Author: Al Walsh

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Game 3, NBA Finals: Toronto Raptors (+4.5, -105) at Golden State Warriors

It’s incredibly difficult to gauge this game without truly knowing the status of Klay Thompson. The part that is even more frustrating is that this decision likely won’t be up to him – rather, the Warriors’ training staff. Klay’s mobility will be tested out in pregame warmups, and a decision will be made at that time.

If Thompson is unable to go, it’ll be a huge advantage for the visiting Raptors, who actually won here in Oakland by 20 points back in December. Not only does he provide an unlimited outside range, but Klay’s defense is just flat out dominant. Losing two big aspects like that could be too much for even the almighty Warriors to overcome.

Aside from the first six minutes of the third quarter in Game 2, you can argue that the Raptors have controlled this series. Their length has proven to be difficult for the smaller Warriors, and if Klay does indeed miss tonight’s game, you have to believe the Raptors will throw box-and-1 and double-team defenses at him all night.

It is worth noting, the Warriors have either lost or won by single-digits in five of their seven home playoff games during this run. For the final score prediction, I’ll give it to Raptors with the assumption Klay sits out. If he’s in, I think the Warriors win, but without covering the spread.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 108 – Golden State Warriors: 104 *

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 95-77-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (ML: -130) at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.71 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
CLE: bullpen game

By the way, I just want to mention how utterly furious I am at the onset. I had this gorgeous article written up for this game and how Carlos Carrasco was going to get beat over the head. Well, at about 3:00 p.m. EST, Carrasco was scratched and announced that he’ll be heading to the injured list.

Sigh. The life of a sports betting writer…

Our system has a B+ for Minnesota on the moneyline, and that was even when Carlos Carrasco was supposed to take the mound. Now, it’ll be a bullpen game for the Indians. Tyler Clippard will take the first inning and then it’s all up in the air from there. It is worth noting, though, that the Indians’ bullpen has the sixth-worst xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) over the last seven days. Oliver Perez is pretty much the only exception, but he probably won’t be used since he’s already pitched 4 2/3 innings over the last seven days, including throwing an inning last night.

Minnesota has been crushing baseballs all season, leading MLB in homers. Looking at it in a closer prism, though, the Twins’ projected lineup owns a massive .354 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and .278 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. I assume they’ll some mostly right-handers tonight.

Martin Perez’s last start was his worst outing of the season, allowing six hits and six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Prior to that disaster, Perez had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, while averaging about 6 1/3 innings per outing over that span. It also helps that the Indians own the sixth-lowest wOBA in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Behind Perez is the Minnesota bullpen, which ranks in the top-three of MLB of most advanced pitching metrics over the last 14 days.

Two trends to look at heading into tonight:
– Twins are 15-4 after a loss this season
– Twins are 21-10 in road games this season

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.74 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Two outstanding lefties take the mound at Globe Life Park tonight. I’m usually nervous about taking the under in Texas with humid conditions, but not with John Means and Mike Minor going toe-to-toe.

Let’s start with the homey Minor, who owns a 2.50 ERA in six home starts this season. Unfortunately, he would’ve had better numbers, but a trashy fifth-inning defensive performance and a homer that scraped the foul pole in his last outing thwarted that. Discredit that one bad inning and ride Minor to a low total tonight. Yeehaw!

On the other side, Means has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts since being placed in the starting rotation. In fact, he allowed only run in four of those starts. Means has already pitched well in environments like Camden Yards, Coors Field, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium – so what’s the big deal adding some Globe Life Park to the mix? Not to mention, the Rangers have a putrid .280 xwOBA and .139 ISO over the last 14 days against left-handed pitching.

Even with the humid conditions, Vegas dropped the IRTs for both sides (Orioles: -0.2, Rangers: -0.3) while the game total went from 9.5 to 9.0 as well. Neither team’s bullpen is one that I want to trust, but I’ll give the Rangers the edge at home after dropping one last night.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 4 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (2-3, 4.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (4-3, 3.94 ERA/1.58 WHIP)

Weather permitting, we should have ourselves a good ole fashioned slugfest at Busch Stadium. The conditions are great for hitting, with temperatures in the upper-80s and humidity playing a big factor.

Vegas has taken notice, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Cardinals: +0.7, Reds: +0.4) and the game total from 8.5 to 9.5. Both of these teams have been playing to a lot of totals going under of late, so it makes the Vegas movement even more intriguing.

Anthony DeSclafani, from the great state of New Jersey, has been getting ripped over his last five starts. The righty has allowed 31 hits, 19 runs and nine over the last 23 1/3 innings of work. The heart of the Cards’ order has hit DeSclafani well over the course of their careers, so look for that to continue on Wednesday.

Dakota Hudson has been doing a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but a lot of these Reds’ hitters can still make life difficult on him. Cincy did put eight baserunners (seven hits, one walk) up against him in their previous meeting. Not to mention, they have a fantastic .347 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Cincinnati Reds: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 93-76-4 (55%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -102) at Pittsburgh Pirates
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-3, 3.19 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (2-1, 5.87 ERA/1.60 WHIP)

Any time the Braves are going against a lefty, they’re getting immediate consideration from me. Steven Brault may have pitched well in each of his last two starts, but I’m not fooled by who this guy really is. In fact, his control issues are truly scary, allowing 14 free passes over his last 22 innings of work – yikes!!!

Not to mention, Atlanta is absolutely hammering lefties over the last 14 days with a .372 xwOBA (metric for quality contact) and .255 ISO (metric for power) – both numbers are in elite territory. If Brault’s control issues continue to be a problem, Atlanta will make him pay for all of those extra baserunners.

Brault typically doesn’t go too deep into games, but that’s still fine for Braves’ bats. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates’ bullpen ranks in the bottom five of MLB in most advanced metrics.

When we talk about the Pirates’ bats against left-handed pitching it’s the exact opposite, as they rank third-worst in wOBA (weighted on-base average) at .282. While Pittsburgh isn’t striking out much over the last 14 days against lefties, a good portion of its lineup isn’t making much quality contact either.

Max Fried doesn’t strike a ton of batters out, but his 55% ground-ball rate should play well against the Pirates. It also helps that PNC Park is one of the worst hitting/power parks for right-handed batters, playing right into Fried’s strengths.

The Braves’ moneyline increase (-130 to -166) is the third-highest on tonight’s full slate of games. I don’t mind taking the 1.5-run line here, considering 15 of the Pirates’ 16 losses since the start of May have come by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 3 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-4, 3.06 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-2, 7.58 ERA/1.47 WHIP)

We’ve got two lefties going toe-to-toe at Comerica Park tonight, and I like the total to go under 8.5 runs. But, of course, we’re looking for Blake Snell to be the one that carries us there.

Snell has been fantastic, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 outings. While the Tigers have been a bit more pesky of late, Snell is in a totally different category. He hasn’t had all of these 10-plus strikeout games that we’ve been accustomed to, but he is keeping runs off the scoreboard.

Ryan Carpenter has been much better over his last two starts, allowing two runs each time out. The key here is Tampa Bay against lefties, who own the highest K-rate (30%) in that split this season. Not to mention, the numbers have really shown their struggles against lefties over the last 14 days, as the Rays own a putrid .285 xwOBA, .150 ISO and 26% K-rate.

The Rays are much better on the road, so I’ll give them the nudge there. Especially having Snell on the mound will help too.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (1.5-run line: -130)
COL: Jeff Hoffman – R (1-1, 7.20 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (5-4, 3.09 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

The Rockies come off a fantastic 9-1 homestand, but let’s simmer it down a bit. They did face the Orioles and Blue Jays for six of those games. And sure, the four-game sweep of the D-Backs was impressive, even though three of the wins came by one run.

I think they get a good dose of reality tonight at Wrigley Field, where the Cubs really need to get rolling. Not to mention, there’s a little bit of revenge factor here as the Rockies defeated the Cubs in the Wild Card game last season.

We know who Jeff Hoffman is. The righty’s abysmal numbers in three starts this season are right on par with what he’s done over his career. While Hoffman has been much better away from Coors Field, the conditions in Chicago will make it feel somewhat similar, as the winds will be blowing out to left-center field at about 10-12 mph tonight.

On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks is well-equipped to deal with these friendly hitting conditions. I’ve said it before, and I’ll continue to say it, but Hendricks is a homeless man’s Greg Maddux. The veteran righty hits his spots and it has been incredible to see him get more strikeouts than ever. While the Rockies’ numbers are a bit inflated from their recent homestand, they do tend to have their fair share of swings and misses.

Given the higher total than usual for Wrigley Field, the Cubs have the highest moneyline increase (-180 to -225) of the night and +0.4 IRT increase, let’s fly the W flag – on the 1.5-run line here as well.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 93-74-4 (55.7%) *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-0, 4.18 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (4-4, 4.45 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The two most-sought-after free agents from this offseason will go head-to-head for the first time with their new ball clubs. Each of these teams will also be looking to get back on the good foot after losing some games recently – the Phils with four straight and the Padres with five in their last seven.

Aaron Nola has been a solid mix of good and lucky with the number of walks he’s allowed, but tonight’s outing should veer more to the side of dominant. The Padres have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days, with a .294 wOBA, .166 ISO and 30.2% K-rate. Nola has allowed exactly one run in five of his last seven outings, so the Padres could be in for trouble once again.

Eric Lauer will be pitching on his 24th birthday and he’s been fantastic lately, allowing only three earned runs over his last 18 innings. In fact, Lauer’s only bad outing since early April came at Coors Field against the Rockies’ talented lineup. The home/road splits have been much more in his favor at PETCO Park, where Lauer has a 2.67 ERA, as opposed to the 6.84 ERA he’s amassed on the road.

All in all, both offenses haven’t been great over the last 14 days. Perhaps, the Phils get a couple of solo shots out of the yard tonight, but it appears like we’ll have a classic low-scoring game in San Diego.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – San Diego Padres: 1 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
HOU: Corbin Martin – R (1-1, 5.51 ERA/1.71 WHIP)
SEA: Wade LeBlanc – L (1-1, 6.99 ERA/1.66 WHIP)

The Astros’ offense hasn’t been as dominant without the trio of Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa all on the shelf, but they’ll certainly have a chance to do some major damage tonight.

Wade LeBlanc has gotten beat around in the majority of his starts this season, and that has certainly produced a lot of runs in those outings. In fact, the six outings which LeBlanc has started this season have averaged a game-total of 16 runs. Yikes! Bad for the Mariners, but good for us bettors of the over tonight.

One thing always working against the Mariners is their defense, which leads MLB with 69 errors – 22 more than the second-worst team. Seattle’s offense can add some fuel to the over here as well, as its 106 homers rank second-best in MLB and 41 stolen bases rank third.

Corbin Martin hasn’t been that same dominant pitcher that we all remember from his MLB debut on Mother’s Day. In his most recent outing, the Cubs’ offense lit him up for three solo homers in 3 2/3 innings. Speaking on the Mariners’ power above, they should be able to take advantage of Martin’s recent struggles. Sure, Jay Bruce has moved on to Philly (and he probably won’t be the last player on this team to be traded), but they do have enough guys to fill the power void.

The proof is in the pudding when LeBlanc takes the mound – runs go on the board. Martin should serve up a long ball or two, giving us a nice path to the over tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 6 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 89-71-4 (55.6%) *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-108) – San Francisco Giants (ML: -136) at Baltimore Orioles
SF: Shaun Anderson – R (0-1, 4.80 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-6, 6.71 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

These two teams combined to score 11 runs in the first inning last night and it looks like we should see plenty of the same tonight.

For one, Orioles’ starter David Hess has been doing nothing but getting ripped all over the yard. To give you an idea of how bad it’s been, the righty has allowed four runs or more in seven of his last nine outings – yikes! Not to mention, Hess has now allowed 10 homers in his last 19 2/3 innings of work.

Shaun Anderson hasn’t been much better, albeit in only three career starts thus far. The young righty has allowed a total of 17 hits and eight runs (six earned) over his last 10 innings of work. All three of the games he’s pitched in so far have been at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco – Anderson will not have that luxury today, pitching in one of (if not) the best hitting parks in baseball.

All in all, we’re looking at two starting pitchers that have been touched up quite a bit in their time in the Majors. Probably a good reason why Vegas increased the game-total from 9.5 to 10.5, with both teams subsequently seeing their IRTs raised as well – Giants: +0.6, Orioles: +0.3. Together, all of those increases usually add up to a lot of runs.

Giants’ games have gone over the total in seven of the last nine, while Orioles’ games have done the same in eight of their last 11. I’m also going to take the Giants’ moneyline with the bigger IRT increase coming into this one.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 6 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -142)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-3, 4.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (5-1, 1.07 ERA/0.89 WHIP)

OK, let’s try this again. Earlier this week the Braves had a zaftig 0.8 IRT increase (just as they do today), but it was actually the Nationals that ended up having the big offensive night. I’m willing to bet that won’t happen against Mike Soroka, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball, allowing one run or fewer in all eight of his starts this season.

Probably a good reason why Atlanta brings the highest moneyline increase (-215 to -255) of the day into this game.

The Tigers ripped Mike Foltynewicz to shreds last night, but that’s even more reason for the Braves to come out strong in this one. I find it very hard to believe that one of the league’s worst teams will come into Atlanta and win two straight games. Especially with Soroka pitching at such an elite level.

While the Tigers got their kicks off last night, the Braves will look to do the same today. Atlanta owns the sixth-best wOBA (.338) against left-handed pitching this season. On the flip side, Detroit has the second-worst wOBA (.282) against right-handed pitching.

This should be a nice and easy win for the Braves today, so I’m going with the 1.5-run line here.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 31

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 87-69-4 (55.8%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (ML: -150) at New York Yankees
BOS: Chris Sale – L (1-6, 4.19 ERA/1.06 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (4-3, 5.09 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

Chris Sale has been ridiculous over his last seven starts, striking out 74 hitters in 44 1/3 innings. This matchup has frequently gone well for the lanky lefty in the past, as Sale owns a 33.2% K-rate against the Yankees’ current roster.

While the Bronx Bombers have played well so far this season, they’ve been doing it against subpar competition. Not only that, but the Yankees have really struggled against left-handed pitching, with a .272 wOBA, .143 ISO and 33.8% K-rate over the last 14 days.

The Red Sox have been the polar opposite against lefties, tearing them up for a .368 wOBA and .223 ISO over the last 14 days. Most of J.A. Happ’s struggles have come at Yankee Stadium this season, as he’s 2-3 with a 5.93 ERA and nine homers allowed in 30 1/3 innings. The month of May hasn’t been kind to Happ either, as the lefty has a massive 5.61 ERA.

Look for Steve Pearce to have a big night against Happ because this is a matchup he’s dominated in the past. Pearce is 11-for-35 against Happ with a whopping six homers over his career. It’s also a good sign that three different Red Sox (J.D. Martinez: +210, Rafael Devers: +260, Michael Chavis: +270) have favorable odds on their home run prop tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – New York Yankees: 3 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-110) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-4, 3.99 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
CHW: Dylan Covey – R (0-4, 5.47 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Trevor Bauer has been surprisingly bad more than a few times this season. In fact, he has now allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts. This includes his last outing against the White Sox, where Bauer allowed 10 hits, eight runs (seven earned) and two homers over five innings back on May 6.

Dylan Covey hasn’t been much better, but we expect that from him. The righty has allowed five homers 13 walks over the last 20 1/3 innings – control issues and getting ripped, yikes!

If you couldn’t tell by now, over 10 runs is the play here. We’ve got 11 mph winds blowing out to left field and the two teams saw their IRTs jump significantly – Indians: +0.7, White Sox: +0.4.

One last nugget that should bode well, is that each of the last five Indians’ games has gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 6 * 

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 (-106) – Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -156)
TOR: Edwin Jackson – R (0-2, 9.00 ERA/1.64 WHIP)
COL: German Marquez – R (5-2, 3.56 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Edwin Jackson just doesn’t have the goods to compete with this Rockies’ squad with the friendly hitting conditions at Coors Field — the wind will be blowing out to right-center field at 11 mph. Vegas knows this as well, and that’s why Colorado’s 7.6 IRT is a full 1.8 better than the second-highest mark on the slate. Jackson has allowed a total of 13 runs (12 earned) over his last nine innings of work and things don’t appear to be getting any better tonight. The Blue Jays have lost his last two starts by a combined score of 31-6.

That is a good enough reason to take the Rockies on the 1.5-run line alone. However, the total going over 11.5 runs is quite appealing here as well. The Rockies should do a fine job putting up runs on their own, but their starter German Marquez has struggled more in Colorado this season. These splits are absolutely staggering, as he’s allowed 49 hits and a .327 opposing batting average in 35 innings at home – compared to 25 hits and a .167 opposing batting average in 43 1/3 innings on the road.

We’re going to see plenty of guys on base tonight, and the Rockies will come up bigger in the clutch.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 12 – Toronto Blue Jays: 6 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 1: Golden State Warriors (ML: +120) at Toronto Raptors

Game 1 of the NBA Finals starts tonight and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the Golden State moneyline at +102. While the Raptors were battling it out in seven games, the Warriors were able to sit back and study their opponent. Now, DeMarcus Cousins will be available for tonight’s game, giving the Warriors yet another weapon at their disposal.

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 84-67-4 (56%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-118) – Milwaukee Brewers (ML: -125) at Pittsburgh Pirates
MIL: Chase Anderson – R (2-0, 3.25 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
PIT: Joe Musgrove – R (3-5, 4.27 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The only game with an A-grade on the SK Trend Confidence rating is the under on tonight’s game between the Brewers and Pirates. Phil Cuzzi, an extreme pitcher’s umpire, will be behind the plate and that lends more optimism to us winning this bet. In fact, Cuzzi has been behind the plate for 349 games over his career and the offenses have combined for a microscopic .311 on-base percentage – that’s the second-fewest for any home plate umpire with at least 100 games.

Most of the efficient pitching should come from the Brewers’ side of things with Chase Anderson starting on the mound. While he hasn’t been going deep into games, Anderson has been able to hold it down for the bullpen, not allowing more than three runs in any of his nine outings this season.

Joe Musgrove hasn’t been at his best lately, but neither have the Brewers’ bats. Over the last 14 days, Milwaukee has an anemic .304 xwOBA – a metric used to dictate quality of hit balls. Six of the last nine Brewers games have gone under the total, so look for that trend to continue tonight.

I’m going to take the Brewers on the moneyline as well, but the SK system is certainly in love with the under here.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 10 (-110) – Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (ML: -154)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-5, 5.58 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-3, 2.55 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

Very strong data is coming in all over this game between the Royals and Rangers. The SK Trend Confidence rating loves the Rangers and the under, both with grades of B+.

A big reason for both of those possible outcomes is Mike Minor, who is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts at Globe Life Park this season. The remodeled veteran has been straight filthy, and that’s bad news for a Royals team that has the third-worst wOBA (.276) against left-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, KC has putrid .262 wOBA and .036 ISO numbers against lefties over the last 14 days.

Jakob Junis has his work cut out for him, going against a talented Rangers’ lineup. Texas has been much better at home, compiling a 17-8 record at Globe Life Park, compared to its 10-18 record on the road. The Royals haven’t offered up much help for their boy Junis, losing seven of his last 10 starts, including each of the last four.

I really don’t mind going with the Rangers on the 1.5-run line at +112 here, but I’m going to keep it simple and just roll with the moneyline. I’ll kick myself later.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -140)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (1-2, 5.22 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (7-1, 1.65 ERA/0.83 WHIP)

The Mets just keep doing Mets things – don’t ever change!

After last night’s catastrophic loss in the ninth inning, there’s no way these guys can pick themselves up off the ground. Especially going against one of (if not) the best pitchers in the National League this season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been dealing heartbreaks on the mound all year, so what’s another one? In fact, Ryu has been even more lethal at home in Dodger Stadium, with a 5-0 record, 1.22 ERA and only one walk in 37 innings of work.

I’m absolutely astonished at how well Jason Vargas has pitched this season, but this all has to be coming to an end shortly. The Dodgers have done well against left-handed pitching too, and that’s probably because they have plenty of experience. No other team in MLB has more plate appearances (716) against lefties than LA. Quite fascinating!

All in all, this is just too tough of a spot for the Mets tonight. The Dodgers have handled them all series and will do so again.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 – New York Mets: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 82-64-4 (56.2%) * <— includes Monday’s KC/CHW continuation game

 

[7:10 p.m. EST] Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -124)
TOR: Trent Thornton – R (1-4, 4.42 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-4, 3.07 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

The Rays are massive favorites tonight and it comes with plenty of good reasoning. So much, in fact, that their 1.5-run line odds are the highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the evening. Tampa comes in winning five of its last six games, with all of the victories coming by two runs or more.

Blake Snell takes the mound for the Rays and he’s been outstanding of late, allowing a total of four runs and striking out 37 batters over his last 24 1/3 innings of work. That’s bad news for the Blue Jays, who own the third-worst wOBA (.275) and ninth-worst K-rate (25.2%) against left-handed pitching. Snell faced Toronto already once this season and allowed only one hit and one walk while striking out nine over six innings. The current Blue Jays’ roster also has a microscopic .145 batting average and .217 on-base percentage in 68 plate appearances against Snell.

No surprise at all that Toronto has the lowest IRT (2.9) on tonight’s slate, considering their .234 wOBA and .118 ISO marks against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Trent Thornton takes the mound for the Blue Jays and he’ll have a tough task as the Rays rank fourth in wRC+ (116) and seventh in wOBA (.340) against right-handed pitching this season. Control has been an issue for Thornton of late, with nine of them issued in his last 17 2/3 innings of work. Back on April 12, the Rays rocked him in Tampa for eight hits and five runs (three homers) over three innings.

It’s a massive mismatch of starting pitchers at Tropicana Field, so look for the Rays to take the early lead and coast to victory tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 0 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-106) – Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: +120)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-6, 5.10 ERA/1.68 WHIP)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (2-3, 4.33 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

We just talked about the team with the lowest IRT of the night, so it’s only right to gloat about the team with the highest of the night. Atlanta’s 6.0 IRT tops them all and we get even better news since it increased +0.8 from the 5.2-mark initially set, while they also have the highest moneyline increase of the night.

Folks, I start putting down-payments on yachts when I see movement like this! Sure, the moneyline sounds fun, but getting plus-money on the 1.5-run line here is the Woodstock of sports betting.

Anibal Sanchez gets the ball fresh off the injured list, and that’s good news for the Braves. The aging righty has yet to win a game and the Nats have lost seven of his nine starts this season. I talk about it in this space all the time, but Washington’s bullpen is absolutely terrible and there’s a good chance we’ll see plenty of them tonight.

While Sanchez might not give up a ton of homers, the Braves will likely put plenty of guys on base tonight. Atlanta is tied for eighth in MLB with a .334 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching and Sanchez has allowed more hits (46) than innings pitched (42 1/3), and his 25 walks won’t help either.

Kevin Gausman had some rough outings to close out April, but this is a new month. The veteran righty has three consecutive quality starts and hasn’t allowed one homer since the calendar flipped to May. I’m not expecting a career-defining performance from Gausman tonight but certainly one that’ll give the Braves some breathing room throughout the game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 4 *  

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Chicago Cubs (ML: -108) at Houston Astros
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (4-4, 3.34 ERA/1.18 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (5-2, 3.32 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

The Astros suffered yet another devastating injury with the loss of Carlos Correa – he’ll join Jose Altuve and George Springer on the injured list. While they’ve done a fine job of navigating without the latter two, this one might be too much to overcome. Vegas knows the deal, and that’s why Houston’s IRT decreased a whopping -0.6 (5.1 to 4.5) for tonight’s game.

When we look at the two starting pitchers for this game, we might not expect much. But that’s a big mistake.

Kyle Hendricks is the homeless man’s Greg Maddux, in that he’s able to get the job done without ever reaching 90 mph on the radar gun. With a depleted Astros’ lineup, look for them to struggle against getting into a rhythm with this crafty right-hander.

Wade Miley is basically the left-handed version of Hendricks, and he’s coming off a season-high eight-strikeout performance against the Red Sox. The Cubs have top-10 advanced metrics against lefties this season, but Miley has only allowed more than three runs once in his 11 starts.

At the end of the day, I like the Cubs to play some desperate baseball and avoid the sweep with their better top-to-bottom lineup. But it won’t be a high-scoring affair.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 4 – Houston Astros: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 79-62-4 (56%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (ML: -111)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-3, 3.27 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.14 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Believe it or not, but it’s the Marlins with the highest moneyline increase of the day (+111 to -111). It makes plenty of sense, considering they’ll be taking on a Giants’ team that flew across the country for one of the longest city-to-city trips in baseball.

That long trip won’t do any favors for San Francisco’s arms, who have been absolutely ripped to shreds lately. The Giants have allowed a total of 48 runs over the last five games, and that was all in their spacious hitter-hating Oracle Park. Jeff Samardzija should be able to neutralize some of the hurt, but he’s only been able to make it to the sixth inning in two of his 10 starts this season.

Trevor Richards takes the mound for Miami and he’s been surprisingly serviceable in the month of May, with a 3.38 ERA in four starts. He looked great, albeit against the Tigers, in his last start with a dominating command of the lower strike zone. Richards will look to cap off the month on a solid note against a Giants team that owns the third-worst wOBA (.285) against right-handed pitching.

Logistically, this is a bad spot for the Giants and Vegas has made the line adjustment. Look for the Marlins to grab the series opener against a fatigued team.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (ML: -112)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.25 ERA/0.99 WHIP)
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-2, 2.88 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

We’re going to get excellent value on the Braves tonight at -112 on the moneyline. Most people may scratch their heads and wonder how with Stephen Strasburg on the mound for the Nationals.

For one, Atlanta has hit Strasburg well over the course of time. The majority of that success comes from Freddie Freeman, who has rocked him for a .354 batting average (17-for-48) with five doubles and four homers. Over Strasburg’s last 11 starts against the Braves, he is 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA.

Also, Strasburg does not pitch well in hot weather. Temperatures in Atlanta should be in the upper-80s/low-90s while he’s on the mound tonight, so look for that to be a detrimental factor. There aren’t any specific numbers on this hindrance for Stras, but coming from the DFS community and knowing a lot of these different nuances about players, this is one that has always stuck in my head.

It also doesn’t help that Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in every category imaginable, including losses (13) and ERA (7.12) – the latter of which is a full run more than the second-worst team. Just yesterday, the Nats’ bullpen blew another lead, making it the fourth time that has happened over the last seven games.

Max Fried takes the hill for Atlanta, and he’s been able to get back to his masterful ways over the last two outings. The young lefty has allowed only 10 baserunners and two runs over his last 12 innings of work, getting the win in both outings. Not to mention, the Braves’ offense hooked up him nicely with a total of 21 runs in those two starts. Atlanta is 7-3 in games that Fried has started this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Washington Nationals: 4 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (ML: -152)
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (2-3, 4.44 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-4, 3.41 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

Now that the Mariners got some looks at Adrian Sampson, they should be able to knock him around a bit tonight. That’s been a common theme, as the righty pitched well against Astros and Pirates the first time around before getting rocked the second time around – and third time, in the Astros’ case.

Seattle will have to wait to face Sampson, though, as Jesse Chavez will serve as the “opener” for the first inning or two in this game. Not to worry, they will get plenty of chances to make it work.

The opposite can be said about the Rangers facing Marco Gonzales, who has a 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 12 strikeouts against them this season. In fact, Gonzales had a season-high nine strikeouts against Texas when they visited Seattle back on April 25. Not to mention, the Rangers own the second-highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season.

Seattle’s lineup looks a little different now with Kyle Seager and Mallex Smith back in action. The Mariners’ bottom of the lineup actually has some sizzle now to it with Smith and Shed Long down at the bottom. That should be able to put some pressure on a Rangers’ team that has allowed the fourth-most stolen bases (33) in baseball. Good news: the Mariners have the second-most stolen bases (38) in baseball.

The early IRT (Mariners: +0.2, Rangers: -0.2) and moneyline (-130 to -152) movements are in favor of the home team, so that’s certainly a positive sign.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 5 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Memorial Day Monday, May 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Alright, last week was just one bad beat after another. Or should I say, one bad error/blown save after the other. Everyone, do your thing that you do – Woosah, Goosfraba, Hakuna Matata… I ain’t gonna judge you. Let’s get the monkey off the back. After all, we’re still 16 games over .500 in this space!

* 2019 MLB Record: 78-62-4 (56%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 10  (-120) – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (moneyline: -114)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-5, 6.13 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (3-4, 6.96 ERA/1.77 WHIP)

Yeah, looking at those numbers above and seeing that we’re liking the under is probably making you scratch your head. I’m a bit nervous myself, but there is some good statistical analysis to bring us there. The SK Trend Confidence does have more faith in the under than any other outcome, considering 13 of the White Sox last 18 games have gone under the total, while the Royals have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 15 games.

For one, White Sox starter Ivan Nova really hasn’t been as bad as usual over the last few weeks. His only blowup outing came against the Blue Jays, who were seeing him for the second time in six days. Nova, despite allowing 10 hits, actually had really good stuff early on against the Astros – a few of those hits found some holes.

It’s also worth mentioning that Chicago has won four of the last five games that Nova has started. Also, our friends over at EV Analytics like him to reach over 3.5 on his K-prop for today – always a good sign.

What really helps Nova today is home plate umpire Bill Miller, who tends to favor pitchers. In fact, Miller has the third-highest K-rate (21%) and second-lowest on-base percentage (.312) of any umpires with at least 200 games under their belt. Vegas has noticed this and adjusted the total to 9.5 on some books – hopefully, you’ll get yours at 10.

The weather should help alleviate some runs as well, as the wind will be blowing in from center field at 10 mph.

All in all, I do like the White Sox to get this win with a good day from Nova.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox  (1.5-run line: +110)
CLE: Jefry Rodriguez – R (1-4, 4.08 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (4-5, 4.45 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under as the most likely outcome in this game. And it makes plenty of sense, considering Indians’ games have gone under the total in 14 of their last 18 games. The Red Sox also had a weekend full of unders in three straight games against the Astros.

Rick Porcello takes the mound for Boston, and he’s been outstanding with five quality starts over the last six outings. Over that stretch, the veteran righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of those outings. The Red Sox offense seems to like when Porcello is on the mound, as they give him an average of 6.4 runs of support in his starts this season.

Jefry Rodriguez has allowed seven hits in three of the last four starts – in the misnomer, he gave up six. It’s interesting that the game total jumped from 9.5 to 10.5, considering how well Porcello has done of late. This leads me to believe the Red Sox will jump all over Rodriguez early and coast to victory.

In terms of value, it makes more sense to bet Boston on the 1.5-run line at +110, as opposed to -180 on the moneyline – the Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has lost six of its last seven games, with each of those losses coming by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *