Author: Al Walsh

MLB & NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 59-38-4 (61%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -230) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (6-1, 2.51 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-1, 15.75 ERA/2.75 WHIP)

So, this is awkward. Justin Verlander will return to the only MLB city he called home before accepting a trade to Houston back in 2017.

Verlander has been absolutely phenomenal this season, allowing one run or fewer in six of his nine starts, while Detroit’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers have well below-average numbers in the same split.

This just isn’t going to end well for Detroit, losers of the first two games in this series by a combined score of 19-5. Houston’s offense is rocking and rolling over the last four games, with a total of 45 runs – the same amount as Miami has scored since April 21. Not to mention, the Astros’ offense ranks near the top of MLB in nearly every advanced metric, while owning absolutely gorgeous numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I talked about it yesterday, but it’s quite telling when you see a team with zaftig juice on the 1.5-run line. The Astros are listed at -230 in that regard, in comparison to the -350 moneyline odds. Also, the IRTs for both teams are unlike anything you’ll ever see, as the Astros are at 6.7 while the Tigers are at 3.5 – that type of differential is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-120) – Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-3, 2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-4, 6.07 ERA/1.49 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the night in MLB is the under in this game, and that makes plenty of sense with Mike Minor on the mound for the Rangers. The made-over lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and even held his own against the hottest lineup in baseball during his last start against the Astros.

KC has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, owning the fourth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .281) in that split. Not to mention, things haven’t gotten any better over the last 14 days.

While Jorge Lopez has given up a decent number of runs, he has gone at least six innings in five of the last seven outings. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been particularly great against right-handed pitching, with a combined .274 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Minor is clearly the better pitcher here, so I expect him to get the win. Lopez can at least hold his own for a while and not let this thing get out of hand.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:30 p.m. EST] Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -115)

We’ve got some NBA action for the people tonight! The top SK Trend Confidence rating is on the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread, considering they have covered eight of their nine games during the playoffs. I typically don’t bet many NBA games prior to tip-off, opting for the live bets, but tonight is a special occasion.

The Bucks’ roster is miles ahead of the Raptors, who are coming off an emotionally-draining seven-games series against the 76ers. Just as we saw last night in the Trail Blazers-Warriors matchup, Portland wasn’t able to muster enough energy for its new opponent. There’s something to be said about carrying over the same intensity from one series to another – it’s remarkably tough and takes time to make the necessary adjustments.

When looking at Toronto’s roster, there’s not much there. Kawhi Leonard is basically all the Raptors have working for them, and that was evident towards the end of that last series. Sure, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are fine players, but it didn’t even look like they wanted to touch the ball down the stretch of Game 7 against Philly.

Look for the Bucks to neutralize Kawhi and make the other role-playing Raptors beat them. Bucks big! #FearTheDear

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 82 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 56-38-4 (60%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Wade Miley – L (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-1, 10.80 ERA)

Ryan Carpenter doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it hasn’t been good. After getting ripped for six runs in five innings during his season debut on Thursday, that upped Carpenter’s WHIP to 1.72 and an opposing batting average of .356 over 27 1/3 career innings of work. Yikes!

We always look at these IRT increases because they tell a story about the game before the first pitch has even been thrown. The Astros rank in the top three of nearly every advanced metric against left-handed pitching. Hence, why they had the highest IRT (5.6) at the open and now the biggest increase (+0.7) moving them to 6.3 – a full run more than three teams tied for second-most at 5.2.

Wade Miley should get plenty of run support from the Houston offense, which is always a benefit pitching for this team. The Astros have won the lefty’s last four starts by a combined score of 32-9, with all of them coming by two runs or more. Miley has four quality starts in his last five outings, and in the only misnomer, he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed one run.

The Astros are going to tear these Tigers apart, as evidenced by the massive -144 juice on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 11 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
TB: Charlie Morton – R (3-0, 2.64 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.11 ERA)

Both of these pitchers have been outstanding this season with a sub-three ERA and we’ve got the advanced metrics to prove how effective they’ll be tonight.

The Rays have the highest K-rate (30.6%) against left-handed pitching, while Caleb Smith has a 0.89 WHIP and 56 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings. Any questions?

The Marlins have the highest K-rate (27.1%) with the lowest wOBA (.263), wRC+ (65) and ISO (.089) against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton has been more hittable than Smith, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season. It never gets old ripping on Miami’s offense, which has posted two runs or fewer in eight of its last nine games.

I get it, taking the under on 6.5 runs will be about two-to-three hours of nervous reckoning, but you should have plenty of confidence with Morton and Smith going toe-to-toe.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-138 ML, 1.5-run line: +132)
TEX: Shelby Miller – R (1-2, 7.48 ERA)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (1-1, 3.06 ERA)

It’s quite telling to see the Royals in that grouping of teams tied for the second-highest IRT (5.2) on the slate. There’s a good reason, though, as the Rangers will have Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller does have a massive 1.92 WHIP and Kansas City has above-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. KC can beat up on Miller early and then get to the Texas bullpen, which has the sixth-highest xFIP (4.64) in all of baseball over the last 14 days.

Danny Duffy gets himself a fantastic matchup here too, as the Rangers have the third-highest K-rate (28.4%) against left-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but Texas is striking out at a 34.9% clip against lefties over the last 14 days.

I could go either way here on the moneyline or 1.5-run line with KC. You don’t have to risk much on the moneyline and it’s a nice little plus-score on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 55-37-4 (60%) *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, +130)
LAA: Tyler Skaggs – L (3-3, 4.70 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (6-1, 2.53 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios at Target Field – the only guarantees in life. The righty is 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in four starts at home this season, pushing his record to 22-5 there since 2017. Overall, he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season, while Angels starter Tyler Skaggs comes in with a 3-3 mark and a 4.70 ERA.

The Twins are 7-1 overall in games that Berrios starts on the mound this season. Five of those wins came by two runs or more, including the last three of his starts by a combined scored of 20-4. Berrios has only produced one non-quality start in eight outings, and the Twins still won that game.

The moneyline has the Minnesota Twins -132. I do think the line here is a bit miscalculated for the Twins with Berrios on the mound, and we should definitely take advantage of that. The Angels have played such an easy schedule of late against teams like the Royals, Blue Jays, Tigers and Orioles. But when they played a competent team like the Astros, the Angels lost by a combined score of 24-6.

Minnesota will be without Nelson Cruz, who injured his wrist on a swing-and-miss in yesterday’s loss to the Tigers – this could be why the line is a bit lower. Nonetheless, the Twins rank in the top three of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching this season.

Jorge Polanco has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, with a .324 batting average, .393 on-base percentage, and 1.000 OPS. His numbers against lefties aren’t too shabby either, most notably his .293 ISO and a microscopic 13.9% K-rate in that split. If the bullpen comes in, not to worry – Polanco’s switch-hitting ability comes in handy.

Tyler Skaggs has been far worse on the road this season than at home. In 18 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 23 hits, 14 runs (13 earned), four homers and a .311 opposing batting average – that’s a 1-3 record and 6.38 ERA. In Anaheim, it has been a much different story for Skaggs, with a 2-0 record and 2.19 ERA over 12 1/3 innings.

The implied run total increased by a half-run, up to nine, in this game. Look for the Twins to still be a viable offense, even without their big bopper Cruz.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 3 * 

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-110) – Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (3-3, 5.48 ERA)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (2-1, 3.54 ERA)

We’re getting quite a steal on this total, even at nine. The initial total was tabbed at eight, and the sharps jumped on the over at that number. Hence, the reason why we’ve seen IRT increases for both teams (A’s: +0.6, Mariners: +0.4).

Most fly-by baseball fans might think Mike Fiers is on a heater after throwing a no-hitter, but you have to be smarter about this. It took Fiers 131 pitches to reach that achievement in his last outings, meaning he certainly won’t be at his best for this one. Fiers has reached 100 pitches twice this season and gotten roughed up in each of those next outings for a combined 14 hits and nine runs over 8 1/3 innings. Not to mention, the Mariners hammered Fiers in his first start of the season for five runs over three innings.

On the flip side, the A’s have been posting top-five numbers in advanced metrics against left-handed pitching this season. It looks like they’ll be able to get to Kikuchi early on tonight, and it helps that Seattle’s bullpen has allowed a 2.43 WHIP over the last seven days — most in MLB.

15 of the last 20 Mariners’ games have gone over the total. In the recent weekend series against the Red Sox, the Mariners allowed a total of 34 runs in the three games.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 6 * 

NBA Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[3:30 p.m. EST] Over 213 – Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5, +188 ML) at Denver Nuggets

Five of the six games, including the last five, have gone over the total in this series, so there’s no reason to think today will be any different. Sure, it’s a Game 7 and that means we could see a tightened-up defense, but that’s just not how this matchup has unfolded. The SK Trend Confidence has more faith in the total going over than anything else on the board today!

The Trail Blazers simply have no answer for Nikola Jokic, who has nearly triple-doubled in every game this season. This is, however, why Portland has needed to storm back with so many points in each game. Not to mention, both sides seem to have limitless motors, posting over 100 points total in the second half of each game, and that also speaks to the testament of how close these games have been.

Overall, the SK Trend Confidence likes the Trail Blazers to emerge as the victors in Game 7 over the Nuggets. The trio of Damian Lillard (32), CJ McCollum (30) and Rodney Hood (25) came up big on Thursday night, so look for them to be aggressive once again.

* Final Score Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers: 114 – Denver Nuggets: 112 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 209.5 – Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors (-6, -250 ML)

The grand finale of Game 7s takes place above the border with the Raptors hosting the 76ers. SK’s Trend Confidence loves a Toronto win on the moneyline as the most likely outcome, with the over coming in as the second-best bet.

After the series opened with five straight games going under the total, we’ve now seen two straight overs – both coming in blowouts. It’s also worth noting, as the totals have dropped, the totals have gone over. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing today, as the 209.5 total is the lowest of the series.

As for the Raptors, they have been favored in all but one game of this series. Vegas is telling us they’re the better team, so look for them to capitalize on the home-court advantage and move on to face the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 112 – Philadelphia 76ers: 102 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 53-37-4 (59%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
LAA: Trevor Cahill – R (1-3, 6.95 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 7.43 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

To say Dan Straily isn’t enjoying his time at Camden Yards would be the understatement of the century. The veteran righty has allowed a 2.57 WHIP and eight homers over 14 innings of work there this season – somebody give this man a hug. Mike Trout (9-for-20, 2 doubles, HR), Albert Pujols (10-for-21, double, 2 HR) and Kole Calhoun (3-for-10, double, HR) will sure as hell be happy to see Straily out there tonight.

It should be no surprise that the Angels opened with the highest IRT (5.6) on tonight’s slate, but it has increased drastically up to 6.4 currently. Los Halos’ moneyline increase, from -152 to -178, is one of the highest on the entire day as well.

We dissected Straily’s awful life enough but let’s not leave Trevor Cahill out of the mix either, considering he’s allowed a 2.10 WHIP, 19 runs and nine homers over his last 15 2/3 innings of work. In those last four Cahill outings, the total runs scored have gone something like this: 16, 16, 11, 19. In the words of Dr. Evil, “Riiiiiiiiight.”

This is also the first 11-run total we’ve seen at Camden Yards this season, and there’s a damn good reason for it. We’ve got more than enough evidence here to support numerous cleats touching home plate this evening.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 8 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-1.5, -128)
TEX: Lance Lynn – R (4-2, 5.75 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (5-1, 2.86 ERA/0.87 WHIP)

They don’t make pitchers like Justin Verlander anymore. For most guys, it’s all about pitch counts and saving innings to make sure they’ve got enough left in the tank at the end of the season. Not Verlander, who has thrown at least 94 pitches in every outing this year.

Like many other teams, the Rangers have had a difficult time figuring out one of the best pitchers in the game. This current roster has a 32.1% K-rate against Verlander and a very similar 32.6% whiff rate lifetime. While Texas did attribute to his worst outing this season (and it wasn’t even THAT bad), Verlander followed that up with a masterful seven-inning performance against them in the next meeting.

Over his last 30 outings, Verlander has never had two non-quality starts in back-to-back appearances on the mound. In simpler terms, this guy just doesn’t suck… after sucking. Verlander did allow four runs in his last start, so look for him to dominate in a familiar matchup that has been quite favorable before.

Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Rangers, and he hasn’t been at his best of late. His best outing recently came against a Mariners team that had their heads in the sand for that whole weekend. If we look past that game, Lynn has allowed at least 10 baserunners and had three strikeouts or fewer in three of his last four outings.

The Astros have the best 1.5 run-line odds of any team on tonight’s slate and it shouldn’t be a huge surprise with Verlander on the mound. Not to mention, Houston ranks at the top of nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching and Lynn has been getting hit more frequently by right-handed bats, which the Astros have plenty of.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Texas Rangers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -112)
DET: Tyson Ross – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA/1.62 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

This could end up being the biggest mismatch of the night, so let’s take advantage of it. Good, great, grand, wonderful… everybody on the bus!

Jake Odorizzi has been filthy over his last four starts for the Twins, allowing only three runs over the last 24 1/3 innings – in the last two starts (vs. HOU, @NYY), he has pitched 13 scoreless innings, allowing six hits and five walks (0.85 WHIP) ball while striking out 15. The Tigers have struck out at a 29% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days and that lines up perfectly their bottom-five advanced metrics in MLB against righties in nearly every category this season.

Tyson Ross goes for the Tigers, and he’s had some back issues to deal with of late. That could be a big reason for allowing 21 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings of work. Not only that, but the Tigers have lost each of his last two starts by a combined score of 26-7. Add in the fact that they lost 13-0 yesterday and you can pick up what I’m putting down. On the flip side, the Twins have won their last three games by a combined score of 20-1.

While we’re piling on Detroit, let’s not forget to mention that Minnesota’s .237 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching ranks first in all of baseball this season, and over the last 14 days it’s actually at .288 in that split – for reference, a .200 ISO is good and about .175 is the league average.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 50-35-4 (59%) *

[6:35 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-3, 4.91 ERA/1.51 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (1-3, 4.93 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

The finale of a four-game set takes place in The Bronx tonight, with each of the previous three reaching at least nine runs. I feel like we’ll see more of the same in this game, as both pitchers have some major trends working against them.

Mike Leake takes the mound for the Mariners and hasn’t been his best of late, allowing 23 hits, 16 runs (12 earned) and six homers over the last 17 innings. Right-handed batters have been ripping Leake to the tune of a .373 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, .716 slugging percentage and 1.108 OPS in 69 plate appearances this season. The Yanks’ projected lineup has seven righties in it tonight, including the first six. Not to mention, Seattle’s 41 errors (most in all of MLB, nine more than the three teams tied for second-most) could certainly lead to more runs for New York.

J.A. Happ hasn’t been at his best of late either, especially at home. The lefty is 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts at Yankee Stadium, with seven homers allowed in 20 innings and an opposing .321 batting average. In comparison, Happ is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three road starts, with two homers allowed in 18 1/3 innings and an opposing .194 batting average. While the Mariners’ bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they were over the first 15 games, they still rank in the top five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

The total has gone over in 12 of the last 16 (with one push) Mariners’ games while the Yanks have done the same in 12 of the last 17.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Texas Rangers (+144) at Houston Astros
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.40 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (2-2, 3.20 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

These matchups for the Lone Star Series get kind of wild, just as we saw back in April. However, wild in tonight’s sense means a pitcher’s duel, considering these teams have been posting a lot of overs lately.

Mike Minor looks like a new man, especially of late, as he’s gone at least seven innings in five of the last six starts – he has also posted 22 strikeouts over the last 15 innings. Houston has had plenty of struggles against Minor, as he’s notched a quality start in each of the last four meetings, including seven innings of scoreless ball en route to a win back in early April. The Astros could definitely struggle with Minor once again, considering these well below-average advanced metrics they’ve had against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I can’t believe my eyes, but Wade Miley is actually turning into a well-rounded pitcher as well. The veteran lefty has been quite serviceable with three quality starts over his last four outings – the only misnomer he was one out shy. A few of these Rangers’ bats have had more success against lefties of late, so look for Miley to be slightly less effective than Minor.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is very high on the Rangers and the total going under in this game, and I whole-heartedly agree. Minor is at the top of his game right now, while I can definitely see Miley coming back down to Earth any day now. Today, being that day now.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 5 – Houston Astros: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (2-1, 3.71 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
LAD: Rich Hill – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.30 WHIP)

We’ve got a nice matchup of southpaws going down at Chavez Ravine tonight. Both teams have IRTs (implied run totals) below four runs that currently moving downward as we speak. Oh yes, I’m taking the under on this one.

Patrick Corbin has seen plenty of the Dodgers from his time with the Diamondbacks and only Justin Turner (12-for-29, three doubles, two homers) and Austin Barnes (3-for-10, two homers) have given him much trouble in this matchup. Turner is rocking and rolling at the moment, but he’s only one man. I wouldn’t be too worried about Barnes and his .120 batting average against lefties this season – miss me with that.

Aside from one bad game against a heavy right-handed Cardinals’ lineup, Corbin has notched a quality start in each of his other six outings this season. Given the atrocious nature of the Nats bullpen, you have to think Corbin mans up in this game and takes it at least seven innings for his club.

Rich Hill gets a juicy matchup against a Nationals team dealing with numerous injuries to significant offensive players. Hence, a big reason why they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 11 of the last 13 games. If that wasn’t enough, Washington’s projected lineup for tonight has a 27.7% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

While Hill will likely only pitch about five innings (six at most), the Dodgers’ bullpen owns the fourth-best SIERA and fifth-best xFIP in all of baseball over the last 14 days. Look for Los Angeles to win a close game late in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 48-34-3 (58.5%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +108)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (2-4, 6.69 ERA/1.76 WHIP)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-1, 3.16 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

OK, enough is enough already with these White Sox taking games against the Indians. Chicago got the first two games of this series and now trot out Reynaldo Lopez and his 1.76 WHIP, which ranks second-worst of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings under his belt. If Cleveland ever had a pitcher to break out of its recent offensive funk, Lopez is certainly the guy to help out.

The Tribe is rolling out Shane Bieber, who has notched a quality start in five of his last six outings. While the White Sox did hang nine runs on Monday night against Trevor Bauer, they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games.

Call this revenge, call this a team that’s due – call it what you will. The Indians are going to make up for their recent misfortunes in a big way today.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -166) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (4.71 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The Red Sox have the highest moneyline increase (-245 to -281) on the slate and massive -166 odds on the 1.5 run-line. Needless to say, things are shaping up nicely for the defending champs on the road tonight.

Chris Sale is coming off his best outing of the season – no coincidence that it came against his former team – as he pitched six innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. The lanky lefty is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against the Orioles since he joined the Red Sox. Not to mention, Baltimore has the lowest IRT (3.1) on the slate and have struck out at a zaftig 27.3% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Bird Gang, and he’s been prone to have a surprisingly good outing every now and again. Luckily, his outings don’t last too long, with only two of his seven starts going for six innings or more. That’s good news, considering the Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA (6.13) in the American League and second-worst in all of baseball.

I expect the Red Sox to get off to a slow start offensively and then finally hammer this thing home late, with Sale, of course, keeping the Orioles off the scoreboard for most of the night. The SK Trend Confidence for the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line is one of the highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5, -110)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-3, 5.09 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-2, 5.28 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The Astros got rolled up and smoked in front of their home fans last night, so I’d expect them to come out with a focused mindset this evening. Houston ranks in the top five of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching, so there’s no surprise that its 5.7 IRT is the highest on tonight’s slate.

Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez hasn’t fared well of late, allowing four runs in each of his last four starts. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kansas City has lost six of his seven starts this season.

Brad Peacock takes the mound for Houston, and he just simply hasn’t been at his best this season, as was evident in that last start against the Twins. While we don’t look at the Royals as a powerhouse offense, they’re a pesky bunch that gets the job done in a variety of ways. Hell, they did just post 12 runs last night.

I feel like the Astros on the 1.5 run-line is a solid play, but the over is what really grabs my attention.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 46-33-3 (58.4%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -130) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Hector Rodriguez – R (0-2, 3.72 ERA)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-4, 5.34 ERA)

The defending champs had themselves a big dip in production for the series opener last night. After scoring a total of 55 runs in the previous seven games, the Red Sox managed to put up only one run against a talented young lefty in John Means on Monday night. Don’t expect that slump to last too long for Boston, especially with David Hess going for Baltimore. In fact, the current Red Sox roster has a combined .317 batting average, 1.088 OPS and six homers in 66 career plate appearances against Hess.

Boston will be going with a bullpen-by-committee game and that has been a productive unit of late, with the fifth-best SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) and seventh-best xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) in baseball over the last seven days. The Orioles’ offense hasn’t been great as usual, scoring three runs or fewer in six of the last nine games.

I’m looking for the Red Sox to put one of their patented poundings on the Orioles at Camden Yards, just as they have done so many times in the past. The SK Trend Confidence has the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line as one of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-108) – Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (3-1, 3.45 ERA)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (0-1, 8.44 ERA)

We’re seeing a lot of unders come out in recent Brewers and Nationals games of late. In fact, Brew Crew games have gone under the total in six of the last nine, while the Nats have suffered that fate in five of the last seven.

I’m banking on the Washington side of things to carry us to victory tonight, with Stephen Strasburg’s recent performances and the number of injuries piling up in the Nationals lineup. Strasburg has a 0.78 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and only three runs allowed over his last 21 2/3 innings of work and the current Brewers lineup owns a .197 lifetime batting average against him. Meanwhile, a Nats lineup that is missing Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmermann has now scored three runs or fewer in nine of the last 11 games.

It may not look great on the surface for the Brewers with Adrian Houser starting on the mound, but that’s just for show. Milwaukee will be going the “opener” route, opting to use the struggling Freddy Peralta at another point during the game. If needed, I’m sure Bernie the Brewer could pitch effectively tonight against this struggling Nats offense.

All in all, Strasburg should be the one dictating the low-scoring game with another dominant outing. Look for the Brewers and their combination of pitchers to get the job done as well. The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under and the Brewers moneyline as two of its favorite plays of the night.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-110) – Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.00 ERA)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 1.73 ERA)

It’s going to be a frigid one at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures in the mid-40s and the wind blowing in from left-center field at 12 mph, as two talented southpaws take the mound.

Caleb Smith has quietly been putting together an All-Star-level start to the season with a 3-0 record, 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 45 strikeouts over 36 innings. In fact, Smith has qualified for a quality start in each of his last five outings.

Jon Lester has been simply magnificent this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts – one being cut short due to a hamstring injury. Nonetheless, Lester had his best start of the season in his last outing, 35 miles away from where he grew up, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball while striking out eight Mariners in Seattle. Also, the Marlins offense ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics overall and against left-handed pitching.

The 6.5-total, weather and an excellent duo of starting pitchers lend itself to plenty of pessimism for runs going up on the scoreboard tonight. Should be a fun game to watch, though. You know, if you hate offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 2 – Miami Marlins: 1 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-120) – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (1-4, 3.92 ERA)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (2-1, 4.03 ERA)

It’s always a risky proposition to take the under at Coors Field but we’re trusting the SK Trend Confidence rating on this game, which has one of the highest grades for both teams here. And it’s interesting, considering both teams have posted a ton of overs lately – the Giants in eight of the last 10 and Rockies in nine of the last 11.

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for San Francisco, and while his 1-4 record doesn’t look great, he does have a 1.10 WHIP and solid numbers against Colorado. In fact, MadBum posted his only win of the season against the Rockies back on April 13.

Antonio Senzatela has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his four starts this season. Even better news is that Senzatela is 5-0 with a 3.36 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) against the Giants since 2016.

We might be cutting it close here on the total, but we’re placing a ton of faith in the system this evening – and you should too.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 4 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 45-32-3 (58.4%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, -130)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (0-3, 8.33 ERA)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)

It’s been a rough start to 2019 for Ivan Nova, to say the least, allowing 48 hits and 29 runs over 31 1/3 innings. Things won’t be getting any easier as he’ll face the Indians, who have absolutely destroyed Nova lifetime. In fact, the Tribe’s current roster owns a combined .379 batting average, .446 on-base percentage and 1.082 OPS against him in 73 career plate appearances.

Trevor Bauer has suddenly become somewhat of a generous pitcher, allowing 10 walks over his last 15 innings of work. Luckily, he has handled this White Sox with relative ease since 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 outings. Not to mention, the current Pale Hose roster owns a combined .192 batting average, .242 on-base percentage and 32.6% K-rate in 175 career plate appearances against Bauer.

Because of the history with these two starting pitchers against their respective opponents, bettors will get much more value on the Indians with the 1.5 run-line at -130, as opposed to the -250 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 3 *

[7:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-122) – Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
MIN: Martin Perez – L (4-0, 3.41 ERA)
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (1-4, 2.20 ERA)

Both of these starting pitchers have had great success this season, despite the traditional numbers not looking all that glamorous. Success, of course, meaning keeping opposing runs off the scoreboard.

In fact, Martin Perez has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four outings, while Stroman has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season. Stroman’s only misnomer came in his last outing at Anaheim, but he’s a crafty veteran that rarely has two bad outings in a row. Perez should benefit from facing a Blue Jays team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

Also helping the under this game is the fact that Toronto has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last six games.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3*

[8:05 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (1-3, 4.86 ERA)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.19 ERA)

The Cubs just completed a three-game sweep over the rival Cardinals, so that brings their winning streak to seven games, and they are now 16-4 over their last 20. It shouldn’t be too hard for Chicago to continue their dominant run, facing a Miami team that has scored three runs or fewer in 18 of its last 23 games.

Cole Hamels takes the ball for the Cubbies and he’ll go up against a Marlins team that ranks in the bottom five of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching. The former World Series MVP has been his usual dominant self, with a 1.09 WHIP, and that’s even going against tough competition like the Brewers, Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers. One of those starts, though, was versus this stagnant Miami offense and Hamels pitched seven innings of shutout ball to get the win back on April 17.

Bettors should feel quite confident going with the Cubs on the 1.5 run-line, considering Hamels has managed to get an average of eight runs of support in his six starts this season. Although the game total sits at seven, I expect Chicago to post all the runs on the scoreboard tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – Miami Marlins: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 44-32-2 (58%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-1, 2.81 ERA)
BAL: John Means – L (3-3, 2.81 ERA)

Light rain is expected to fall throughout the entire game today, which will likely keep the offenses at bay quite a bit. Vegas already thinks so, as the Rays (-0.6) and Orioles (-0.4) have the largest- and third-largest IRT decreases on the entire slate.

Johns Means is getting a matchup against a normally-stout Rays offense, but they do have the highest K-rate (30.1%) against left-handed pitching this season. Tampa did go without a hit from the second-to-seventh innings in last night’s game and was only blanked on the scoreboard for the second time this season.

I’m usually a big fan of the Rays whenever they get to play the matchups in their patented “bullpen games.” The rain, however, does throw things off a bit, as Tampa hasn’t necessarily detailed its plan to the public just yet. All in all, though, these matchups are typically a good thing. Especially against an Orioles offense that has scored three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games.

Lastly, the weather is our friend here. If the rain does end up becoming problematic, it’s possible that the game gets called earlier than in nine innings. That would be music to our ears, as fewer innings would likely lead to fewer runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Oakland A’s at Pittsburgh Pirates
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.97 ERA)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (2-1, 2.42 ERA)

Vegas has already spoken on this game with IRT decreases (Pirates: -0.6, A’s: -0.4) for both sides. However, what’s great here is that the game-total only dropped a half-run down to 8.0, not 7.5. Thanks, Vegas!

Frankie Montas and Jordan Lyles are two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, so I look forward to these two showcasing their talents. Both teams rank in the bottom-third of wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) and wRC+ (weighted created-runs plus) against right-handed pitching, thus giving further evidence that this should be a low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

[4:00 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -148) at Los Angeles Angels
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-2, 6.54 ERA)

The current Angels’ lineup has a combined .169 batting average, .240 on-base percentage and .542 OPS lifetime against Justin Verlander – yikes! In fact, not one of them has a batting average over .300 in this matchup.

Matt Harvey takes the mound for the Halos, and he’s pitched well in each of his last two starts. However, one of those was against a Yankees team that traveled across the country and a Royals offense that just isn’t all that threatening.

Vegas isn’t buying Harvey’s recent success either, as the 1.5 run-line has favorable -146 juice on it. Not to mention, the Astros moneyline increase from -185 to -235 is BY FAR the largest on the entire slate. And speaking of increases, Houston’s IRT increase of 5.3 to 6.0 is also the largest for any team today.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 2 *