Category: Sports

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 128-110-4 (53.8%) *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-2, 4.22 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (1-1, 5.06 ERA/1.78 WHIP)

Vegas already made its statement on this game by giving the Phillies a massive 0.5 IRT increase. Not to mention, the Braves had the second-largest moneyline decrease of the day – not a good sign of things to come.

Aaron Nola has always done well against the Braves, and he comes into tonight’s matchup in peak form. The All-Star righty is 8-3 lifetime against Atlanta with a 2.46 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 14 starts. Nola has allowed only run and an 0.60 WHIP over his last 15 innings while striking out 20 hitters.

Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Braves and his return to baseball hasn’t exactly been great. In each of his two starts, Keuchel has allowed eight hits and three earned runs. Not to mention, Philly advanced metrics against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days is something we want a part of. The Phils have a massive .361 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties in that span of time.

Philly is averaging just under 7.5 runs per game over their last seven, so having that recency bias and Nola with a great history against the Braves makes this bet all the sweeter.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Atlanta Braves: 2

[10:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-5, 4.75 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
SEA: Matt Carasiti – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

The top rating from the SK Trend Confidence comes to us from the Great Northwest. The over in tonight’s game is looking like a firm position, given how bad the pitching for Seattle has been. Matt Carasiti has been fine in limited work, but he’ll be handing the game off to Wade LeBlanc afterward — and that’s the best possible thing we’re looking for.

For whatever reason, the Cardinals just hit right-handed pitching much better — that’s just how it is. They’ll be able to take advantage of that later in the game, but LeBlanc’s basic style will suit them well early on.

I really like the future that Jack Flaherty has ahead of him, but things just haven’t been working out early on this season. In fact, things have been much worse on the road, where he owns a massive 6.68 ERA. Flaherty is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing nine hits (three homers and seven runs over 4 2/3 innings.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 127-109-4 (53.8%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 (-104) –  Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (2-2, 2.94 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (2-8, 4.35 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

We’re only going to see Adrian Houser for a few innings, but he should get us well on our way to hitting the under tonight. Despite a rough outing in his last appearance, Houser has allowed one run or fewer in 14 of his 17 appearances this season.

Coming behind Houser is the Milwaukee bullpen, which has the fifth-best ERA (3.08) over the last 14 days. In any event, we’re probably going to see Josh Hader enter the game at some point. That’s two innings of pure shut-down baseball. The electric lefty has notched 77 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings this season.

The stat sheet for Tyler Mahle hasn’t necessarily been pristine, but it’s not a total disaster either. Mahle has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts. Not to mention, the Brewers’ offense hasn’t been at its best of late, scoring three runs or fewer in five of their last six games and the Reds have one run or fewer in three of the last five games.

Brewers’ games have gone under the total in five straight, while Reds’ games have done the same in 18 of their last 24. Five of the nine Brewers-Reds’ matchups have also gone under the total this season. This is THE TOP TREND is the SK Trend Confidence rating system tonight, folks! Let’s have at it!

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – Cincinnati Reds: 3

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -144)
BAL: Thomas Darwin Eshelman – R (MLB debut)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-1, 2.76 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

OK, time to pick on the Orioles again. And this is the perfect time to do so, given that Tampa Bay will be rolling out one of its patented bullpen-games. I always love taking the Rays in these situations because they play the individual matchups so well and truly make it work to their benefit.

Even better for the Rays is that they’ll be facing the worst team in MLB. The Orioles have lost 14 of the last 17 games, and their bullpen is absolutely dreadful. Baltimore’s pen ranks dead last (even worse than the Mets) in every single metric that is tabulated.

The Rays are 4-2 against the Orioles this season and will likely add on to that win total tonight. Tampa Bay’s -280 moneyline is its highest total of the season, thus increasing the likelihood that the home team will take care of business this evening.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 126-108-4 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -190) at Detroit Tigers
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (7-5, 2.52 ERA/
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-5, 5.95 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Mad Max is back in the D! It was one of the worst moves in the history of the franchise, letting Max Scherzer out of town, but he’s back to claim what’s rightfully is – respect.

And apparently, breaking his nose was just the thing he needed. Since that tragic gaff, Scherzer has held the opposition to one run over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. The multi-colored-orbital man has now struck out at least nine batters in each of his last five outings, including double-digits in four of those starts.

Today, Scherzer will go toe-to-toe with Jordan Zimmermann. This is a mismatch made in heaven if you’re betting on the Nationals, which is what I plan on doing here – heavily. Looking at Zimmermann’s stat line, it really doesn’t do justice, and it seems like some time on the IL didn’t do anything to help matters. Since then, Zimmermann has allowed 14 hits and six runs over his last nine innings. In general, the Tigers have lost the last six games that Zimmermann started, five of them coming by two runs or more.

The recent Statcast data against right-handed pitching between the teams is noticeably different. Over the last 21 days, the Nationals have a massive .370 wOBA and .249 ISO while the Tigers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with a .304 wOBA, .158 ISO and 26.3% K-rate.

All in all, we’re not trying to kid anyone here. Max is going to mow these poor Tigers’ hitters with relative ease.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[1:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (ML: -200)
TEX: Jesse Chavez – R (3-2, 2.79 ERA/
TB: Blake Snell – L (4-7, 5.01 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

It’s no secret that Blake Snell has struggled this season, but this a prime opportunity for him to get back on the good foot. The Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching with a massive 32.6% K-rate over the last 21 days. As we all know, Snell is one of the best in the business at racking them up.

The Rangers will throw a bullpen-game at the Rays today, and it’s not like that’s going to help their case. Over the last 14 days, the Texas bullpen owns a zaftig 4.91 ERA. The road has not been kind to the Rangers this season, and even though their recent success looks good, this is simply a different team away from Globe Life Park.

Let’s roll with the Rays in confidence, and know that Snell is going to dominate this afternoon!

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Texas Rangers: 2 

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 28

!!! ATTENTION READERS !!! 

Just wanted to give everyone a heads up, but there won’t be any written articles tomorrow (6/29), next Friday (7/5) and next Saturday (7/6) due to prior commitments. Sorry for the inconvenience. All computer-generated picks will still be calculated and the site will be up and running on those days as usual.

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 125-106-4 (54%) *


[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
PIT: Chris Archer – R (3-6, 5.56 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.88 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

The Brewers’ offense surprisingly sputtered in their recent three-game series against the Mariners, but just watching yesterday’s game it was evident that bad luck played a part. Numerous hard-hit balls managed to find leather or landed a few steps from the wall.

Luckily, they’ll be facing a pitcher in Chris Archer who hasn’t been at his best. In fact, the right has allowed a homer in 11 of his 13 starts this season and owns a massive 8.42 ERA on the road. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Archer has allowed at least four runs and two homers in each of his three starts against Milwaukee.

On the other side, Jhoulys Chacin has been getting rocked all season. His last outing against the Pirates (on May 31) was downright brutal, as the righty allowed six hits/four walks and seven runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Good news for the Pirates – and the over – is that Brewers’ reliever Josh Hader pitched the final two innings yesterday to get the save. After pitching two innings the previous day, Hader has not entered the next day’s game once in his career.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a B+ grade on the over in this game, given how many runs these two teams have put up against each other this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 7

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-110) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-1, 1.27 ERA/0.84 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (6-5, 4.91 ERA/1.57 WHIP)

In last night’s 12-8 slugfest, we saw exactly how helpful these hot temperatures at Coors Field are for the hitters. We’ve got the same conditions for tonight’s game, and that’s why Vegas has dramatically increased the total from 11.0 to 12.5, with the Dodgers (+0.9) and Rockies (+0.7) getting massive IRT increases.

There’s more reason to believe the Dodgers will add more runs to the game total. After all, Antonio Senzatela has been beaten over the head this season, especially at Coors field with a 6.21 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Senzatela did pitch well against the Dodgers last week, but we’ve seen plenty of teams capitalize offensively facing the same pitcher twice in a span of less than a week.

Hyun-Jin Ryu also faced the Rockies in his last start, allowing three runs (one earned) over six innings. However, Ryu has a 1-4 record over his last six start against Colorado, and it’s been even worse at Coors Field. In his last two starts there, the lefty has allowed 15 hits/six walks and 15 runs (10 earned) over six innings.

Just as the case was last night, the two bullpens will certainly be a factor and ultimately decide this one. In the month of June, the Dodgers’ bullpen has the second-best ERA (2.84) while the Rockies own the seventh-worst (5.46).

The SK Trend Confidence rating is strong on the Dodgers tonight in every fashion. After last night’s win, the Dodgers remain a perfect 7-0 against the Rockies this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 12 – Colorado Rockies: 10

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-112) – St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
STL: Michael Wacha – R (5-3, 5.59 ERA/1.67 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (5-7, 4.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

There has only been a total of 9.0 at Petco Park twice this season, which is quite telling for a ballpark that doesn’t have the stigma of being a hitter’s park. For what it’s worth, both times the total finished on or above the mark. Vegas adjusted the total from 8.5 to 9.0 and both teams obviously got an IRT increase as well – Cardinals: +0.2, Padres: +0.3.

A good reason for the increased total is the Padres’ recent tear of offense, with 28 runs over the last three games. In the month of June, Padres’ games have gone over the total 15 times in 23 games with two pushes mixed in there.

Michael Wacha has been hit or miss lately, allowing six runs or more in three of his last six starts. The Padres will run a mostly right-handed lineup out at Wacha tonight, and he’s been getting crushed from that side of the plate. Opposing righties are walloping him for .338 batting average, .406 on-base percentage and 1.025 OPS this season. Of the 14 homers Wacha has allowed, 12 of them have come from righties.

While the Cardinals haven’t necessarily clobbered the ball of late, facing the Padres can certainly do them some good. Eric Lauer will have to deal with a nearly all right-handed lineup to deal with, including Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, who are both 4-for-5 against him lifetime – Goldy has two homers while Ozuna has one.

If all of that wasn’t enough, San Diego’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.31) in the month of June – only the Mets and Orioles have done worse.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 4

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 124-106-4 (54%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -120) at Miami Marlins
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (8-4, 3.79 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-6, 3.51 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Stephen Strasburg has handled the Marlins with relative ease over the course of his career, going 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 32 career starts – the Nationals are 23-9 in those games. This year’s version of the Marlins is a lot worse, especially of late, with a .269 wOBA and .099 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

The road has been much more kind to Strasburg this season, as his 2.92 ERA is much better there than at Nationals Park, where it sits at 4.71. In fact, the Nationals are a whopping 25-8 in road games which Strasburg has started since the beginning of last season.

Sandy Alcantara has had a rough go of it against the Nationals over his career, losing all three of his starts and accumulating a 9.00 ERA/2.46 WHIP. The top four hitters in Washington’s lineup (Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto) have particularly given Alcantara trouble, combining to go 15-for-32 against him.

Recently, Alcantara has been allowing loads of baserunners – 22 of them in his last 13 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, the Phillies and Pirates couldn’t take advantage in those games, but we’ll give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt tonight.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the Nationals on the 1.5-run line, for all of the reasons listed above.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 (-120) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (8-1, 2.96 ERA/0.88 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-0, 5.85 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Walker Buehler has been fantastic in the month of June with a 3-0 record, 0.87 ERA/0.45 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. His last outing came against these same Rockies, going the distance allowing two runs (on two solo homers) while striking out 16.

Buehler has made eight career starts against the Rockies and gone 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA/0.81 WHIP. In his last four starts against Colorado, the righty has allowed 10 hits/six walks and only five runs (three earned) in a total 26 2/3 innings.

The Rockies’ offense hasn’t played at Coors Field since Trevor Story went down with the thumb injury, but they have an average of only 3.6 runs per game in the seven afterward. Not to mention, Colorado owns an anemic .274 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, thus alluding to the lack of quality contact.

After two solid outings to begin his career, Peter Lambert has now coughed up 16 hits and 11 runs over his last eight innings of work. Lambert has been getting hit harder by left-handed bats and four of the first five hitters in the Dodgers’ lineup are projected to be from that side.

Lastly, the difference between these two bullpens over the last 14 days is quite significant. Over that span, the Rockies’ pen owns the fourth-worst ERA (6.62) while the Dodgers’ has the fifth-best (3.00).

The SK Trend Confidence rating has strong grades on the total going under and the Dodgers in both fashions, moneyline and 1.5-run line. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 against Colorado going into tonight’s matchup.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 122-105-4 (53.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -155)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.75 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
PHI: Nick Pivetta – R (4-2, 5.54 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

We’ve been on the right side of this total in the first two games of the Phils-Mets series, so let’s keep the train moving. The Phils already owned the highest IRT (5.6) on the night slate and that has now been boosted by slate-high +0.6 increase. Good things are coming for Philly tonight and the visitors should be able to tack enough runs on to have the total go over.

Jason Vargas takes the mound for the Mets and he’ll be facing a Phils’ offense that is absolutely locked in at the plate in the first two games of this series. For all the struggles Philly had recently, their .418 wOBA and .288 ISO against left-handed pitching are absolutely magnificent. Vargas hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in each of his last two starts and is averaging just under five innings per start this season.

We should see plenty of the Mets bullpen, and the 20 runs scored by Philly in the first two games of this series have shined an even brighter light on how bad they’ve been. Look for more of the same tonight.

Nick Pivetta has struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, allowing 15 hits/five walks, 10 runs and five homers in 12 innings of work. Despite coughing up numerous runs, the Mets have always been able to them on the board at Citizens Bank Park. Look for the right-handed bats to do most of the damage against Pivetta, as they have a .337 batting average and 1.000 OPS in 102 plate appearances against him this season.

Philly’s bullpen was solid last night, but they have been a shaky unit overall this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets get a couple of extra runs against them either.

All in all, we should see plenty of runs for the third-consecutive night – and most of them coming from the Philly side.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
TEX: Mike Minor – L (7-4, 2.52 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.61 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

We’ll have dueling lefties at Comerica Park tonight as two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball will square off. Vegas adjusted the total down from 9.0 to 8.5 and the IRTs dipped for both teams: Rangers: -0.5, Tigers: -0.1.

Mike Minor has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts – he’s allowed two runs or fewer eight times, one run or fewer six times and no runs in two of those outings. So far in the month of June, Minor has a 2-0 record and 1.93 ERA over four starts.

The Tigers’ numbers are slightly below average against lefties over the last 21 days with a .325 wOBA, and I see them having an even tougher time against Minor.

On the other side, Matt Boyd will look to get back on track after a few mediocre/rough outings against quality opponents in three of his last four. The caveat here is the Rangers’ woeful .260 wOBA, .098 ISO and 30.3% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. In the midst of Boyd’s struggles, he’s still striking out plenty of hitters – 30 Ks over the last 22 innings. Not to mention, the current Rangers’ roster owns a .263 on-base percentage in 78 career plate appearances against Boyd.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has B+ grades for the Rangers and total under tonight, which are some of the highest on the slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Texas Rangers: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 25

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 120-105-4 (53.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-122) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Walker Lockett – R (0-1, 23.14 ERA/2.57 WHIP)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-6, 4.12 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

We saw a slugfest last night, and we’re going to see one again. Vegas already set the tone for this game, raising the total from 10 to 10.5, and the heavy juice (-122) is on the over.

Most of that has to do with Walker Lockett, who has been battered in his brief MLB experience. Dating back to last season, Lockett owns an 0-4 record to go along with an 11.42 ERA/2.19 WHIP over 17 1/3 innings.

The Phils are coming off a season-high 19-hit performance in last night’s game, and I’d look for them to carry over the hot-swinging sticks tonight. As I mentioned in yesterday’s writing, the Phils were swept over the weekend by the lowly Marlins, and this series against the Mets is a true challenge of where this team is at – and where they’ll be going forward.

Jake Arrieta has thrown two consecutive quality starts, but I don’t see that trend continuing. Left-handed batters have been giving him plenty of trouble this season, and now the Mets have guys like Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto back in the lineup.

Just as the case was last night, both teams’ bullpens are an absolute mess. I went over the advanced metrics yesterday, so there’s no need to do it again after a 13-7 game. They suck, take my word for it.

A total of eight homers were hit in last night’s game, adding on to the narrative of slugfests between these two teams at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s do it again!

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 10 – New York Mets: 5

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-104) – Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (8-6, 4.38 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

We’ve got two hot offenses going head-to-head in Milwaukee, so it’s only natural to take the over here. After all, Vegas raised the total from 9.5 to 10.5, with each team getting a nice IRT increase as well – Brewers: +0.6, Mariners: +0.4.

After struggling at the beginning of June, the Brewers have now scored at least six runs in four of the last five games. Looking at their Statcast data over the last 21 days, we’ll see that Milwaukee has been quite unlucky against right-handed pitching over that span. Their .357 xwOBA and .310 wOBA have a huge gap, with the xwOBA telling us their quality of contact is high and the wOBA telling us how painful it’s been to watch those baseballs hit leather.

Marco Gonzales has pitched well in his last three outings, but he’s facing an incredibly tough lineup in their own ballpark tonight. Not to mention, Miller Park tends to favor offenses more often than not.

The Mariners’ bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA (5.24) in all of baseball, and we’ll probably see more of them tonight if Gonzales gets lifted for a pinch hitter in the NL ballpark.

Zach Davies has been knocked around in the month of June, allowing 30 hits and 13 runs over 20 2/3 innings of work. Opposing hitters have a .353 batting average against him over that span.

Seattle’s offense is rocking and rolling with a .360 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, and the top of its’ lineup is mainly to thank for that.

All in all, we’ve got two teams making solid contact with the ball and the Brewers should especially be able to feast late in this game against the Mariners’ bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 119-103-4 (53.6%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Steven Matz – L (5-5, 4.28 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (6-7, 2.83 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

This should be quite a game tonight, with both teams facing their own bouts of controversy. The Phils on a seven-game losing streak and the Mets dealing with yet another chaotic situation after Mickey Callaway and Jason Vargas almost came to blows with a reporter yesterday.

Nonetheless, the Phillies-Mets matchups at Citizens Bank Park tend to have plenty of runs scored – and it’s usually the Mets doing most of the damage. You just have to wonder when we’re going to see the Phils pick themselves back up off the floor. Getting swept over the weekend by the Marlins might just be the motivation they needed.

Zach Eflin had one start against the Mets so far this season and allowed four runs (three earned) over four innings. Lifetime against the Mets, Eflin has a 2-4 record with a 5.63 ERA/1.33 WHIP in eight starts.

Steven Matz has two starts against the Phis this season, with one great outing and the other one… ehhhh, not so much. Back on April 16, Matz didn’t even record an out before leaving the game, allowing eight runs (six earned) on two homers, four hits and a walk. In the outing that went well, which was actually his next start after getting whomped by the Phils, Matz allowed one run over six innings. Lifetime against the Phils, Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA/1.50 WHIP in seven starts.

Then there’s the issue of these bullpens. Over the last 14 days, the Phils’ pen has the second-worst xFIP (5.48) while the Mets own the fifth-worst (5.19). The advanced metric “xFIP” determines the quality of pitching that is independent of fielding – the higher the number, the worse they are.

It’s going to be a gorgeous evening in Philadelphia, with the wind blowing out slightly at 6 mph to center field, making it great hitting conditions at an extreme hitter’s ballpark.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 7 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-116) – Chicago White Sox (ML: +150) at Boston Red Sox
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (10-2, 2.74 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (8-4, 4.71 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a very high B+ grade on both the White Sox and total going under in this game.

Granted, Lucas Giolito is coming off a rough outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, but I won’t hold it against him. That’s been a tough matchup for most pitchers, and especially for Giolito since coming to Chicago.

The kid’s metrics, which include a 30.9% K-rate and 14.6% swinging-strike rate, are absolutely fantastic. Over the last 30 days, Giolito’s 34.6% K-rate is fifth-best in MLB behind Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler. Thanks to that note from Brian Tulloch at FantasyCPR. All of you fantasy baseball fans, check out his article from today.

Giolito slipped up in his last outing and I fully expect him to get back on the dominant foot. Sure, the Red Sox are a tough matchup, but Giolito has 15 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings of work against them in his lifetime and only allowed one extra-base hit in 44 plate appearances against the current roster.

Eduardo Rodriguez is slowly starting to come around, and he too had a rough outing last time out against a tough Twins lineup. In most of E-Rod’s starts that he’s supposed to do well, he does. Even though it goes against the thinking of the White Sox winning tonight, E-Rod has an 18-2 record since the beginning of last season against teams with a losing record – it still means that he pitches well when he’s supposed to.

At the end of the day, Giolito is the more-dominant pitcher between the two and we’re getting a huge plus-money opportunity with him on the mound – especially when the Red Sox just struggled over the weekend with the lowly Blue Jays. E-Rod has allowed six homers over his last 25 1/3 innings of work, and that could ultimately be the difference.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 (-108) – Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-5, 3.40 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (6-5, 4.13 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Ohhh yes, take the over on this game and never look back. 15 mph winds are blowing out to center field with two solid offenses in great spots. Vegas has taken note of the extreme hitter’s conditions and elevated the IRTs for both teams – Cubs: +0.6, Braves: +0.4 – as well as the game total from 10.5 to 11.5.

Julio Teheran was on a nice run of outings, but the Mets abused him for eight hits and six runs to go along with three walks over four innings of work. Back on April 3, Teheran allowed nine baserunners against the Cubs but did manage to get out of that outing allowing only one run. With the conditions not in his favor tonight, some of those opportunities could turn into damage real quick.

The Cubs rank ninth in all of baseball in the power-metric ISO (.194) against right-handed pitching. Also, the Braves bullpen ranks 10th-worst in xFIP (4.78) over the last 14 days.

Jon Lester has been getting beat up with regularity, allowing seven or more hits in seven of the last nine outings. To make matters worse, one of the best hitting teams against left-handed pitching makes their way to Wrigley Field. Over the last 21 days, the Braves have a massive .441 xwOBA – the metric that is calculated by quality of contact. For reference, about .335 is average. A lot of those quality-contact balls should be flying over the ivy tonight

Hopefully, you’re watching this game since it’s on MLB TV tonight. You can miss the NBA awards show, I’ll fill you in on Twitter.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 12 – Chicago Cubs: 10 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 118-101-4 (54%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (ML: -200/1.5-run line: -114)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-5, 4.40 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (2-2, 2.56 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

The Indians are 7-1 against the Tigers this season, and it’s not looking like things will get any better for the visitors today. This will be the 11th time Cleveland is favored by -200 or more, with an 8-3 record in those games.  On the other hand, Detroit has been struggling, with losses in seven of the last eight contests.

Zach Plesac, the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan Plesac, has lived up to the namesake early in his career. The rookie righty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five starts – one run or fewer in three of the five. Detroit’s numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days are absolutely dreadful — .287 wOBA, .145 ISO and 25.4% K-rate.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been the exact opposite against left-handed pitching. The Tribe has a magnificent .400 wOBA, .292 ISO and 14.4% K-rate in that split over the last 21 days.

While Daniel Norris hasn’t exactly gotten beat over the head recently, it’ll be tough for him to keep up that level of effectiveness today against an Indians team that is rocking and rolling — pun intended to the city of Cleveland.

Lastly, we’ve got a huge difference in bullpens here, as the Indians own the league’s best ERA (3.21) and the Tigers have the fifth-worst (5.18).

I don’t mind taking the Indians on the moneyline or 1.5-run line here — they get it done either which way.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -106) at Washington Nationals
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (8-1, 2.12 ERA/
WSH: Austin Voth – R (season debut)

Mike Soroka has looked a little more human after his unreal start to the season, but it’s still been enough to keep getting the Braves wins. The young Canadian righty only threw 68 pitches in his last outing, so look for him to be fully charged up for this one.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 when Soroka starts against teams with a losing record this season and the team also own a 10-2 record on Sundays. The Braves have won the last eight of Soroka’s starts. Also, the Nationals have somehow never seen Soroka before, giving him the advantage of the unknown – it’s a thing.

Austin Voth gets a spot start for the Nationals today, in place of Joe Ross. Washington needed Ross to pitch last night in an emergency because of all the runs that were scored, and the fact that its bullpen has been taxed all week – including the doubleheader on Wednesday. Voth’s season down in Triple-A hasn’t been great, as he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA.

This is all great news for the Braves’ offense today, and Vegas has taken note by elevating their IRT an entire run from 4.6 to 5.6 – the third-highest on the entire slate. Atlanta’s offense also owns a massive .385 wOBA and .260 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -142) at Pittsburgh Pirates
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (6-4, 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (3-1, 4.40 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Padres will be looking to avoid the sweep and look to have the right guy for the job in Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a masterful seven-inning shutout performance against the Brewers. Lucchesi has been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, and he already stifled this Pirates’ offense a little more than a month ago by allowing only two runs over seven innings.

Not to mention, the Pirates own the league’s third-lowest wOBA (.284) against left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh’s .282 xwOBA against lefties over the last 21 days indicates they’re not seeing the ball well either and with Lucchesi’s herky-jerky motion won’t make things any easier.

It’s certainly an optimistic outlook for the Padres, as this will be their second-highest moneyline odds on the road this season.

Steven Brault goes for the Pirates, and he’ll have trouble against a Padres’ lineup featuring seven right-handed bats. As a team, San Diego owns a massive .256 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Look for Lucchesi’s big outing to lead the way to a Padres’ victory today.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 117-99-4 (54.2%) *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-110) – Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
TOR: Derek Law – R (0-1, 5.16 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (10.00 ERA/2.67 WHIP)

These two teams have met seven times so this season, and the total has gone over in six of them – in the only misnomer, the total pushed at 10 runs. Not to mention, Blue Jays’ games have gone over the total in eight of the last 10, with one push mixed in there.

We’re going to see plenty of bullpen pitching today, and that’s a beautiful sign for the total going over. The Blue Jays’ bullpen owns the second-worst WHIP (1.66) and fifth-worst ERA (5.97) while the Red Sox’ actually owns the fourth-best ERA (3.11), but 10th-worst WHIP (1.41).

The one thing that sort of nullifies Boston’s bullpen ERA is that Brian Johnson will be starting the game. He has been atrocious this season in limited action, as seen by his massive 2.67 WHIP. In nine innings pitched this season, Johnson has allowed 18 hits (3 HR), six walks and 10 runs.

It’s to put much stock in this because we likely won’t see much of Johnson today, but Toronto has improved mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .358 wOBA and .229 ISO over the last 21 days.

It’s good to see the Red Sox offense getting back on track, scoring at least seven runs in six of their last eight games. Guys like Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers (he’s out of the lineup today, could still pinch hit late) have led the charge over this span, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez join in on the party against lesser pitching today.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 10 – Toronto Blue Jays: 8 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +108)
MIA: Elieser Hernandez – R (0-2, 3.95 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
PHI: Vince Velasquez – R (2-4, 4.71 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

We’re not going with numbers on this one – straight gut.

After a dreadful performance on their recent road trip, and then again last night on Chase Utley Night, I fully expect this Phils team to break out in a major way tonight. They have lost nine of the last 11 games, including five straight – enough is enough.

Vince Velasquez should be highly motivated to give the Marlins plenty of fits today. The Phils have not been shy about needing help at the back of the rotation, and VV will be looking to give them a reason to not make a deal. Velasquez has been solid over his career against the Marlins, and their current roster owns a .167 batting average and .237 on-base percentage against him lifetime.

Elieser Hernandez takes the mound for Miami, and he’s been fairly effective in limited action this season. However, he does have a knack to getting beat up by left-handed bats and the Phils have no shortage of talent in that regard. Look for Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce and the red-hot Brad Miller to get Philly on the scoreboard early, thus leading the way to get into that Marlins bullpen which has the seventh-highest WHIP (1.48) in MLB over the last 14 days.

Once again, this is more of a gut call, in that this Phillies team is absolutely due for a win. With the Marlins being less of a power hitting team, those 12 mph winds blowing in from left field aren’t going to do them any favors.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (7-1, 2.26 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.60 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

I don’t understand the Brewers being favored in this game but it does lead me to believe that Jhoulys Chacin will finally have a good outing. Not to mention, the total going under has the highest grade in the SK Trend Confidence rating today, as Reds’ games have produced that result in 15 of the last 17 contests.

It was a positive sign for Chacin that he allowed only two runs and matched a season-high seven strikeouts in his last outing, a 2-0 loss at San Diego. He did pitch well against Cincy back on April 2, allowing only three hits, three walks and two runs while striking out six over 5 1/3 innings.

There’s also positive thinking in the fact that Chacin has much better numbers at Miller Park, as opposed to pitching on the road:

– Home: (5 starts) 2-1, 3.76 ERA/1.25 WHIP – .213 opposing batting average
– Away: (8 starts) 1-7, 6.94 ERA/1.71 WHIP – .295 opposing batting average

Luis Castillo doesn’t need any introduction, but I’ll give it to you anyway. Over his last 18 innings, the electric righty has allowed eights and four runs while striking out 21.

The knock, though, is that he’s allowed 12 walks in that span of innings. That could possibly be what Vegas possibly sees as the differentiator.

Nonetheless, Cincy’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball, and that’s a big reason why a lot of these totals have been going under.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *