respective opponents, bettors will get much more value on the Indians with the 1.5 run-line at -130, as opposed to the -250 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-122) – Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
MIN: Martin Perez – L (4-0, 3.41 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-4, 2.20 ERA)

Both of these starting pitchers have had great success this season, despite the traditional numbers not looking all that glamorous. Success, of course, meaning keeping opposing runs off the scoreboard.

In fact, Martin Perez has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four outings, while Stroman has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season. Stroman’s only misnomer came in his last outing at Anaheim, but he’s a crafty veteran that rarely has two bad outings in a row. Perez should benefit from facing a Blue Jays team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

Also helping the under this game is the fact that Toronto has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last six games.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3*

[8:05 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (1-3, 4.86 ERA)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.19 ERA)

The Cubs just completed a three-game sweep over the rival Cardinals, so that brings their winning streak to seven games, and they are now 16-4 over their last 20. It shouldn’t be too hard for Chicago to continue their dominant run, facing a Miami team that has scored three runs or fewer in 18 of its last 23 games.

Cole Hamels takes the ball for the Cubbies and he’ll go up against a Marlins team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching. The former World Series MVP has been his usual dominant self, with a 1.09 WHIP, and that’s even going against tough competition like the Brewers, Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers. One of those starts, though, was versus this stagnant Miami offense and Hamels pitched seven innings of shutout ball to get the win back on April 17.

Bettors should feel quite confident going with the Cubs on the 1.5 run-line, considering Hamels has managed to get an average of eight runs of support in his six starts this season. Although the game total sits at seven, I expect Chicago to post all the runs on the scoreboard tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Miami Marlins: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 43-30-2 (59%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-122)
STL: Michael Wacha – R (2-0, 4.78 ERA)
CHC: Yu Darvish – R (2-3, 5.02 ERA)

The Cubs are hot right now, going 14-4 over their last 18 games, including wins in five straight. Michael Wacha has had plenty of troubles with the NL Central rival, as its current roster has a combined .331 batting average, .390 on-base percentage and .997 OPS against him, including 10 homers in 178 plate appearances. Anthony Rizzo is the happiest of the bunch to see Wacha, as he’s gone 20-for-42 lifetime with two doubles, three homers and only three strikeouts in 44 plate appearances.

Yu Darvish has looked much better in each of his last three starts, with a 2-1 record and 23 strikeouts over 16 2/3 innings. If he could just keep those walks down (22 in 28 2/3 innings this season), it may show that Darvish is finally back from the truly awful start he got off to this season. There is some comfort in knowing that each of his two lowest walk totals this season came in starts at Wrigley Field.

All in all, the matchup of Wacha against the Cubs could be too much for the Red Birds to overcome. Darvish is looking much better and it just adds more optimism to a Cubs team that is rolling right now.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – St. Louis Cardinals: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +102)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-3, 4.98 ERA)
CLE: Carlos Carrasco – R (2-3, 5.86 ERA)

It has been a nightmarish run for the Mariners after their amazing start to this season. After getting out to a 13-2 record, Seattle has now lost 14 of its last 19, including five straight. Mike Leake goes for the Mariners and it hasn’t gone well for him recently, allowing four runs or more in three of the last four starts and eight homers over that span – 22 innings.

Carlos Carrasco has settled down a bit after a tumultuous start to the season, and that includes a 12-strikeout performance against these same Mariners a little more than two weeks ago. Not to mention, Seattle is in a truly-bad funk right now, scoring one run or less in four of the last five.

Keeping it simple here with a shutdown performance from Carrasco and the Indians cruising to victory. Cleveland’s 1.5-run line has much more value at +102, as opposed to the -205 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-104) – New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (2-2, 5.05 ERA)
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Mets: +0.4, Brewers: +0.6) and the game total from eight to nine. Reason being, these two teams own the worst ERAs in the National League – Friday’s 3-1 win by Milwaukee was a mere misnomer.

The Mets’ offense should be able to get it going against Gio Gonzalez, who is facing them for the second time in as many starts. Gonzalez was in a lot of trouble during the first two innings of that game, but the Mets’ offense faced some bad luck by hitting into two double plays, which thwarted more runs crossing the plate.

There’s been a running joke on Zack Wheeler’s success tied to not facing the Nationals, but that notion was stumped in his last outing when he gave four runs in the second inning to the Reds. The Brewers will likely get Christian Yelich back in their lineup today and that’s just a good sign in general for offense.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 6 – Milwaukee Brewers: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 36-27-2 (57.1%) *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (-102)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (1-1, 2.37 ERA)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-0, 2.80 ERA)

Marco Gonzales has been fantastic at T-Mobile Park this season, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts there. The Cubs have been quite good against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the Top-10 of most categories, but they do have a big series against the rival Cardinals starting Friday afternoon. Perhaps, Gonzales catches a Chicago team looking ahead to its next series and continues that string of dominance at home.

Jon Lester will be pitching about 35 miles from the place he attended high school (Tacoma, WA) as a teenager — could be some distractions with family, ticket requests, etc. In his last start, Lester returned from a two-week stint on the Injured List and looked great in five limited innings against the Dodgers. However, if the Cubs hold him to about 79 pitches once again, that means their bullpen will present in this game. And that’s a good thing for the Mariners, considering the Cub’s pen has the second-worst SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days. Additionally, the Seattle’s offense has the second-best analytical metrics against left-handed pitching this season, which could certainly make life even more difficult on Lester.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, -120)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (1-0, 3.93 ERA)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (2-0, 5.68 ERA)

OK, let’s try this again. I took the Phillies on the 1.5-run line yesterday and that was an absolute disaster. Part of that could be due to the Tigers changing their starting pitcher mid-day, thus not giving Philly enough time to prepare for Spencer Turnbull.

It’s about damn time that Aaron Nola gets back on the good foot. He hasn’t had that trademark ace-start since Opening Day, although, holding the Marlins to one run in that last start still came at the expense of allowing seven hits. However, the Tigers own the third-worst power metrics (ISO: .141) and fifth-worst weighted on-base percentage (wOBA: .290) against right-handed pitching. Nola has been fantastic at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career, compiling a 25-14 record to go along with a 3.17 ERA in 50 career starts there.

The total on this game dropped an entire run, as did each team’s IRT (Tigers: -0.7, Phillies: -0.4), so I believe that’s even further evidence that Nola gets back to elite form tonight. Not to mention, the Phils -245 moneyline number is BY FAR their highest of the season and their 42-digit increase on the moneyline since the open is the highest of any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins
CLE: Corey Kluber – R (2-2, 5.81 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (2-0, 2.17 ERA)

This is an excellent pitching matchup going down in Miami tonight, and it’s quite interesting to note that Caleb Smith is actually the one coming in on a high note – not Corey Kluber. Smith has been dazzling tough NL East opponents in each of his five starts, the last four being of the quality variety. In fact, Smith has allowed 2 runs or fewer in four of those five starts. The Indians’ offense has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season, ranking in the bottom five of most major categories in that split.

Kluber, much like Nola (who I talked about earlier), needs to get back on the good foot to elite form. Aside from Opening Day (again like Nola), Kluber really hasn’t had that trademark ace-start that we’re all so accustomed to. Thankfully, he’ll be taking on a National League team, which takes away the DH, and it helps that the Marlins are one of (if not) the worst offensive team in baseball.

So, we’ve got two talented pitchers against two anemic offenses. No reason to get cute here, especially with the game total dropping a half-run to 6.5. Also, the Indians’ IRT (-0.5) and moneyline (-34 digits) both dropped significantly, thus alluding to yet another good outing by Smith. I don’t think the Marlins rough up Kluber, but it does seem like they could pull the upset in a low-scoring game tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (season debut)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

Two very hittable southpaws go up against one another at Citi Field, and even though Vegas has lowered the total on this game, I see it going the other way. What’s interesting here too is the wind that’ll be blowing in from right field. The way Citi Field is designed, that actually creates a Jetstream off the wall behind home plate out to left field.

That’s a perfect scenario for runs, considering the Mets rank fourth in weighted on-base average (wOBA) while the Brewers are eighth.

To be honest, I have no idea why the Brewers brought Gio Gonzalez back. He didn’t pitch well enough in the minors for the Yankees to add him to their minor league roster, but perhaps Milwaukee sees something we don’t. Believe me, I’ll keep searching.

Aside from one start in Philly, Steven Matz has actually been very good this season. However, with all these power righty bats that the Brewers have, I’m not feeling too optimistic about his chances in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – New York Mets: 5 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-3 3.65 ERA)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (2-1, 5.25 ERA)

This is my favorite play of the day, as we have two very underrated pitchers going up against one another. And Vegas has taken notice, dropping the game total from 8.5 to 7.5 – subsequently, the IRT dropped -0.5 for each as well. The weather also comes into play today, with the wind blowing in from right field at about 10 mph.

Jack Flaherty had plenty of tough matchups this season – three against the Brewers, one against the Dodgers, and his easiest came at home against the Padres. Against the Brewers, Flaherty has allowed 13 runs over 13 innings – against everyone else, he has allowed one run over 11 innings. His record and ERA just don’t match up to the type of power-pitcher this guy is, and you can thank the Brewers for that.

Apparently, Sonny Gray really did need to get away from the Yankees. Finally, he is coming back around to be the pitcher we all thought he was. Despite pitching at another hitter’s haven, Gray has only allowed one homer this season – and it didn’t even come in Cincy! The righty actually has 18 strikeouts over his last 11 1/3 innings of work, and it came against good competition (at Dodgers, vs. Braves).

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (-110 ML) at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (3-1, 3.21 ERA)
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (2-1, 3.33 ERA)

The Cubs have a combined .407 batting average and 1.076 OPS in 100 career plate appearances against Luke Weaver. All of that comes from his days with the Cardinals, but it’s certainly something to consider for today’s matchup.

Perhaps, the main reason for loving the Cubbies today is Jose Quintana, who has allowed 14 hits, three walks and two runs while striking out 25 batters over his last 21 innings of work.

Keeping it short and simple, fly the W flag – Cubbies win!

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, April 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We’re back and fully recharged from the Betting on Sports America Conference in Secaucus, NJ. A big thanks go out to everyone that set up the great event and the attendees that stopped by the SpreadKnowledge booth. You’re all welcome for the orange pens!

There might be two games (Brewers-Mets & Marlins-Phillies) threatened by the inclement weather but plenty of other action going on around MLB tonight for us to take advantage of.

[7:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (2-2, 8.28 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-3, 1.76 ERA)

The current Blue Jays’ roster hasn’t seen much of Mike Fiers, but when they have – oh my goodness. Toronto’s roster has a combined .362 batting average and 1.005 OPS in 49 career plate appearances, which is mind-blowing, considering Justin Smoak’s 2-for-12 (with 6 Ks) mark is holding the numbers back somewhat. Fiers has just flat out sucked over his last three starts, allowing six runs in each of them and a total of 23 hits and five homers over the last 10 innings. Yikes!

Marcus Stroman hasn’t had the best luck, as you can see from his 1-3 record to go along with the microscopic 1.76 ERA. But he did skill this same A’s team in his last start, allowing only one run over eight innings. It is, however, a very tough proposition to be that successful against a team for the second time in as many starts.

One other factor is the MLB debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr. tonight, which should have quite an electric feel in the ballpark. I’d expect all of these hitters to be at the top of their games with the spotlight shining a little brighter than usual for an A’s-Blue Jays game. Also, both teams (A’s: +0.3, Blue Jays: +0.2) had their respective IRTs increase slightly, thus hinting to some additional offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 5 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (0-1, 5.59 ERA)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (2-1, 4.97 ERA)

With the exception of Yadier Molina (3-for-22, 4 Ks) and Kolten Wong (0-for-15, 7 Ks), a lot of these Cardinals hitters have made life a living hell for Anthony DeSclafani. In fact, their current roster holds a combined .286 batting average and .891 OPS against DeSclafani in 143 career plate appearances. Much of that is due to the big boppers on St. Louis, Matt Carpenter (9-for-22, 3 HR, 1.536 OPS) and Paul Goldschmidt (8-for-13, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 1.720 OPS).

Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the Cards, and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling from his last outing against the Mets. The 30-year-old righty only allowed four hits, two walks and two runs over eight innings – clearly his best start of the season. After losing his season debut, Mikolas has rebounded with a 2-0 record over the team’s last four starts, and the Cardinals are undefeated in each of those four starts.

Look for St. Louis to stay on the good foot and win for the fifth straight time that Mikolas starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 3 *

[9:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (1-3 3.54 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 3.95 ERA)

Apparently, the theme of the evening is pitchers facing the team they just saw in their previous start. Both of these guys pitched very well at Wrigley Field last weekend, albeit in conditions that were not favorable for offenses. In fact, every single game of last weekend’s Cubs-Diamondbacks went under the total.

Well, Vegas thinks we’ll see a much different type of game as the total has jumped from 8.5 to 9. 5 – that gives us IRT increases (Cubs: +0.6, D-Backs: +0.4) as well. And I agree in thinking we’ll see plenty of runs in the desert tonight.

While Robbie Ray usually gets a good number of strikeouts, he has allowed at least four walks in three of his five starts this season. The Cubs didn’t have an answer for him and the D-Backs bullpen last weekend, but seeing Ray for the second time in five days should give their offense the upper hand.

I’ve never been a fan of Kyle Hendricks, but he did make the D-Backs look silly with 11 strikeouts over seven innings. Once again, I do think there’s a big advantage for offenses twice within a week. Prior to that last outing against Arizona, Hendricks had allowed 14 runs (eight earned) and struck out 10 batters over 13 1/3 innings of work. Look for him to come back down to Earth tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Easter Sunday, April 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Picks

[2:20 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 4.64 ERA)
CHC: Tyler Chatwood – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

The bullpens for the D-Backs (5.35) and Cubs (5.22) have the third- and fourth-worst ERAs in baseball. So why the hell have we seen the first two games of this series go under? Wind, damnit! In each of the first two games, the wind was howling in from left field at about 15-17 mph on Friday and Saturday. We should have a different story today, though, with the winds getting out of left field at about 7-10 mph during the game.

Robbie Ray has excellent strikeout ability but did allow four or more walks in three of his four starts this season. The Cubs’ offense has brutal numbers lifetime against Ray, but this is a much different lefty than they’ve seen in the past.

Tyler Chatwood is absolutely terrible. While we shouldn’t see too much of him, this guy’s time on the mound can usually be quite efficient for opposing offenses. Chatwood never has good control and you almost guarantee that ducks will be on the pond all day for D-Backs’ hitters.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 * 

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-1, 3.86 ERA)
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (1-1, 5.87 ERA)

Mike Leake is allowing plenty of baserunners (at least seven in all of four starts), but he has done a fine job of limiting the damage, surrendering only two runs each in three of those four starts. Well, that luck may run out today, because Leake is facing an Angels’ roster that has a collective .354 batting average and .937 OPS against him.

Jaime Barria is a pitcher who I’ve had absolutely zero faith in since he made his MLB debut last season. He’s a soft-tossing righty that seems to get away with a ton of mistakes, and that’ll be a lot harder to do today against a potent Mariners offense. The Angels’ bullpen does have the fourth-best ERA (3.36) in the American League this season but the hope is that the Mariners tee off on Barria quite a bit before we see them.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 4 * 

[7:00 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Indians
ATL: Max Fried – L (2-0, 0.92 ERA)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-0, 1.71 ERA)

Max Fried and Shane Bieber have been two of the season’s most pleasant surprises, and now they’ll have the chance to go toe-to-toe against one another on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. It’s interesting that both guys actually made their season debuts out of the bullpen, but now they’re front and center doing big things for their respective team’s rotations.

With the two teams playing a doubleheader yesterday, look for each guy to collect their usual quality outing of at least six innings, and possibly even get an additional one to let the bullpen get some extra rest.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Atlanta Braves: 2 * 

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Night Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:20 p.m. EST] Over 9 –  New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 0.87 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Nine of the 11 Mets’ games have reached the over this season, and a big part of that is the ineffectiveness of their bullpen, which ranks fifth-worst in MLB with a 6.51 ERA. That’s not a great sign for a team heading into one of the best hitting parks in the Majors and the wind is blowing out to left field at 12 mph. Both teams have seen its IRT rise (Mets: +0.3, Braves: +0.2) and have the second- and third-highest increase on the night slate.

Although Matz has gotten off to a great start this season and owns a great history against the Braves (4-0, 2.75 in seven career starts), most of that success wasn’t against this current group of guys. These ATL bats are in a great position, with Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson have been red-hot while Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. are also producing nicely.

Gausman had a nice outing to start the season, but we should remember that it came against a very weak Marlins team. The Mets have been swinging it well, specifically Michael Conforto and Peter Alonso – we can even throw in J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil if we wanted to. Robbie Cano also has a .400 lifetime average against Gausman. Not to mention, the Braves’ bullpen ranks ninth-worst in MLB with a 5.54 ERA.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – New York Mets: 6 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
PIT: Joe Musgrove – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (0-1, 10.29 ERA)

The initial 10.5 total on this game has dropped down to nine, which is quite significant. So, it’s no surprise that both teams (Cubs: -0.9, Pirates: -0.7) have the largest Implied Run Total (IRT) decreases on the entire slate.

Musgrove has yet to allow a run in two appearances (one start, one relief), allowing only three hits and one walk over nine innings while striking out nine batters. Plus, the current Cubs roster only has a career .183 batting average against Musgrove. Given his current string on success in the present day, the Cubs will likely struggle a great deal on offense. Not to mention, Musgrove is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts against the Cubs.

On the other side, Quintana will be looking to rebound from a horrific start against the Brewers. It helps today’s under on the total that he is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts against the Pirates. Ultimately, though, the Cubs’ bullpen has struggled plenty, owning MLB’s sixth-worst ERA (6.34) this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 – Chicago Cubs: 3 *

 [9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
COL: Jon Gray – R (0-2, 5.68 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (0-0, 2.79 ERA)

I might be one of the few people out there that thinks Samardzija is a decent pitcher, but I will only take the chance of using him for money (betting or DFS) when pitching at Oracle Park, one of the league’s worst parks for hitting. Samardzija doesn’t have great overall numbers against the Rockies, but when the games haven’t been at Coors Field, he has a 3.02 ERA in those matchups. While he does have decent numbers this season, the former Notre Dame wideout hasn’t been going too deep into games. But that’s ok, considering the Giants’ bullpen ranks fourth in MLB with a 2.63 ERA.

Gray goes for the Rockies, and he’ll be salivating over this matchup against a Giants team that has a collective batting average of .206 and the league’s fourth-fewest amount of runs scored. In his last start, Gray ran into the scorching-hot Dodgers’ offense at Coors Field, so I won’t take that outing too deeply into thought. Look for him to rebound with a nice outing tonight against a bad San Fran offense.

All in all, I just don’t like the way either team is playing right now. I’ll give the edge to the Giants being at home and having the better bullpen, but I don’t think we’ll see a ton of runs in any event.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *