Category: Sports

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 211-154-10 (58%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:40 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Arizona D-Backs (1.5-run line: -102)
COL: Chi Chi Rodriguez – R (0-4, 6.57 ERA/1.78 WHIP)
ARZ: Zac Gallen – R (2-3, 2.58 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Diamondbacks-Rockies game. We’re taking the D-Backs on the 1.5-run line, saving a little more than $100 by taking them on the moneyline.

Vegas already put a stamp on this game, giving the Rockies a -0.4 IRT (implied run total) decrease, which is tied for the highest on today’s slate.

Zac Gallen is the key here. Granted, he did allow the most hits (9) in a start of his young MLB career against this same Rockies team, but that game was played at Coors Field – you have to take those performances with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, Gallen only allowed two runs and Arizona walked away with the 9-3 victory.

Whether it’s been the D-Backs or Rays that Gallen has pitched for this season, we’ve been on his side more often than not. In nine starts this season, Gallen has allowed more than two runs only once this season.

Gallen should benefit from facing a Rockies team that has a below-average .304 weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Chi Chi Gonzalez may have a fun name to say, but his pitching skills don’t live up to that level of excitement. He won’t last too long into this start before we see the Rockies’ bullpen, and that’s just good news all around for the D-Backs. In fact, the Rockies have lost every single one of Gonzalez’s starts this season, all of them coming by two runs or more.

All in all, we’ve got a huge mismatch of starting pitchers here and that’ll lead us to cover the run-line in this one.

* Final Score Prediction * Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 – Colorado Rockies: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 211-151-10 (58.3%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 46-19-4 record over the last 69 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[3:05 p.m. EST] Over 14 – Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
MIA: Jordan Yamamoto – R (4-4, 4.42 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-3, 6.75 ERA/1.60 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the total on the Marlins-Rockies game on Sunday. We’ve got an A-grade for the total going over in this one, with plenty of reasons to believe so. The weather in Denver should be perfect for hitting, with temperatures in the 90s for most of the day.

Hot temperatures + bats + baseballs = home runs.

Vegas already puts its stamp on this game by increasing the game total from 13.0 to 14.0 and IRTs (implied run totals) for both teams – Rockies: +0.9, Marlins: +0.2. Colorado initially had the second-highest IRT to start the day, but its 8.1 IRT and +0.9 IRT increase are both tops on the slate now. Miami’s 6.1 IRT is the third-highest for any team on today’s entire schedule of games.

After a handful of dominant outings to begin his MLB career, it looks like the league has finally figured out Jordan Yamamoto. The rookie right-hander has now allowed at least four runs in each of his last five outings.

The Rockies have scored at least six runs in four of the last six games, so it’s good to see their offense getting back on track. We mentioned it in Friday’s article, but Charlie Blackmon’s home/road splits (obviously favoring him at Coors Field) are truly something else. With Blackmon setting the table, look for the Rockies to put a respectable number of runs on the board and get us comfortably over the total.

Peter Lambert has not been good at Coors Field, posting a 7.01 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over 34 2/3 innings of work. While the Marlins have only scored four runs in their trip to Denver so far, it’s quite telling for them to have the third-highest IRT on the entire slate.

Look for the Rockies to be the catalyst in getting us over the total, but we should definitely expect the Marlins to chip away at this as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – Miami Marlins: 7

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 210-149-10 (58.5%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 45-17-4 record over the last 66 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -105)

SD: Dinelson Lamet – R (1-2, 3.86 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (7-11, 4.49 ERA/1.37 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Phillies winning over the Padres. Philly is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now with four straight wins, scoring 30 runs over that stretch. San Diego has lost four of its last five games.

Zach Eflin could very well be the key to this victory tonight. After all, he’s pitched much better of late since going to the bullpen and this will be his first start since the move. Eflin had a string of bad outings against quality opponents like the Braves, Dodgers and Mets, but the Padres team he’ll be facing tonight has woeful .274 weighted on-base average, .151 ISO (power metric) and 34% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

When looking at this matchup, Vegas is giving a bit more credit to Dinelson Lamet than it should. Granted, he is one of the talented up-and-coming arms in baseball, but Lamet does have control issues from time-to-time and hasn’t really gone that deep into games since returning from a 15-month layoff from Tommy John surgery.

As we mentioned at the top, Philly’s offense is rocking and rolling right now and this comes just a few days after former Phillies coach Charlie Manuel took over as the new hitting coach. Philly has been solid in general against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting .349 xwOBA (quality of contact) numbers – their .305 weighted on-base average in that time frame shows how unlucky they had been, and now that success has finally come around.

This could very well end up being a close game, but the value we’re getting on Philly is just too much to pass up. Look for this game to get off to a slow start offensively, but the Phils to take control late and come out victorious.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Friday, August 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 208-148-10 (58%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 43-16-4 record over the last 63 premium picks — these do not include free picks. We had a tough Wednesday, going winless (with one push) on our for premium picks. It’s a great day to bounce back!

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

 

[8:40 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -132)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-10, 4.44 ERA/1.44 WHIP)
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-8, 4.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Rockies beating the Marlins by a healthy margin. After all, Vegas made a massive statement on this game, giving Colorado a +0.7 IRT (implied run total) increase while Miami received a slight -0.1 decrease.

Jon Gray takes the ball for the Rockies, and he’ll face a Marlins team with anemic .258 weighted on-base average, .106 ISO (power metric) and 28.7% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Granted, Miami did a number on Walker Buehler and Los Angeles yesterday, but we all know how crazy afternoon baseball can be. We certainly won’t hold a misnomer of a performance like that against Buehler, and we should also not get too giddy about the Marlins’ offense after that either.

Not to mention, the Rockies had Thursday off while the Marlins had to make the long trip out to the high altitude of Denver. There have been plenty of teams that struggled in this scenario before – we’ll take our chances and bet one of the worst teams in baseball will do just the same, if not, even more.

Sandy Alcantara had a good performance against the Rockies earlier this season, but that was in Miami – pitching at Coors Field is a much more difficult task. Not only that, but the Rockies have a respectable .342 weighted on-base average and are only striking out 16.2% of the time against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

The Marlins allowed 31 runs in three games against the Dodgers prior to flying out to Denver. That certainly doesn’t bode well for a team moving into a much more friendly hitter’s environment.

A big key for the Rockies’ success tonight will be leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon, who owns massive home/road splits. At Coors Field, he is hitting .411 (.461 OBP) while only posting a .252 average (.287 OBP) on the road. When Blackmon is getting on base, this Rockies team is a lot more dynamic and that really sets the table for guys like Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado behind him.

Look for the Rockies to put a world of hurt on the Marlins tonight, leading us to victory in this bet.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – Miami Marlins: 4

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Thursday, August 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 207-148-10 (58%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 43-16-4 record over the last 63 premium picks — these do not include free picks. We had a tough Wednesday, going winless (with one push) on our for premium picks. It’s a great day to bounce back!

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:05 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -116) at Texas Rangers
MIN: Michael Pineda – R (7-5, 4.15 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
TEX: Pedro Payano – R (1-1, 3.86 ERA/1.71 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Rangers-Twins game on Thursday. We’re taking the Twins on the 1.5-run line saving some money to lay in the process. After all, the Twins +0.6 IRT (implied run total) increase is the second-highest on tonight’s slate.

Michael Pineda makes his return off a brief stint on the injured list. He’ll be facing a Rangers team that has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last nine games. Looking at Texas over a slightly larger scope, its offense owns dreadful .292 weighted on-base average, .155 ISO (power metric) and 27.5 K-rate numbers over the last 21 days.

Pineda got off to a rough start this season, but he was simply masterful before hitting the IL, allowing three runs or fewer in each of his last six starts – two runs or fewer in five of those, one run or fewer in four.

Pedro Payano probably won’t last long in this game, whether if it’s due to his short leash or ineffectiveness. Payano has walked 10 batters over his last 12 2/3 innings of work, and that’s just not a recipe for success against a team like the Twins.

This game has a total of 12 attached to it, and you have to believe that’s got a lot to do with the Twins in this matchup against Payano – not necessarily the Rangers against Pineda.

Texas has lost six of its last eight games coming into tonight. Look for Minnesota to get the bats going early and often in one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 12 – Texas Rangers: 4

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, August 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 207-145-9 (59%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 43-13-3 record over the last 59 premium picks — these do not include free picks. We had two losses this afternoon, missing on a total and the Yankees didn’t cover the 1.5-run line in a 6-5 win.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 – St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (10-6, 4.01 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-12, 4.09 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Cardinals-Royals game, where we like the total to go under in this one. After all, 11 of the last 13 Cardinals’ games have done just that – three of the Royals’ last four have as well.

Vegas already left its mark on this game, decreasing the game total from 10.0 to 9.5 and IRTs (implied run totals) for each team – Cardinals: -0.3, Royals: -0.2. We’ve also got 8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field, which won’t help the ball carry at all.

Dakota Hudson hasn’t been at his best of late, but tonight’s opponent will give him the chance to get back on the good foot. The Royals have anemic .260 weighted on-base average and .127 ISO (power metric) numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

While Hudson’s numbers could be better, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 19 of his last 20 starts. It’s going deep into games which have plagued him in these last three starts. Even if Hudson can’t make past the fifth inning once again, he’ll hand it off to a Cardinals’ bullpen that owns the fifth-best ERA (3.80) in baseball this season.

Brad Keller has much better numbers at Kaufmann Stadium this season, and he’ll certainly need that trend to continue if KC will have a shot tonight.

I’m not sure if the KC offense hates Keller, but they have only given him seven runs of support over his last four starts. Whether that’s true or just dumb coincidence (it’s probably this), it still bodes well for our chances of the total going under with this trend.

All in all, we’ve got two teams that aren’t lighting up too many scoreboards. The pitchers have some decent qualities that’ll keep the score low enough until the Cardinals’ bullpen shuts this thing down once and for all.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 204-142-9 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 40-10-3 record over the last 53 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!
[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Zac Gallen – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-8, 4.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has been excellent at picking out these unders from games at Coors Field, the greatest hitting park known to man. Well, here we are, back for more with reasons to believe that we’ll see a lower-than-usual total on this game.

Vegas already made adjustments on this game, lowering the game total from 12.5 to 12.0 and decreasing the IRTs (implied runs totals) for both sides – D-Backs: -0.3, Rockies: -0.2.

We’ve pretty much been on Zac Gallen at every step of the way on his MLB journey, and thank goodness for that. The rookie right-hander has been nothing short of magnificent in seven starts with the Marlins and in his D-Backs debut last week, where he threw five innings of one-hit shutout ball with six strikeouts.

In each of Gallen’s last six starts, the game total has never risen above seven runs.
The Rockies’ offense (or team, as a whole) hasn’t been great, especially against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting less-than-average .306 weighted on-base average and .136 ISO (power metric) numbers.

Jon Gray has looked a lot better of late, even though the traditional numbers might not tell that story. For whatever reason, he really struggled against a mess of a Giants team in two starts and then had a bunch of good outings around that one. However, in Gray’s last outing, the defense let him down big time as only three of the seven runs he allowed were earned.

Gray has only allowed six runs in 16 1/3 innings this season against the Rockies, holding them to three runs or fewer in each of his three starts. The D-Backs’ offense has slowed down a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, posting .278 weighted on-base average and .160 ISO numbers.

All in all, we’ve got two starting pitchers that are fully capable of shutting down two struggling offenses and leading us to the under in victorious fashion.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 203-141-9 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 39-9-3 record over the last 51 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!
[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
BAL: Ty Blach – L (0-0, 14.21 ERA/2.84 WHIP)
NYY: Chad Green – R (2-3, 4.82 ERA/1.44 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has lots of confidence on the total in the Orioles-Yankees game going over tonight. And how could it not, when 13 of the 16 matchups have done just that this season.

Yankees’ color commentator/former outfielder Paul O’Neill said it on the postgame show, after their 8-5 victory in Game 1 of the doubleheader this afternoon, but this is just a perfect matchup. Orioles pitchers throw baseballs and Yankees’ hitters bop them over the outfield wall.

Things won’t be getting any better as Baltimore brought Ty Blach aboard by way of San Francisco. Blach has had brief moments of success, but tonight’s matchup against the Yankees will not be one of them. The Bronx Bombers are destroying left-handed pitching over the last 21 days to the tune of a .459 weighted on-base average and .337 ISO (power metric).

The most important piece to this puzzle, though, is the Orioles bullpen which already pitched some innings this afternoon. There’s just not a lot of upside to the team that owns MLB’s worst bullpen ERA at 6.30 this season.

Chad Green will be the opener for the Yankees, but it’s going to be a bullpen day after that. New York really doesn’t have a lot of quality arms available for this game, as it’ll like be Nestor Cores Jr., Brady Lail, Joe Mantiply and Chance Adams doing yeoman’s work.

We talk about this a lot, but for as bad as the Orioles are as a team, they definitely play some exciting ball on the offensive end. Look for them to tack on plenty of runs against some of the Yankees subpar bullpen pitching as well.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 202-140-8 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 38-8-2 record over the last 48 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[4:10 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -110)
ARZ: Mike Leake – R (9-8, 4.24 ERA/1.29 WHIP)
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (11-2, 1.53 ERA/0.94 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the D-Backs at Dodgers game out West. We’ll be taking the Dodgers on the 1.5-run line with nice trends leading the way.

Hyun-Jin Ryu clearly likes sleeping in his own bed, as evidenced by his gaudy 8-0 record and 0.89 ERA/0.79 WHIP in 10 starts at home. The Dodgers are 18-2 in Ryu’s last 20 starts there.

It truly is remarkable what Ryu has been able to do at Chavez Ravine, and he’ll be facing a D-Backs team that hasn’t been doing well against left-handed pitching of late. Arizona hasn’t been able to figure Ryu out yet this season, with only one run against him in 13 innings of work.

Mike Leake will be pitching for the D-Backs… and that’s great news for the Dodgers. Leake has allowed at least eight hits in six of his last eight starts, including 30 total over his last three (18 innings of work).

Los Angeles’s offense hasn’t been at its best lately, but this is a perfect opportunity for them to get back on the good foot. For as good as Ryu has been at home, Leake has been the exact opposite in road starts – he’s 2-6 with a 5.53 ERA and opposing hitters are raking him at a .303 clip.

All in all, it’s a massive mismatch of starting pitcher. Let’s take advantage of that and go with the Dodgers on the 1.5-run line!

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 1

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 199-140-8 (58.6%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 35-8-2 record over the last 45 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: +120)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (4-2, 4.55 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (12-5, 3.61 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Today’s SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Twins covering the 1.5-run line over the Indians. It’s about time Minnesota gets on the board in this series, having already let Cleveland grab a share of the AL Central lead.

Vegas has spoken already, giving the Twins a +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is tied for the highest of any team on today’s MLB schedule.

Thankfully for Minnesota, it’ll have the luxury of putting Jake Odorizzi on the mound. He has absolutely dominated Cleveland this season, posting a 0.71 WHIP while allowing only two runs and striking out 13 batters in 11 1/3 innings.

Odorizzi has been just as good in each of his last two starts overall (@MIA, vs ATL) allowing two runs and striking out 12 batters in 11 2/3 innings of work.

Adam Plutko might look like he has solid numbers of late, but he has lucked out by facing the Royals twice and a struggling Angels team. Nonetheless, Plutko will be running into a desperate Twins team looking to regain that lead in the AL Central.

While the Twins do have Nelson Cruz on the injured list, the top of their lineup (Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario) still has great advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Look for them to be a key factor in the Twins getting back on the good foot tonight.

All in all, the Twins need a huge team performance to stay afloat, they’ll get it. Look for Plutko to take a step back and Minnesota’s offense to get back into rhythm.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 6 – Cleveland Indians: 2