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[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox
MIA: Zac Gallen – R (0-2, 3.63 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (5-8, 5.76 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
Our free pick today comes to us from the land of The Windy City, as the Marlins wrap up their three-game series against the White Sox. The SpreadKnowledge system has a B+ grade on the total going under in this game, considering the current form of the two starting pitchers and the two offenses. Chicago’s offense has posted two runs or fewer in eight of the last 12 games, while Miami’s offense has done the same in six of the last 10.
Zac Gallen has managed to holt the fort down in all five of his starts this season, allowing no more than three runs any time out – all against quality opponents. We’d like to see him cut down the walks (14 in 22 1/3 innings), but it could work his benefit against a free-swinging White Sox team that has the second-lowest walk-rate (6.5%) in MLB this season.
Not to mention, the White Sox offense has absolutely dreadful advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days — .305 weighted on-base average, .125 ISO (power metric) and 30.4% K-rate.
The team that’s dead-last in walk-rate (6.4%) will be facing Reynaldo Lopez, who has looked absolutely fantastic over his last two starts. Over 13 innings in those outings, Lopez has allowed only nine hits, three walks and two runs while striking out 15 batters. It hasn’t been the most glamorous season for the young righty, but we have seen flashes of dominance from him before and best to strike while the iron is hot.
Miami is either dead-last or right around it in terms of advanced metrics against right-handed pitching this season, so look for Lopez to have one of his best outings to date.
Weather conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field shouldn’t do the offenses any favors tonight, with the winds blowing in slightly at about 5 mph. Obviously, that won’t keep all the balls in the yard, but with the way these two youngsters are hurling it shouldn’t hurt them.
* Final Score Prediction * Chicago White Sox: 4 – Miami Marlins: 2