Category: Sports

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, July 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 165-133-7 (55.4%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:07 p.m. EST] Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics (ML: -120)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (4-4, 4.19 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
OAK: Chris Bassitt – R (7-5, 4.09 ERA/1.20 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Brewers-A’s game, with the home team winning having one of the most likely outcomes in our system. Oakland a solid 41-22 record since May 16 (tied for best in MLB) and a 24-11 record since June 17.

With Milwaukee’s pitching mired in injury shambles, they’ll send Adrian Houser to the mound tonight, and that has been a good thing for opposing offenses. While Houser has done decent work out of the bullpen, his last four starts have not gone well, allowing 25 hits, eight walks and 15 runs over a span of 17 innings in those outings.

Not to mention, right behind Houser, we’re looking at a Brewers bullpen that has the eighth-highest ERA (5.10) in all of MLB since the All-Star break.

Chris Bassitt had a tough time against the Astros last time out, but he’s been slightly better pitching at home this season – 4-3, 3.51 ERA compared to 3-3, 4.53 ERA on the road. No one will ever confuse Bassitt for being one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s done a fine job of limiting opposing offenses and not letting games get out of hand.

The temperatures are expected to be in the upper-50s for tonight’s game, and that should neutralize a lot of Milwaukee’s power. In fact, some of Bassitt’s best performances this season came when the weather wasn’t brutally hot. Look for him to have a great night, and the A’s offense to add in sparingly throughout the game.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 6 – Milwaukee Brewers: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, July 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 163-132-7 (55.3%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 – Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
TOR: Thomas Pannone – L (2-4, 6.39 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-9, 3.95 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Blue Jays-Royals matchup. Our system is liking the under in this game, giving it a B+ grade and the fourth most-likely outcome on tonight’s slate. Vegas already put its stamp on the game by lowering the total from 10.0 to 9.5, with both teams’ IRTs (implied run totals) dropping as well – Blue Jays: -0.3, Royals: -0.2.

Brad Keller has just been a different guy when he gets to sleep in his own bed. His 4-3 record and 3.29 ERA/1.13 WHIP/.204 opposing batting average at Kauffman Stadium are much better than the 3-6 record and 4.39 ERA/1.51 WHIP/.272 opposing batting average on the road.

Looking at the Blue Jays numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, we’ve got even more reason to be optimistic about Keller tonight. Toronto owns a .295 weighted on-base average, .140 ISO and 26% K-rate against righties in that span.

We’re not looking for Thomas Pannone to be perfect, by any means. His last two starts were against a scorching-hot Red Sox lineup, and Pannone allowed four runs in each of those outings. Most of Pannone’s appearances have come from the bullpen during his MLB career, so this new role of becoming a starter could take some getting used to.

A big thing working in Pannone’s favor tonight is that the Royals are striking out at a massive 28.2% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

All in all, we’re looking for Keller and his glorious numbers at home to carry us to the under in this one. The SpreadKnowledge system also has a strong B-grade on the Royals tonight, so obviously, we’ll take them here to win too.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 1

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, July 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 161-131-7 (55.1%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 10 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: Domingo German – R (12-2, 4.03 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5-9, 4.00 ERA/1.08 WHIP)

It’s a special treat for the SpreadKnowledge supporters, as tonight’s free pick comes to us from Sunday Night Baseball. We’ve seen these two teams slug it out against one another plenty of times lately, but this game is going to be quite different with two talented pitchers on the mound.

Vegas has put its stamp on the game by dropping the game total from 10.5 to 10.0, with both teams – Yankees: -0.4, Red Sox: -0.2 – having decreased IRTs (implied run totals) as well.

The Red Sox will be looking to complete the four-game sweep of the Yankees, and their opportunity is as good as any with Chris Sale on the mound. While it was a tough start to the season for the lanky lefty, he has been virtually unhittable over these last two starts, allowing only six hits and two runs over a span of 12 innings while striking out 22 batters.

While Sale hasn’t been great against the Yankees this season, he should have a much easier time tonight with Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Brett Gardner on the injured list – DJ LeMahieu could be out as well. It’s always an easy cop-out to say anyone “is due,” but with the Red Sox closing in on a four-game sweep and getting themselves back into the thick of the playoff picture, I’d expect Sale to be on top of his game.

Domingo German will be tasked with shutting down the hottest offense in baseball this week, and while I don’t think he can do it fully, he can minimize the damage. One constant from German is his ability to bounce back from a bad outing, and the Yankees will certainly need it, considering how bad their bullpen needs a break.

New York’s starting pitching has been getting absolutely teed off on over the last few games. That motivation of German correcting his own wrongs and giving the bullpen a breather could prove to be beneficial.

All in all, though, there’s too much firepower running hot in this Red Sox lineup and that’ll ultimately give them the edge at some point in this game. Look for Sale to shut down the Yanks, and lead us right into the total going under.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 6 – New York Yankees: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Saturday, July 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 160-129-7 (55.4%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 12 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (5-5, 5.40 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (12-4, 4.10 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game by raising the total from 11.0 to 12.0, with both teams – Red Sox: +0.7, Yankees: +0.3 – getting significant IRT (implied run total) increases.

The Red Sox (611) and Yankees (596) are actually the two highest-scoring teams in MLB this season, and it’s no surprise they’ve been most of this mashing against each other. In the last five meetings between the teams, they’ve combined for totals of 13, 30, 20, 22 and 15.

It looks like that old age is finally starting to catch up to CC Sabathia, and that regression has reared its head in an ugly way. The veteran lefty has now allowed seven homers over his last 17 innings of work while allowing a total of 13 runs (12 ER) over that span.

Also looking grim for Sabathia is the current state of this Red Sox offense, which owns a .377 weighted on-base average and .291 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Good luck with all that, CC.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a fine pitcher, but there are more than enough capable Yankees bats that can make life difficult on him today. New York, like Boston, is hitting left-handed pitching well over the last 21 days, as evidenced by its .337 weighted on-base average and .247 ISO. E-Rod had the benefit of facing a couple of lesser teams during his recent run of good outings, but today will certainly have more difficulty attached to it.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to do some serious damage once again. 10 of the last 14 Red Sox games have gone over the total, while the last eight Yankees games have seen one of the teams score eight runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 10 – New York Yankees: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Friday, July 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 158-128-7 (55.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:10 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (ML: -104) at Milwaukee Brewers
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (7-8, 3.41 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (2-1, 3.60 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Tonight’s free pick is the Cubs winning outright over the Brewers. The SpreadKnowledge system has a B+ grade for Chicago in this meeting and a lot of that has to do with its starting pitcher on the mound.

Kyle Hendricks has done a fine job against this Brewers team over his career, posting an 8-6 record in 20 career starts to go along with a 3.22 ERA/1.13 WHIP. The methodical righty has only allowed nine extra-base hits (7 doubles, 2 HR) in 172 plate appearances to the current Milwaukee roster. Hendricks has looked sharp since coming off the injured list, especially in his last two outings – both of which were quality starts. It’s also worth mentioning, Hendricks has only allowed four hits and two runs in each of his last four starts — all in the month of July.

Gio Gonzalez was shut down for a bit at the end of May with arm fatigue, but he was able to come back and make one start before tonight’s appearance. It wasn’t the greatest outing (4 IP, 5 H/2 BB, 3 ER) against the D-Backs, but they are one of the better teams against left-handed pitching. It’s not like the Cubs are a slouch either, though. There are plenty of right-handed bats in this lineup like Kris Bryant, Javy Baez and Willson Contreras that can make life difficult on Gonzalez. Not to mention, Anthony Rizzo is one of the best left-on-left hitters in all of baseball.

This game will likely have plenty of bullpen pitching in it. However, if the Cubs do indeed get off to an early lead like we think they will, it shouldn’t matter too much, considering the Brewers have the edge there. Nonetheless, we’ll join the rest of Chicago and fly that gorgeous flag.

Cubbies win!

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 4 – Milwaukee Brewers: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Thursday, July 25

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 157-126-7 (55.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: -130)
BAL: Jimmy Yacabonis – R (1-2, 6.95 ERA/1.69 WHIP)
LAA: Jose Suarez – L (2-1, 5.51 ERA/1.56 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from LA-LA Land, as the Angels host the Orioles. We have a B+ grade on this one, so it still comes in as one of our better plays on tonight’s slate.

The Angels have been solid since the break, posting a 9-3 record over that span, including two road wins in each of the last two nights against the cross-town rival Dodgers. Tonight’s opponent is a much easier one to handle, considering they own MLB’s worst record at 32-69.

Jimmy Yacabonis will get the ball for the Orioles, and he’ll have quite the difficult task ahead of him tonight. After getting roped for eight hits and seven runs while only recording one out in his last appearance, Yacabonis will not face an Angels team that has a .340 weighted on-base average and .236 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

We don’t see any way that Yacabonis makes it out of this start alive, so expect to see plenty of those Los Angeles cleats touching home plate tonight.

Jose Suarez will be the latest Angels pitcher to chip in some innings. Ever since the death of Tyler Skaggs and the release of Matt Harvey this team is looking in odd places to figure out their pitching. Suarez hasn’t pitched many innings in each of his seven starts, but he has held teams to three runs or fewer in six of those outings.

It does help Suarez’s case that the Orioles have a well-below average .301 weighted on-base average and 28.5% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Perhaps, we could see the lefty have his best outing of the season – and hopefully, eat up some innings to spell the Angels bullpen a bit.

All in all, we’ll look for the Los Angeles offense to lead the way in this one, but don’t count out Suarez here either.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Wednesday, July 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 153-126-7 (55%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox
MIA: Zac Gallen – R (0-2, 3.63 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (5-8, 5.76 ERA/1.50 WHIP)

Our free pick today comes to us from the land of The Windy City, as the Marlins wrap up their three-game series against the White Sox. The SpreadKnowledge system has a B+ grade on the total going under in this game, considering the current form of the two starting pitchers and the two offenses. Chicago’s offense has posted two runs or fewer in eight of the last 12 games, while Miami’s offense has done the same in six of the last 10.

Zac Gallen has managed to holt the fort down in all five of his starts this season, allowing no more than three runs any time out – all against quality opponents. We’d like to see him cut down the walks (14 in 22 1/3 innings), but it could work his benefit against a free-swinging White Sox team that has the second-lowest walk-rate (6.5%) in MLB this season.

Not to mention, the White Sox offense has absolutely dreadful advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days — .305 weighted on-base average, .125 ISO (power metric) and 30.4% K-rate.

The team that’s dead-last in walk-rate (6.4%) will be facing Reynaldo Lopez, who has looked absolutely fantastic over his last two starts. Over 13 innings in those outings, Lopez has allowed only nine hits, three walks and two runs while striking out 15 batters. It hasn’t been the most glamorous season for the young righty, but we have seen flashes of dominance from him before and best to strike while the iron is hot.

Miami is either dead-last or right around it in terms of advanced metrics against right-handed pitching this season, so look for Lopez to have one of his best outings to date.

Weather conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field shouldn’t do the offenses any favors tonight, with the winds blowing in slightly at about 5 mph. Obviously, that won’t keep all the balls in the yard, but with the way these two youngsters are hurling it shouldn’t hurt them.

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago White Sox: 4 – Miami Marlins: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, July 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 152-124-7 (55.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -137) at New York Mets
SD: Chris Paddack – R (6-4, 2.70 ERA/0.87 WHIP)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (4-5, 4.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

The Padres have had a rough go of things since the All-Star break, but they do have their best pitcher on the mound and a great matchup with all of their power-right bats to go against a left-handed pitcher. Vegas already put their stamp on this game, giving the Mets a -0.4 implied run total decrease, which is tied for the highest on tonight’s slate.

Chris Paddack has been outstanding this season, and he nearly had a no-hitter in his last start. The rookie righty has been incredibly dominant in his last three outings, allowing a total of six hits and two runs to go along with 22 strikeouts over his last 19 1/3 innings of work.

There’s a little bit of tension in this matchup against the Mets. Earlier this season, Paddack felt like he should have been named the NL Rookie of the Month for April. Pete Alonso of the Mets ended up winning the award, and Paddack said he was “coming for Alonso.” Paddack took that fire into a start earlier this season against New York, getting the win via 7 1/3 innings of scoreless ball. He even struck out Alonso in the first two at-bats.

Jason Vargas is finally starting to come back down to Earth, much to the delight of me and anyone else who loves to pick on the Mets. In the month of July, he has now allowed 12 runs and five homers over 16 1/3 innings of work.

Working against Vargas tonight is San Diego’s lineup, which has plenty of right-handed pop. The first four hitters in their lineup (Tatis Jr., Margot, Machado and Renfroe) all have an ISO/power metric of .250 or more against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. I’m no mathematician, but more at-bats from your power-hitting sources sounds like a great idea to me.

All in all, we’ve got a huge mismatch of starting pitchers that should bode well for San Diego tonight. Look for the Padres to use the long ball to their advantage and get the win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 5 – New York Mets: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 151-122-7 (55.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians (ML: -170) at Toronto Blue Jays
CLE: Mike Clevinger – R (3-2, 3.57 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
TOR: Ryan Borucki – L (season debut)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Indians moneyline (-170) as the third-most outcome on today’s slate, making them one of three teams to receive an A-grade. Cleveland owns a 28-11 record since June 4, which is best in MLB over that span. Not to mention, the Indians swept a four-game series against the Blue Jays earlier this season.

After a couple of rough outings coming off the injured list, Mike Clevinger has gotten back on track with three starts of allowing one run or fewer. In those outings, he pitched a total of 17 innings and allowed only two runs and a 1.00 WHIP while striking out 27 batters.

The Blue Jays 3.9 implied total is the third-lowest on today’s entire schedule of games. For whatever it’s worth, Clevinger pitched five innings of shutout ball against Toronto back on April 7 and struck out 10 batters in the process.

We don’t have much to go on for Ryan Borucki, who has been limited to four minor league rehab outings this season. He will, however, run into a Cleveland offense that has a .366 weighted on-base average and .225 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.
Look for the Indians to keep rolling over a Blue Jays that finally gets to come back home after a tough 10-game road trip to open the second half of the season.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (ML: +217) at Houston Astros
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (8-6, 4.69 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (10-5, 3.12 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system is ranking the A’s as one of the most valuable plays on the board tonight at +217 on the moneyline. It won’t be easy, as the Astros send Gerrit Cole to the mound, but there are a few reasons to think Oakland can pull off the upset on Monday.

Homer Bailey had a solid outing in his first start with the A’s, and he’s certainly capable of a repeat performance in this matchup, albeit against an Astros team that is as good as any in MLB. It is worth noting, though, that Bailey is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA/0.92 WHIP in eight career starts against the Astros.

The A’s will need to be on top of their game if they plan of making up any ground in the AL West race, sitting 6.5 games behind the Astros. They’ll have to go through Cole, who has been on top of his game recently. But there is reason to think we could see him falter a little bit against a talented A’s lineup.

Oakland has zaftig .393 weighted on-base average and .282 ISO numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the A’s have a 21-7 record since June 17, so we’re getting tons of value on a quality team here tonight.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland A’s: 4 – Houston Astros: 3

[9:45 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (ML: -112) at San Francisco Giants
CHC: Alec Mills – R (0-0, 4.50 ERA/1.00 WHIP)
SF: Shaun Anderson – R (3-2, 4.87 ERA/1.50 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Cubs moneyline (-112) as the second-most likely outcome on tonight’s slate. After all, Chicago is 9-3 over the last 12 games and we’re getting an extremely good price on them in a matchup they should excel in.

Shaun Anderson takes the mound for the Giants, and he’s been getting hit around with great regularity. Over his last 13 1/3 innings, Anderson has allowed a total of 22 hits and 13 runs. The Cubs have been finding most of their success lately from the pitching, but this is a great spot for the offense to have a big night at Oracle Park. It’s really been the key players (Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez) in the zone for this team lately, and a couple of good performances from these guys should have them comfortably in the lead for most of the night.

Alec Mills made his season debut on Tuesday, going six innings and allowing three runs. It wasn’t a performance worthy of hanging on our hat on tonight but looking at Mills career numbers, the 1.17 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings show that he’s off to a good start.

The Giants had a string of games where they were pounding the baseball, but their advanced
metrics against right-handed pitching took a big dip upon returning back to their home ballpark. Look for Mills to keep the San Francisco offense at bay for most of the night, and ultimately get the win.

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 148-122-7 (54.8%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -114)
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (1-1, 5.73 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
TB: Blake Snell – L (5-7, 4.55 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

Enough is enough already for the Rays, who have lost five straight games, including the first two of this series against the White Sox. Tampa Bay had a great shot to win yesterday, but it was not meant to be as Chicago engineered a late comeback.

I find it very difficult to believe the visitors will come in here and sweep this series, considering the matchup on the mound today. That’s why we’re rolling with the Rays on the 1.5-run line at -116, as opposed to the massive -270 number on the moneyline.

After a few rough outings, Blake Snell has gotten back on the good foot. The electric lefty has now allowed a total of four runs over his last three starts, with two of them coming against the vaunted Yankees. It does speak for volumes today for the optimism of Snell, considering the White Sox have the lowest implied run total (3.0) of any team on today’s schedule.

Over the last 21 days, the White Sox have an anemic .306 xwOBA (quality of contact) against left-handed pitching. Look for this lineup to struggle once again versus Snell – the current roster owns a massive 39.4% K-rate in 71 combined plate appearances.

Dylan Cease has only made two career MLB starts and the latest one didn’t go so well, allowing eight hits and six runs (four earned) over six innings. Despite the Rays’ recent offensive woes (against a good majority of quality starting pitchers), this is a great spot for them to get back in the win column. Tampa Bay owns the eighth-best wRC+ (108) in baseball against right-handed pitching and they should be able to manufacture some runs against the youngster.

All in all, this is a spot where a team lets their ace go out and do their thing in order to stop a losing streak and avoid the sweep. Look for Snell to have a huge day on the mound and the Rays to get to Cease early.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2

 [4:10 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Angels (ML: -170/1.5-run line: +110) at Seattle Mariners
LAA: Dillon Peters – L (1-0, 4.15 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (4-6, 5.01 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has all the California love today – cue Dr. Dre and Tupac music. In fact, the Angels moneyline (-170) and 1.5-run line (+110) are the second- and third-most likely outcomes in the SK system for the entire day. We’ll play it safe on the moneyline, but just know that the 1.5-run line is certainly there for the taking as well.

Look no further at the reasoning than to Yusei Kikuchi, who has gotten absolutely blasted by Los Angeles this season. Get ready for this one – in four starts against the Halos this season, Kikuchi has allowed 31 hits, 11 walks, 20 runs (19 earned) and six homers over 15 2/3 innings of work. Wow, wow and wow! Seattle has struggled to win ball games when Kikuchi is on the mound, with a 1-8 record over his last nine starts.

We saw the Mariners’ defense cost them last night’s game on an absolutely horrific error on an infield pop-up with two outs in the ninth inning – the Mariners proceeded to give up four runs after that mishap. I have no idea how they pick themselves up off the floor after losing a game in heartbreaking fashion, especially when this team has already had their spirits broken many of times lately.

Dillon Peters will be recalled from Triple-A to make today’s start. He hasn’t done a lot of great things at the MLB level, but it’s not like the Mariners have been consistently putting up big numbers either. Despite Friday’s 10-run outburst, Seattle has scored three runs or fewer in six of its last seven.

Once again, I feel like last night’s loss will have the Mariners in a world of hurt and that they won’t be able to rid. Look for the Halos to take advantage early and often.

The Angels are a whopping 23-5 over the last two seasons when being favored on the road by -125 to -175, while the Mariners are 12-37 versus teams with a winning record this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 13 – Seattle Mariners: 2

[4:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -152)
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (4-0, 1.59 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (8-1, 3.44 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Dodgers moneyline (-280) as the most likely outcome of the entire day, while the 1.5-run line isn’t too far behind. In order to keep things civil, we’ll take the Dodgers on the 1.5-run line and save nearly $170 to lay, in order to win $100.

Walker Buehler has had a couple of funky outings recently, but we really don’t see that being the case today. After all, he’s taking on a Marlins team that either dead-last or bottom-three against most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at the Marlins recent games, only one starting pitcher has allowed more than two runs against them over the last seven contests.
Buehler has been particularly good at home, posting a 3-0 record and 3.16 ERA in eight starts there this season.

Here’s where things get interesting. Jordan Yamamoto has actually been a great find by the Marlins in the Christian Yelich trade. The rookie righty is 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in six starts this season, but this will certainly be his toughest test of the season.

It was a bit peculiar to see the game total increased from 8.0 to 8.5 and the IRTs (implied run totals) – Dodgers: +0.4, Marlins: +0.2 – do the same. To me, that’s a big knock on Yamamoto, considering we all know damn well those increases aren’t speaking to Buehler.

There’s a scenario where this game could come down to the bullpens, and if that’s the case, you have to like the Dodgers chances even more.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – Miami Marlins: 2