Category: Sports

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (season debut)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

Two very hittable southpaws go up against one another at Citi Field, and even though Vegas has lowered the total on this game, I see it going the other way. What’s interesting here too is the wind that’ll be blowing in from right field. The way Citi Field is designed, that actually creates a Jetstream off the wall behind home plate out to left field.

That’s a perfect scenario for runs, considering the Mets rank fourth in weighted on-base average (wOBA) while the Brewers are eighth.

To be honest, I have no idea why the Brewers brought Gio Gonzalez back. He didn’t pitch well enough in the minors for the Yankees to add him to their minor league roster, but perhaps Milwaukee sees something we don’t. Believe me, I’ll keep searching.

Aside from one start in Philly, Steven Matz has actually been very good this season. However, with all these power righty bats that the Brewers have, I’m not feeling too optimistic about his chances in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – New York Mets: 5 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-3 3.65 ERA)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (2-1, 5.25 ERA)

This is my favorite play of the day, as we have two very underrated pitchers going up against one another. And Vegas has taken notice, dropping the game total from 8.5 to 7.5 – subsequently, the IRT dropped -0.5 for each as well. The weather also comes into play today, with the wind blowing in from right field at about 10 mph.

Jack Flaherty had plenty of tough matchups this season – three against the Brewers, one against the Dodgers, and his easiest came at home against the Padres. Against the Brewers, Flaherty has allowed 13 runs over 13 innings – against everyone else, he has allowed one run over 11 innings. His record and ERA just don’t match up to the type of power-pitcher this guy is, and you can thank the Brewers for that.

Apparently, Sonny Gray really did need to get away from the Yankees. Finally, he is coming back around to be the pitcher we all thought he was. Despite pitching at another hitter’s haven, Gray has only allowed one homer this season – and it didn’t even come in Cincy! The righty actually has 18 strikeouts over his last 11 1/3 innings of work, and it came against good competition (at Dodgers, vs. Braves).

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (-110 ML) at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (3-1, 3.21 ERA)
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (2-1, 3.33 ERA)

The Cubs have a combined .407 batting average and 1.076 OPS in 100 career plate appearances against Luke Weaver. All of that comes from his days with the Cardinals, but it’s certainly something to consider for today’s matchup.

Perhaps, the main reason for loving the Cubbies today is Jose Quintana, who has allowed 14 hits, three walks and two runs while striking out 25 batters over his last 21 innings of work.

Keeping it short and simple, fly the W flag – Cubbies win!

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, April 27 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[2:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -116)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-1, 8.59 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (3-1, 2.97 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios pitching at Target Field. This is a guy who loves sleeping in his own bed and getting that good home cooking. In two home starts this season, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing only six hits, two walks and two runs while striking out 17 over 14 1/3 innings. In fact, he is 20-5 when pitching in Minnesota since 2017.

For the Orioles, it’ll be Dan Straily taking the mound, and he has been nowhere near as efficient as his counterpart this season. Straily, who has surrendered seven homers over 14 2/3 innings this season, will be facing a deadly Twins lineup that is tied for fifth-most in MLB – despite playing the fewest games of any team. Not to mention, Minnesota hit five homers last night against Baltimore pitching.

The scene is set this afternoon for a comfortable Twins victory, so we’ll take them on the 1.5-run line and only lay -116 as opposed to the massive -260 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (0-2, 3.52 ERA)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-1, 5.89 ERA)

The Reds exploded for 12 runs last night and will have a great chance to start another carousel around the basepaths against Dakota Hudson, who has a massive 2.09 WHIP this season. Not to mention, he has allowed eight homers over 18 1/3 innings of work. With the wind blowing out to left field at about 14-16 mph during the game, this could definitely be problematic for Hudson and the Cardinals if he continues those lackluster ways.

Tyler Mahle takes the hill for Cincy, coming off two rough outings out West, where he allowed 18 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. Just like Hudson, if he continues to allow baserunners to get aboard, we could see some big blasts that bring those guys around to home plate.

I do feel like the Reds come back with another victory in this one, but you would have to expect the Cardinals to put up a good fight after getting embarrassed at home last night – that doesn’t happen often.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[3:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (2-1, 2.77 ERA)

The A’s have not been able to figure out Blue Jays’ pitching, only scoring eight runs over the four matchups this season. And it won’t get any easier today as Aaron Sanchez takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA. This will only be the second start at Rogers Centre for Sanchez this season, but we’re looking for him to be quite comfortable in the friendly home confines.

The lefty Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, and he has been able to limit opposing hitters to one home run over 26 2/3 innings this season. Anderson has been able to wiggle his way out of a few jams early on, but it’s a good sign that his control has been intact, allowing two walks or fewer in four of his five starts.

The IRT in this game came down a half-run to nine, so Vegas is thinking both starters should be quite effective in this matchup. I’ll have to agree and put my money on the under this afternoon.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, April 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We’re back and fully recharged from the Betting on Sports America Conference in Secaucus, NJ. A big thanks go out to everyone that set up the great event and the attendees that stopped by the SpreadKnowledge booth. You’re all welcome for the orange pens!

There might be two games (Brewers-Mets & Marlins-Phillies) threatened by the inclement weather but plenty of other action going on around MLB tonight for us to take advantage of.

[7:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (2-2, 8.28 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-3, 1.76 ERA)

The current Blue Jays’ roster hasn’t seen much of Mike Fiers, but when they have – oh my goodness. Toronto’s roster has a combined .362 batting average and 1.005 OPS in 49 career plate appearances, which is mind-blowing, considering Justin Smoak’s 2-for-12 (with 6 Ks) mark is holding the numbers back somewhat. Fiers has just flat out sucked over his last three starts, allowing six runs in each of them and a total of 23 hits and five homers over the last 10 innings. Yikes!

Marcus Stroman hasn’t had the best luck, as you can see from his 1-3 record to go along with the microscopic 1.76 ERA. But he did skill this same A’s team in his last start, allowing only one run over eight innings. It is, however, a very tough proposition to be that successful against a team for the second time in as many starts.

One other factor is the MLB debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr. tonight, which should have quite an electric feel in the ballpark. I’d expect all of these hitters to be at the top of their games with the spotlight shining a little brighter than usual for an A’s-Blue Jays game. Also, both teams (A’s: +0.3, Blue Jays: +0.2) had their respective IRTs increase slightly, thus hinting to some additional offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 5 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (0-1, 5.59 ERA)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (2-1, 4.97 ERA)

With the exception of Yadier Molina (3-for-22, 4 Ks) and Kolten Wong (0-for-15, 7 Ks), a lot of these Cardinals hitters have made life a living hell for Anthony DeSclafani. In fact, their current roster holds a combined .286 batting average and .891 OPS against DeSclafani in 143 career plate appearances. Much of that is due to the big boppers on St. Louis, Matt Carpenter (9-for-22, 3 HR, 1.536 OPS) and Paul Goldschmidt (8-for-13, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 1.720 OPS).

Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the Cards, and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling from his last outing against the Mets. The 30-year-old righty only allowed four hits, two walks and two runs over eight innings – clearly his best start of the season. After losing his season debut, Mikolas has rebounded with a 2-0 record over the team’s last four starts, and the Cardinals are undefeated in each of those four starts.

Look for St. Louis to stay on the good foot and win for the fifth straight time that Mikolas starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 3 *

[9:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (1-3 3.54 ERA)
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 3.95 ERA)

Apparently, the theme of the evening is pitchers facing the team they just saw in their previous start. Both of these guys pitched very well at Wrigley Field last weekend, albeit in conditions that were not favorable for offenses. In fact, every single game of last weekend’s Cubs-Diamondbacks went under the total.

Well, Vegas thinks we’ll see a much different type of game as the total has jumped from 8.5 to 9. 5 – that gives us IRT increases (Cubs: +0.6, D-Backs: +0.4) as well. And I agree in thinking we’ll see plenty of runs in the desert tonight.

While Robbie Ray usually gets a good number of strikeouts, he has allowed at least four walks in three of his five starts this season. The Cubs didn’t have an answer for him and the D-Backs bullpen last weekend, but seeing Ray for the second time in five days should give their offense the upper hand.

I’ve never been a fan of Kyle Hendricks, but he did make the D-Backs look silly with 11 strikeouts over seven innings. Once again, I do think there’s a big advantage for offenses twice within a week. Prior to that last outing against Arizona, Hendricks had allowed 14 runs (eight earned) and struck out 10 batters over 13 1/3 innings of work. Look for him to come back down to Earth tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We had some great data on the Mets-Phillies and Red Sox-Tigers games for Monday night. Unfortunately, those games look like they’ll be completely washed out by the rain. But don’t you worry, folks. Spread Knowledge will move past the inclement weather and find this MLB goodness for the people!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-1, 2.64 ERA)
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (3-0, 3.26 ERA)

The total on this game has fallen off a cliff from 8.5 to 7.5, with both teams’ IRT subsequently decreasing as well – Rays: -0.7, Royals: -0.4. A big reason for that is because Rays’ outfielder Austin Meadows landing on the injured list, and that’ll certainly hurt this team which has lost four straight games.

Although I don’t think Meadows’ injury is the end of the world, Vegas certainly seems to think there won’t be many runs in this game. Brad Keller (1.17 WHIP) and Yonny Chirinos (0.83 WHIP) have both done a fantastic job of keeping runners off the basepaths this season, thus giving more evidence to the under in this game.

We’ll keep it short and sweet on this one, giving the Rays the advantage because of their bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (1-2, 4.76 ERA)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-0, 3.94 ERA)

The Implied Run Total (IRT) has jumped up a bit in favor of both teams – Astros: +0.3, Twins: +0.2 – and there’s plenty of artillery to go around to justify such an increase. An Astros’ array of arms that allowed two runs or fewer in five straight games, suddenly coughed up a total of 20 runs in two games over the weekend against the Rangers.

Brad Peacock takes the hill for Houston, and he is typically not someone that will go deep into games. The Astros’ bullpen has been a bit overworked here these last two days, thus setting the scene for a tough battle against the Twins tonight. Not to mention, Peacock is 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA over his career in seven appearances against Minnesota.

Jake Odorizzi goes for the Twins, and while the righty does own a 3-1 mark and 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Astros, he did get roughed up for six runs and nine hits over 10 2/3 innings against them last season. Minnesota’s bullpen had a busy weekend itself, playing a doubleheader in Baltimore on Saturday and then using three of its better relievers for an inning yesterday.

All of those factors, combined with an Astros’ offense that scored at least seven runs in four of the last five games, make this an appealing bet on the over.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Minnesota Twins: 5 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-104)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (0-2, 7.23 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (0-2, 9.64 ERA)

We could easily call this a logistics nightmare for the Yankees, having to fly all the way across the country after playing a Sunday afternoon game, while the Angels stayed put in Southern California. But have you seen what the Yanks’ lineup is going to look like without Aaron Judge? Yikes!

While Matt Harvey is not the same guy from the days of being labeled the “Dark Knight,” I do think this is an opportune time for him to get back on the good foot. After all, Harvey’s four starts this season have been against solid offenses of the Rangers (twice), Brewers and Athletics, the latter of which was his best. Given the Yanks’ itinerary ahead of tonight’s matchup, I feel like Harvey has an outing that is good enough to get the Halos the victory.

J.A. Happ has not lived up to the billing for the Yankees this season, but he did finally make it out of the fifth inning in his last – something he was unable to do in the first three starts. It’s still worth noting, however, that Happ has allowed six home runs in 18 2/3 innings of work this season — and that’s against the Orioles (twice), White Sox and Red Sox. It’s possible that Happ is motivated to pitch much better with a B- or C-list roster behind him, but I still feel like the Angels are the more talented team in this current-day scenario.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – New York Yankees: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Easter Sunday, April 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Picks

[2:20 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (0-1, 4.64 ERA)
CHC: Tyler Chatwood – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

The bullpens for the D-Backs (5.35) and Cubs (5.22) have the third- and fourth-worst ERAs in baseball. So why the hell have we seen the first two games of this series go under? Wind, damnit! In each of the first two games, the wind was howling in from left field at about 15-17 mph on Friday and Saturday. We should have a different story today, though, with the winds getting out of left field at about 7-10 mph during the game.

Robbie Ray has excellent strikeout ability but did allow four or more walks in three of his four starts this season. The Cubs’ offense has brutal numbers lifetime against Ray, but this is a much different lefty than they’ve seen in the past.

Tyler Chatwood is absolutely terrible. While we shouldn’t see too much of him, this guy’s time on the mound can usually be quite efficient for opposing offenses. Chatwood never has good control and you almost guarantee that ducks will be on the pond all day for D-Backs’ hitters.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 * 

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-1, 3.86 ERA)
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (1-1, 5.87 ERA)

Mike Leake is allowing plenty of baserunners (at least seven in all of four starts), but he has done a fine job of limiting the damage, surrendering only two runs each in three of those four starts. Well, that luck may run out today, because Leake is facing an Angels’ roster that has a collective .354 batting average and .937 OPS against him.

Jaime Barria is a pitcher who I’ve had absolutely zero faith in since he made his MLB debut last season. He’s a soft-tossing righty that seems to get away with a ton of mistakes, and that’ll be a lot harder to do today against a potent Mariners offense. The Angels’ bullpen does have the fourth-best ERA (3.36) in the American League this season but the hope is that the Mariners tee off on Barria quite a bit before we see them.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 4 * 

[7:00 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Indians
ATL: Max Fried – L (2-0, 0.92 ERA)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-0, 1.71 ERA)

Max Fried and Shane Bieber have been two of the season’s most pleasant surprises, and now they’ll have the chance to go toe-to-toe against one another on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. It’s interesting that both guys actually made their season debuts out of the bullpen, but now they’re front and center doing big things for their respective team’s rotations.

With the two teams playing a doubleheader yesterday, look for each guy to collect their usual quality outing of at least six innings, and possibly even get an additional one to let the bullpen get some extra rest.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Atlanta Braves: 2 * 

MLB Betting Value Plays for Friday, April 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Betting Value Plays

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (1-2, 7.98 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 1.93 ERA)

We talked about it the other day, but these Rays’ bullpens games have become a real burden on opposing offenses over the last couple of seasons. Ryne Stanek will “start” his fifth game of the season, second this week, but only go one or two innings before handing it off the bullpen with the fourth-best ERA (3.56) in the American League.

It will be interesting, though, to see how that Tampa Bay bullpen comes back one night after losing the finale of its three-game series against Baltimore. The Rays had a bullpen game on Thursday and wound up using six different relievers in the loss. Luckily, the Red Sox offense has been uncharacteristically stagnant this week, scoring a total of eight runs over the last four games.

Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Boston, and he’s coming off his best start of the season. The young lefty has been roughed up in two road starts to open the 2019 campaign, but everyone is well-aware that Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL in basically Fenway Park South. Not to mention, it’s an indoor environment that pitchers absolutely love.

The key here is the Implied Run Totals (IRT) for the two teams, which have both decreased by -0.3 each. When a decrease of that magnitude happens for both sides, it’s usually a great sign for the pitchers. It’s also worth noting that each of the last four Boston games has landed under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 – Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW: Carlos Rodon – L (2-2, 3.57 ERA)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann (0-2, 4.29 ERA)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight in Detroit, but the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at a whopping 19 mph during the game. I’ve got nothing but love for conditions like that and Vegas has already taken notice, jumping the IRT up for both teams (White Sox: +0.4, Tigers: +0.6) and the game total an entire run, from 7.5 to 8.5. All the trends we look for on a daily basis are right there for the taking, and we’ll do exactly that.

It also helps that the White Sox have hit Jordan Zimmermann very well of the course of time, with their current roster owning a collective .311 batting average and .896 OPS against him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+104)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-1, 4.86 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (1-0, 2.65 ERA)

I’m going with the upset here, even though Vegas doesn’t think that it’ll be much of one. Miami’s moneyline had an increase of +21 (+125 to +104) and Washington’s had a decrease of -23 (-135 to -112) – respectively, two of the highest shifts on tonight’s slate, in separate directions.

Caleb Smith takes the hill for the Marlins, and he has been outstanding this season against stiff NL East competition. The dazzling lefty owns a 0.88 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run at Marlins Park in 11 innings of work.

Miami hasn’t been winning a lot of games but tonight’s moneyline odds are the best it has seen all season. Usually, that’s a good sign of things to come. Not to mention, Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in all of MLB – more than about 1.5 runs worse than Baltimore. Yikes!

Fish for the upset!

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 4 – Washington Nationals: 1 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -140/-225 ML) at Texas Rangers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (2-0, 3.52 ERA)
TEX: Drew Smyly – L (0-1, 7.15 ERA)

Last, but certainly not least, Justin Verlander is up to his usual shtick. The veteran righty owns a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Tonight, Verlander faces a Rangers team whose current roster owns a collective .286 on-base percentage and 31.8% K-rate against him.

Drew Smyly goes for the Rangers, and he’ll have his hands full against a very heavy right-handed lineup that can rip the ball all over Globe Life Park – one of the best yards for hitters in all of MLB. The Astros just had their 10-game winning streak snapped, in which they had a run differential of +29 in that span, with five of those last six victories coming by more than one run. You do get some relief by taking them as favorites on the 1.5-run line, as opposed to laying -225 on the moneyline.

I’d look for Houston to get back on the good foot tonight, especially with the pitching matchup having such a wide gap of credibility.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

NBA Playoffs Value Bets for Thursday, April 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 228 – Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets

If you haven’t been near a TV set this past week, let me fill you in – these two teams don’t like each other. Not only that, but the Brooklyn crowd will be going absolutely bonkers for its first home playoff game since 2015, which actually seems a lot longer than that. Add in the mix of Philly fans that are likely to make the trip down I-95 to Barclays Center, and we’re looking at one of the more electric atmospheres for any first-round matchup.

So, what does it all mean? Excitement, and plenty of it. In fact, four of the six meetings (regular season and playoffs) between these two teams have resulted in the total going over. Looking deeper into it, both teams scored at least 110 points in those four games and at least 123 in three of the six.

The Nets know the only way they’re beating the 76ers is by outscoring them… duh. But most of Brooklyn’s best defensive efforts held Philly to a high total throughout the year. The only time one of these teams didn’t reach 100 was back in the first meeting on Nov. 4 when the 76ers lost 122-97.

All in all, these teams are going to score, and you don’t want to be the stick in the mud that takes the under in this one.

[9:10 p.m. EST] Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs (-4, -174 ML)

This series has been sort awkward, in that Games 1 and 2 weren’t really close until the fourth quarter. The Spurs lost their way late in that last game but completed the mission by taking back homecourt advantage in the best-of-seven battle. If it weren’t for a magical second-half performance from Jamal Murray in Game 2, San Antonio would be looking to put Denver in a deep 0-3 hole.

The Spurs have shown they are more than capable of handling their counterparts in this series. With the scene shifting back to AT&T Center, look for San Antonio to capitalize on the strides they’ve made so far. After all, the Spurs went 32-9 at AT&T Center this season and the Nuggets haven’t won there since March 2012.

If bettors needed a reminder, the Spurs had the second-best odds (OKC was first) of any underdog to win a first-round series, and that has now changed after the Thunder fell in an 0-2 hole. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, San Antonio now has the best odds (+122) of all underdogs to win a first-round series. I’m no mathematician, but that’s a pretty good indication of an upset going down.

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of tonight’s NBA slate is the Spurs on the moneyline. However, the four-point spread shouldn’t be that tough to hit either, but you’ll be laying more money out to do so.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (+8.5/+300 ML)

The almighty Warriors couldn’t possibly lose two straight first-round games to the Clippers, could they? Well, according to our Value Picks section, the Clippers on the moneyline has the highest SK Trend Confidence of the NBA slate. Reason being, you only have to lay $100 in order to bring back $300 in return.

It’s not totally out of the question either, consider Los Angeles did pull the major upset in Game 2 after being down 31 points, and now have the momentum coming into Game 3. Fans around the globe will certainly tune in to see how Golden State comes out in this game, and there could be some bumps in the road as they learn to cope without DeMarcus Cousins. Granted, the Warriors have had plenty of success without him before, but this is a scrappy and well-coached Clippers team that has a ton of pesky competitors on their side.

Golden State seems to have no answer in this series for Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrel, who have been excellent as always off the bench. And, of course, we can’t forget the impact Patrick Beverley has had in pestering Kevin Durant whenever possible.

The Warriors might eventually win this series, but the SK system sees a few trends that’ll ultimately make that goal a little tougher to reach — starting tonight. If the moneyline seems too risky, going with the Clippers +8.5 could end up being more ideal for bettors. After all, 95% of the public’s money is on the Warriors, and most know that running the opposite way of the public has worked plenty of times before.

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 207 – Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of the night for NBA is the under on tonight’s game between the Celtics and Pacers. Neither team shot the ball well in Boston’s 84-74 victory in Game 1 on Sunday, and we’re probably going to see more of the same since both teams were solid on the defensive end during the regular season – Indiana ranked third in defensive efficiency while Boston was sixth.

This could also be a game that the Celtics simply run away with, leaving the Pacers in the dust. Indy did fine, in terms of scoring points without Victor Oladipo most the season, but the playoffs are a much different game – especially with Brad Stevens coaching a focused Boston team.

The 207 total that Vegas placed on this game seems to tell the story beforehand, just as the 210.5 total did in Game 1.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Under 214 – Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets

Well, the SK Trend Confidence isn’t liking too many points in the NBA tonight, as the highest grade of the slate belongs to the under in tonight’s game between the Jazz and Rockets. Game 1 of this series wasn’t even close, a 32-point Houston victory, but I wouldn’t expect the same to go down tonight. Utah is incredibly well-coached and plays a very stingy brand of defense. Look for them to make the necessary adjustments and give James Harden & Co. a tougher time than usual scoring the basketball.

Although Game 1 was a much different story, the Jazz did hold the Rockets under 100 points in three of the four regular-season meetings. The only game which Utah did not, Houston scored 102 points.

On a side note, I do think the Jazz cover the 6.5-point spread and possibly, even win outright.

MLB Value Bets

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -128)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-2, 3.32 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 2.16 ERA)

I’m a big fan of taking the Rays when it’s one of their patented “bullpen games.” Reason being, they can play their best hand in most individual matchups, whereas your typical starter could get knocked around for the first few innings. Ryne Stanek will typically go one or two innings and then hand it over to the bullpen that has the seventh-best ERA (3.53) in MLB. Not to mention, Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks in the top-five of most fancy analytic numbers that bore most people to death – not me.

After a slow start, the Rays’ offense now has at least eight runs in four of the last six games and that should play well against David Hess, who has allowed four homers and seven runs over his last 10 2/3 innings of work. If Hess can’t stay in the game long enough, Tampa Bay will have the benefit of facing Baltimore’s bullpen, which ranks dead-last for ERA (6.96) in the American League this season and second-worst in all of MLB.

The Rays’ -270 moneyline is a bit more than most people would be willing to lay, so going with the 1.5-run line lessens that quite a bit.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

 [7:20 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-1.5, +118)
ARZ: Zack Godley – R (1-1, 7.41 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-1, 2.84 ERA)

The Braves’ offense looks dialed in at the moment, with 44 runs in their last seven games. Tonight’s matchup against Zack Godley is a nice one, considering he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 17 innings of work. Atlanta’s -160 moneyline matches its second-highest of the season, thus illuminating how much of a great spot they’re in.

Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are a combined 11-for-26 (.423 avg.) lifetime against Godley. It’s also worth noting that Arizona’s bullpen has the second-worst ERA (6.04) in the National League and fourth-worst in all of MLB.

Kevin Gausman goes for the Braves, and while he didn’t have his best stuff in that last outing against the Mets, this is a guy that is capable of shutting any team down on a given night. I’ll place my faith in a talented pitcher more often than not and feel like he can at least do enough to keep the D-Backs down for most of the night.

Going with the +118 1.5-run line, you’re able to make a small profit, as opposed to shelling out more on the moneyline to earn less.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 9 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 4 *

MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* MLB Picks have been running hot this season, going 22-11-2 in the Value Bets article! *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (1-1, 7.47 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (2-1, 2.25 ERA)

Zack Wheeler had his best outing of the season last time out, so I guess his key to success is just not facing the Nationals? Maybe not, but Wheeler does have solid have numbers against most of the Phils’ lineup and should be able to build off that last performance.

Jake Arrieta has only allowed five runs over his first 20 innings of the season and finally kept the walks to a minimum after allowing six of them on a chilly Sunday night game against the Braves.

The Mets will be without leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo and that could be an issue for a team that relies on his hustle, with not much of that coming from anywhere else in the lineup. Also, the Phils will be without one of their best hitters, Jean Segura.

The bullpens have been used quite a bit over the last few days, so I’d expect both starters to go six (maybe even seven) innings today and be masterful in the process. Not to mention, we have already seen a total of 30 runs in the first two games of this series – we’re due for an under.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3 *

[1:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
STL: Michael Wacha – R (0-0, 5.28 ERA)
MIL: Corbin Burnes – R (0-1, 10.05 ERA)

The Brewers and Cardinals have faced each other six times already this season, all at Miller Park, and combined to score at least nine runs in five of those games. Well, be prepared to see it happen for the sixth time in seven games.

Michael Wacha is putting a ton of runners on base (1.83 WHIP) and that’s just not a good recipe for success against the Brewers, who rank fifth in RBI (96) and seventh in on-base percentage (.347) in MLB. To make the over even more glamorous, Corbin Burnes is also putting guys on base (1.88 WHIP) and he’s allowed three homers in each of his three starts this season. There will be plenty of baserunners, with great offenses to knock them in.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 8 – Milwaukee Brewers: 7 *

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *